Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Those are actually hugely encouraging numbers given that:
a) No date has been announced, and
b) We're nowhere near the start of campaigning-proper. 
Give it a few more months of Boris-led incompetency over Brexit, the vehement anti-Scottish sentiment in the papers down south, movement closer to a No Deal Brexit and we should see the numbers slowly rise. An effective campaign, once a date is announced is absolutely crucial. Any sort of hint of the lacklustre, chicken-hearted campaign of 2017 and it's fucked. 
 
 

This.

Boris will be the poster boy of the next campaign.

Every time his face appears or he opens his trap it wins votes for the independence cause.

[welshbairn]

Can't get past the Times firewall but this might be connected. Was expecting the SNP share to be higher but the polls seem to be all over the place at the mo.

 

[John Lambies Doos]

It doesn't! The SNPs best ever result was in 2015 when just under 50% of those who voted chose SNP. In 2016 they got 46% pf the Scottish vote. In 2017 they got less than 38% of the Scottish vote. And turnout in the Scottish Elections seldom gets above 50% whilst the General Elections draw 60% to 70% turnout. 
Given that the Unionist vote is split between three major parties whilst the SNP dominate the nationalist vote I suppose it could be suggested its remarkable the SNP doesn't do even better. 
 

Shut up you fool

[Malky3]

58 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said:

 

Those are actually hugely encouraging numbers given that:

a) No date has been announced, and

b) We're nowhere near the start of campaigning-proper. 

Give it a few more months of Boris-led incompetency over Brexit, the vehement anti-Scottish sentiment in the papers down south, movement closer to a No Deal Brexit and we should see the numbers slowly rise. An effective campaign, once a date is announced is absolutely crucial. Any sort of hint of the lacklustre, chicken-hearted campaign of 2017 and it's fucked. 

The SNP are fucked either way. Given the mess at Westminster even I would have expected support for independence to have been more strident. The fact is people are entrenched and the nationalist tactic of shouting abuse at anyone keen to engage in debate is failing miserably. 

Once Brexit is past there will be much greater scrutiny of the failure of the SNP Government at Holyrood, of finances and of the damaging reality of continuing political uncertainty. I'd expect support to collapse as the cost of Scottish Independence sinks in. 

BTW your calls for more damage, more division and your longing for a no deal Brexit are duly noted. A vote for the SNP is a vote to harm the lives of ordinary Scots. 

Edited October 13, 2019 by Malky3

[welshbairn]

 

[hearthammer]

8 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

The SNP are fucked either way. Given the mess at Westminster even I would have expected support for independence to have been more strident. The fact is people are entrenched and the nationalist tactic of shouting abuse at anyone keen to engage in debate is failing miserably. 

Once Brexit is past there will be much greater scrutiny of the failure of the SNP Government at Holyrood, of finances and of the damaging reality of continuing political uncertainty. I'd expect support to collapse as the cost of Scottish Independence sinks in. 

BTW your calls for more damage, more division and your longing for a no deal Brexit are duly noted. A vote for the SNP is a vote to harm the lives of ordinary Scots. 

If your disenchantment with Scotland, free-thinking Scottish people and the SNP are at the levels reflected in your perpetual invective on here, why do you remain (get it  ??) living here ??  You could be living in your england utopia with like-minded people and enjoy the benefits of eton-esque economics for your type of person.

You choose to stay and bitch incessantly about our apparent 3rd world country, yet your "me/myself/I" outlook and your concomitant wealth (apparently) could have you leave all this drudgery behind in an instant.

[Malky3]

9 minutes ago, hearthammer said:

If your disenchantment with Scotland, free-thinking Scottish people and the SNP are at the levels reflected in your perpetual invective on here, why do you remain (get it  ??) living here ??  You could be living in your england utopia with like-minded people and enjoy the benefits of eton-esque economics for your type of person.

You choose to stay and bitch incessantly about our apparent 3rd world country, yet your "me/myself/I" outlook and your concomitant wealth (apparently) could have you leave all this drudgery behind in an instant.

And here we go again.... Nationalists arguing that if you don't support their cause and don't lap up their propaganda real Scots should f**k off elsewhere! 

I'm not in the minority here. I love Scotland. Its my country, my home, my workplace. I love being part of the most successful political union in history and the wealth and priviledge it gives to us all. I love our freedoms to debate and argue and to hold differing opinions. And I'm proud that I am one of the 55% majority that saved Scotland from Nationalist extremists who want to shut down debate, scream abuse at opponents, and who would distroy Scotlands economy in a heartbeat just to see out their ideological fantasy. 

I'm happy with the status quo. I've asked you and your mates to show me how an independent Scotland would make me better off and you've all spectacularly failed to do so. Scotland will never leave the UK. You are the one bitching about it and trying to effect change you'll never get. Perhaps to ease your frustration you should go elsewhere and leave the majority of Scots who are happy well alone. 

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, hearthammer said:

If your disenchantment with Scotland, free-thinking Scottish people and the SNP are at the levels reflected in your perpetual invective on here, why do you remain (get it  ??) living here ??  You could be living in your england utopia with like-minded people and enjoy the benefits of eton-esque economics for your type of person.

You choose to stay and bitch incessantly about our apparent 3rd world country, yet your "me/myself/I" outlook and your concomitant wealth (apparently) could have you leave all this drudgery behind in an instant.

If I was so inclined I could have posted something similar but using just four words, the last two of which would have been 'to England'.

[hearthammer]

Just now, Granny Danger said:

If I was so inclined I could have posted something similar but using just four words, the last two of which would have been 'to England'.

Kudos for being a tv star.  

[D Angelo Barksdale]

The horse fucking simpleton is absolutely rattled this morning.

Comical Ali levels of delusion here.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

And here we go again.... Nationalists arguing that if you don't support their cause and don't lap up their propaganda real Scots should f**k off elsewhere! 
I'm not in the minority here. I love Scotland. Its my country, my home, my workplace. I love being part of the most successful political union in history and the wealth and priviledge it gives to us all. I love our freedoms to debate and argue and to hold differing opinions. And I'm proud that I am one of the 55% majority that saved Scotland from Nationalist extremists who want to shut down debate, scream abuse at opponents, and who would distroy Scotlands economy in a heartbeat just to see out their ideological fantasy. 
I'm happy with the status quo. I've asked you and your mates to show me how an independent Scotland would make me better off and you've all spectacularly failed to do so. Scotland will never leave the UK. You are the one bitching about it and trying to effect change you'll never get. Perhaps to ease your frustration you should go elsewhere and leave the majority of Scots who are happy well alone. 

I voted Yes and I'm no Nationalist extremist I can assure you. I note however that like every Unionist I've ever spoken to, your default position is one of self-interest with apparently no regard for wider society - that is your choice and entitlement but please desist from disrespecting those of us who believe in a better Scotland, one which will be free of the suffocating, archaic and downright dangerous orthodoxies of post-Empire Britain.

But here's a thing. I'm going to ask you to be positive for once, and inform myself and my fellow Nationalists of the benefits to the Scottish nation in entirety of remaining in the Union.

[Granny Danger]

Latest polls showing people now think they will be economically better off in an Independent Scotland.  That is a game changer.

[Malky3]

1 hour ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

I voted Yes and I'm no Nationalist extremist I can assure you. I note however that like every Unionist I've ever spoken to, your default position is one of self-interest with apparently no regard for wider society - that is your choice and entitlement but please desist from disrespecting those of us who believe in a better Scotland, one which will be free of the suffocating, archaic and downright dangerous orthodoxies of post-Empire Britain.

But here's a thing. I'm going to ask you to be positive for once, and inform myself and my fellow Nationalists of the benefits to the Scottish nation in entirety of remaining in the Union.

I have been positive - relentlessly so. Scotland benefits massively from our position within the United Kingdom. I've proven - using the Scottish Governments own figures - that Scotland is able to spend £12.6Bn more than it raises in tax revenues through the Barnett Formula. I've stated repeatedly that Scotland is a great country, a great place to live, a wealthy country, and a country that enjoys freedoms and democracy that isn't afforded to the majority of the world. I have expressed my comfort living in Scotland and I've stated that my family are pretty average. And I've stated that I wouldn't want mine, or any other families like mines, opportunities to be diminished as they undoubtedly would be in an Independent Scotland. The majority of Scots clearly agree with me and we are asking the Nationalists to make a fully costed  positive case for Independence. 

The response to that has been to tell me to f**k off elsewhere. To accuse me of not being Scottish. To accuse me of being selfish. And to tell me that Westminster is shit, the UK is shit, and one Nationalist even claimed bizarrely that Scotland was a Third World country within the UK union! I've not seen one iota of positivity from the Nationalist movement regarding an Independent Scotland. No proof of extra income, or revenue. No proof that anyone other than politicians will be any wealthier. No evidence of how they would tackle homelessness, or poverty, and the only evidence I've seen of tackling equality would be to make us all equally poor through ridiculously high levels of taxation. that will drive business and enterprise elsewhere. 

[welshbairn]

[AUFC90]

The only political uncertainty is remaining in a political union where the country you live in gets whatever another country votes for, forever. Brexit is a great example and there will be many more over the coming decades.

There wasn't much certainty the last time in voting no and there's certainly none now. The union is gubbed and all the Tories in the world can't say no to a referendum forever.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

I have been positive - relentlessly so. Scotland benefits massively from our position within the United Kingdom. I've proven - using the Scottish Governments own figures - that Scotland is able to spend £12.6Bn more than it raises in tax revenues through the Barnett Formula. I've stated repeatedly that Scotland is a great country, a great place to live, a wealthy country, and a country that enjoys freedoms and democracy that isn't afforded to the majority of the world. I have expressed my comfort living in Scotland and I've stated that my family are pretty average. And I've stated that I wouldn't want mine, or any other families like mines, opportunities to be diminished as they undoubtedly would be in an Independent Scotland. The majority of Scots clearly agree with me and we are asking the Nationalists to make a fully costed  positive case for Independence. 
The response to that has been to tell me to f**k off elsewhere. To accuse me of not being Scottish. To accuse me of being selfish. And to tell me that Westminster is shit, the UK is shit, and one Nationalist even claimed bizarrely that Scotland was a Third World country within the UK union! I've not seen one iota of positivity from the Nationalist movement regarding an Independent Scotland. No proof of extra income, or revenue. No proof that anyone other than politicians will be any wealthier. No evidence of how they would tackle homelessness, or poverty, and the only evidence I've seen of tackling equality would be to make us all equally poor through ridiculously high levels of taxation. that will drive business and enterprise elsewhere. 

I was expecting this - the usual tramlined Unionist argument where everything is seen thro an economic prism. Putting aside what sort of society we should wish Scotland to be - democratic, meritocratic, fundamentally pacifist, and dare I say morally and ethically sound - the people who continue to cling to the UK are to a man and woman largely incapable of visualising a different nation in aspects such as equitable land ownership, the growing housing crisis and associated homelessness problem, wealth distribution and the principle of commonweal, never mind the overarching iniquity of Scotland's electoral deficit at every GE.

These folk though, and I assume yourself too, are doing just fine under the status quo, and assuage any serious consideration of Scottish independence by parroting tripe about the Barnett Formula and the discredited GERS canard. Mysteriously tho, there is never a mention of the McCrone Report, for example, or indeed anything to challenge the notion that Scotland is anything other than a scenic economic basket case on UK life support.

On one thing we are agreed, abuse is never the answer. And that's why I'm delighted that the dial is steadily shifting towards Independence as it is evidence that the very concept can no longer be trashed with condescension and contemptuous ease, as people here and across the UK witness the disintegration of this failing sceptred isle.

[BILmac1967]

1 hour ago, AUFC90 said:

The only political uncertainty is remaining in a political union where the country you live in gets whatever another country votes for, forever. Brexit is a great example and there will be many more over the coming decades.

There wasn't much certainty the last time in voting no and there's certainly none now. The union is gubbed and all the Tories in the world can't say no to a referendum forever.

You state "the country you live in gets what another country votes for" -we're in the UK so we got what we voted for.

A majority is a majority by whichever percentage, that's as certain as you can get. If the boot was on the other foot, you wouldn't stand for constant re-runs until we got our way.

We were supposed to get a referendum once in a generation. That's 30-35 years, not every four years until you get your way.

[jakedee]

The UK is not a Country.

You state "the country you live in gets what another country votes for" -we're in the UK so we got what we voted for.
A majority is a majority by whichever percentage, that's as certain as you can get. If the boot was on the other foot, you wouldn't stand for constant re-runs until we got our way.
We were supposed to get a referendum once in a generation. That's 30-35 years, not every four years until you get your way.

[lichtgilphead]

3 minutes ago, BILmac1967 said:

If the boot was on the other foot, you wouldn't stand for constant re-runs until we got our way.

If a party won a majority of seats in a Holyrood election in an independentr Scotland on a manifesto pledge of "If we win this election, we will hold a referendum to rejoin the UK", I would fully expect such a referendum to be held.

That's democracy.

Obviously, it's highly unlikely. I'm not sure that any party in Ireland, the USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia or India has ever stood on such a ticket, but hey, there could always be a first

[BILmac1967]

6 minutes ago, jakedee said:

The UK is not a Country.

Well, a state we vote within, if we're being pedantic.

So now you raise the question of what a country is. A country is defined by it's borders. The previous borders Hadrian's or Antonine's, was really created by the romans. The whole concept of Scotland as a country was really defined by them, not even the English. Surely it was the borderers who wanted to move freely for the sake of trade, this modern Scotland thing is just restrictive. Any historical  border wasn't created by those who live here.

I honestly feel that Scotland as a country is a load of tartan biscuit-tin romantic tosh.