Bishop Briggs Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 2 hours ago, dorlomin said: ComRes has us with a Tory majority of 6 on uniform swing. Things may be tight enough that the toss ups in Norn Irn may come into play. DUP do not want the current Boris deal and most Labour leave rebels are out the equation. Of some interest, women show the greatest Labour lean and the greatest "dont know". Couple of more polls to come apparently. Look at the UK Polling Report website - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk. Savanta ComRes have been getting the lower than average Tory vote/lead during the campaign. Opinium and Survation have best recent records. More polls have come in and the average is 44% Conservative, 33% Labour, 12% Lib Dem, 3% Brexit. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SweeperDee Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Where the f**k is this survation poll?! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 Look at the UK Polling Report website - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk. Savanta ComRes have been getting the lower than average Tory vote/lead during the campaign. Opinium and Survation have best recent records. More polls have come in and the average is 44% Conservative, 33% Labour, 12% Lib Dem, 3% Brexit.Feck. That's depressing reading 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G-MAN Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 The whole country hitting refresh on the survation website.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G-MAN Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Gap of 11 points in Survation poll 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Happy fucking Election Day. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SweeperDee Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 SNP polling 4%. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G-MAN Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 **Survation Final Call**GB VOTING INTENTIONCON 44.5LAB 33.7LD 9.3GRE 3.2SNP 4.0PC 1.4AP 0.9 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said: 9 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said: Look at the UK Polling Report website - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk. Savanta ComRes have been getting the lower than average Tory vote/lead during the campaign. Opinium and Survation have best recent records. More polls have come in and the average is 44% Conservative, 33% Labour, 12% Lib Dem, 3% Brexit. Feck. That's depressing reading Remember that the margin of error is 3%. The pollsters significantly under-estimated the Labour vote in 2017 in the last week - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#2017. Just wait for the BBC exit poll tomorrow. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 (edited) 7 minutes ago, G-MAN said: **Survation Final Call** GB VOTING INTENTION CON 44.5 LAB 33.7 LD 9.3 GRE 3.2 SNP 4.0 PC 1.4 AP 0.9 3.1% in 2017 - suggests several SNP gains, especially from the Tories. ETA - and bad news for Swinson! Edited December 12, 2019 by Bishop Briggs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Well all we can hope for is a systematic error. A failure to account for younger turnout or a late breaking demographic not picked up by the polling. Uncertainty breaks both ways, and all pollsters have said this is a difficult election to call for a lot of reasons. On about the 31st of October a lot of people seemed a lot more confident, forgetting what an appalling campaign May ran. The Tories know their business, they know how to sell a message and target demographics. Waving around some things you like and assuming everyone else will as well is not really got a good track record in terms of modern elections. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SweeperDee Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Plaid on 1.4, which is about 30% in Wales. Is that really likely? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G-MAN Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 3.1% in 2017 - suggests several SNP gains, especially from the Tories. ETA - and bad news for Swinson!HairSwinsonSweeneyAnd at a push JackWould be phenomenal. Fluffy Snackbeard would be pushing it though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, SweeperDee said: Plaid on 1.4, which is about 30% in Wales. Is that really likely? No. 10% in 2017. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alta-pete Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 You folks all seen the weather forecast for tomorrow? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SweeperDee Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 No. 10% in 2017.So would be a tripling? Why would their ground work lead to an outlier like that? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnnydun Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, alta-pete said: You folks all seen the weather forecast for tomorrow? Yeah there is weather. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just now, SweeperDee said: So would be a tripling? Why would their ground work lead to an outlier like that? Small sample size, bigger margin of error. Even so, it is a ridiculous outlier. The question is "at whose expense"? Probably Labour. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alta-pete Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Yeah there is weather.Have a think about how that might affect the behaviour of various demographics. Once you’ve done that, do you draw any conclusions? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SweeperDee Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Small sample size, bigger margin of error. Even so, it is a ridiculous outlier. The question is "at whose expense"? Probably Labour.Labour have neglected Wales for years tbf. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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