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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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4 minutes ago, Kuro said:

Sigh.  Oil represents typically 1.5% of UK GDP.  The 2008 financial crash saw a temporary drop of GDP of around 2% for 3-5 years.  It was the most devastating economic event in decades and ushered in a decade or more of austerity and arguably Brexit. 

Losing oil would represent a drop of 1.5% for 50-100 years.  I can tell you're not stupid.  Therefore I have no idea why you pursue this utterly moronic line of shite. 

The UK has virtually nothing of any value, its all services, oil is one of the very few tangible commodities it has and by far the largest.  Oil is finite and used for thousands of things not just cars, basic economics dictates the price will only rise long term.

You're just lying, and you know it too.  

Oil won't be a commodity in 25 years time max, it will be left underground as it should be now. Great for Scotland for a decade or 2 but they won't be crying in London over this. Brexit will cost them far more and they don't give a f**k about that.

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3 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Oil won't be a commodity in 25 years time max, it will be left underground as it should be now. Great for Scotland for a decade or 2 but they won't be crying in London over this. Brexit will cost them far more and they don't give a f**k about that.

Bullshit.  You're wilfully ignorant.  Brexit makes oil even more important to the UK economy.  Its literally the number one most valuable thing the UK has, and the UK's top four commodities exports are unrefined oil, refined oil, unrefined gas, refined gas.  We leave we take almost all of it.  A fucking child could understand the importance of that.

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Oil: Scotland might end up with lion's share but reserves are shrinking

A major tussle over future ownership of oil from the North Sea is likely if the 'yes' vote is carried in Scotland.

O'Neill reckons a large share of the oil could end up being transferred to Scotland. If this is done on a geographical basis, it will amount to almost 5 per cent of Scottish GDP and represent 15 per cent of an independent state’s total tax receipts, he says.

'Given its economic significance, oil is the crucial determinant of fiscal sustainability for an independent Scotland. 

'Ultimately, the incremental oil tax revenues, albeit highly volatile, would boost GDP and help Scotland sustain the higher spending on public spending it currently enjoys – 12 per cent higher per capita than for the rest of the UK. 

'But the fiscal windfall from oil production could eventually prove underwhelming, if forecasts of shrinking oil and gas reserves in the next half century come true.'

Zangana says: 'There is uncertainty about how North Sea oil and gas revenues would be allocated in the event of independence. 

'If it is shared on a geographic basis, Scotland would receive 90 per cent of future North Sea oil and gas revenues, which would help it achieve a trade surplus with the rest of the world of about 4.8 per cent of GDP, although this is likely to be eroded by payments to overseas owners of Scottish assets. 

'On the other hand, the trade balance of the rest of the UK would deteriorate, potentially hurting confidence in sterling.'  

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Since this article they've discovered approx 100 years worth of extra oil btw, and the massive Clair Ridge field has come online.

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A quote from the Jim Rogers on that Bloomberg clip.

Quote

In May 2012 he remarked during an interview with Forbes magazine that "there's going to be a huge shift in American society, American culture, in the places where one is going to get rich. The stock brokers are going to be driving taxis. The smart ones will learn to drive tractors so they can work for the smart farmers. The farmers are going to be driving Lamborghinis. I'm telling you. You should start Forbes Farming."

 

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1 minute ago, This time Perthshirebell said:

This 1.5% figure presumably doesn't take account of the fuel duties and VAT paid at the pump?    Then you have hundreds of thousands of top bracket tax earners paying Income Tax, and expensive council taxes for their detached dwellings.   

 

Its an industry that employs FOUR HUNDRED THOUSAND PEOPLE.  Its the biggest industry in the UK, number one.  Anyone who claims it isn't of absolutely massive importance can only be a liar or an idiot.

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3 minutes ago, Kuro said:

Its an industry that employs FOUR HUNDRED THOUSAND PEOPLE.  Its the biggest industry in the UK, number one.  Anyone who claims it isn't of absolutely massive importance can only be a liar or an idiot.

If you and Kincardine are right and most of them work in England, they'd still be paying their taxes in rUK.

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Just now, welshbairn said:

If you and Kincardine are right and most of them work in England, they'd still be paying their taxes in rUK.

Did you hear me mention their taxes?  Future employment in the industry could be tilted towards people resident in Scotland wherever possible, however.  As could all decommissioning work which is another massive industry currently being directed to the NE of England by the UK govt.

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