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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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Just now, Wee Willie said:

...and me tae :lol:

You tae!

There's obvs exceptions to the rule.  My in laws, in their late 60s/ early 70s are fervent supporters of an independent Scotland.

And I have a 21 year old nephew who is a Royal family loving, SNP hating No voter.  Little weirdo that he is.

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43 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Young people will be too busy sexting each other and taking legal highs to vote whereas the elderly have nothing to do aside from watch Homes Under the Hammer Bargain Hunt and vote in elections.

:thumsup2

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Kenny Farquharson has tweeted that Scottish Labour are saying that they are ahead or within a percentage point of the SNP in the following Westminister seats, based on ward voting in the council elections.  I have added the sitting SNP MPs majority for reference.
East Lothian Labour: 33.08% SNP: 27.92% Difference: +5.16 (SNP maj - 6,803)
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Labour: 42.95% SNP: 41.3% Difference: +1.65 (SNP Maj - 11,501)
Lanark and Hamilton East Labour: 32.12% SNP: 31.21% Difference: +0.91 (SNP Maj - 10,100)
Midlothian Labour: 30.2% SNP: 30.67% Difference: -0.46 (SNP maj - 9,859)
Airdrie and Shotts Labour: 39.05% SNP: 39.55 Difference: -0.50 (SNP maj - 8,779)
Glasgow South West Labour: 38.38% SNP: 39.12% Difference: -0.74 (SNP maj - 9,950)
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Labour: 33.58% SNP: 34.56% Difference: -0.97(SNP maj - 9,974)
I've seen a few people make comparisons between the SNP vote in the local elections last week, the 2015 General Election and the 2016 Scottish Parliament elections - I think these comparisons are disingenuous.  These figures can be illuminating - actual votes in real elections are always going to be a good guide - but local elections are different to national elections.  Something like 10% of the vote nationally went to independent candidates, that obviously isn't going to be replicated.  If you compare the 2011 Scottish Parliament election to the 2012 local elections you see a drop off for the SNP but one that wasn't sustained into national elections in 2015 or 2016.
On the other hand, the turnout for these local elections was pretty solid, especially considering they were stand alone elections not on the same day as a national election.  That could suggest that these results will be more closely replicated on the day.
Overall, I'd be very surprised if the Labour Party win any of these seats on June 8th.

It wouldn't surprise me in East Lothian to be honest. The SNP are hardly popular and they're suffering from issues like over-development. I think the SNP vote will go down, however whether that vote goes to Labour or the Tories, who knows. I know people who voted Yes and SNP at the last election thinking again because of concerns about immigration and because they backed Brexit.
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It wouldn't surprise me in East Lothian to be honest. The SNP are hardly popular and they're suffering from issues like over-development. I think the SNP vote will go down, however whether that vote goes to Labour or the Tories, who knows. I know people who voted Yes and SNP at the last election thinking again because of concerns about immigration and because they backed Brexit.



Good to see one of the more intelligent unionist posters back
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7 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Kenny Farquharson has tweeted that Scottish Labour are saying that they are ahead or within a percentage point of the SNP in the following Westminister seats, based on ward voting in the council elections.  I have added the sitting SNP MPs majority for reference.

East Lothian Labour: 33.08% SNP: 27.92% Difference: +5.16 (SNP maj - 6,803)

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Labour: 42.95% SNP: 41.3% Difference: +1.65 (SNP Maj - 11,501)

Lanark and Hamilton East Labour: 32.12% SNP: 31.21% Difference: +0.91 (SNP Maj - 10,100)

Midlothian Labour: 30.2% SNP: 30.67% Difference: -0.46 (SNP maj - 9,859)

Airdrie and Shotts Labour: 39.05% SNP: 39.55 Difference: -0.50 (SNP maj - 8,779)

Glasgow South West Labour: 38.38% SNP: 39.12% Difference: -0.74 (SNP maj - 9,950)

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Labour: 33.58% SNP: 34.56% Difference: -0.97(SNP maj - 9,974)

I've seen a few people make comparisons between the SNP vote in the local elections last week, the 2015 General Election and the 2016 Scottish Parliament elections - I think these comparisons are disingenuous.  These figures can be illuminating - actual votes in real elections are always going to be a good guide - but local elections are different to national elections.  Something like 10% of the vote nationally went to independent candidates, that obviously isn't going to be replicated.  If you compare the 2011 Scottish Parliament election to the 2012 local elections you see a drop off for the SNP but one that wasn't sustained into national elections in 2015 or 2016.

On the other hand, the turnout for these local elections was pretty solid, especially considering they were stand alone elections not on the same day as a national election.  That could suggest that these results will be more closely replicated on the day.

Overall, I'd be very surprised if the Labour Party win any of these seats on June 8th.

Yeah, STV is a different system altogether. SLAB are desperate.

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Well, this contrast is fairly stark...

IMG_1494331734.384627.thumb.jpg.7c5614ca404cbe3d4d70f0f63d8bd8c0.jpg

IMG_1494331741.441655.thumb.jpg.7633afb2aea5f65aa1997813d1bb137d.jpg



The over 65s have lost it completely. Along with Labour, the Tories are NOT guaranteeing a triple lock on pensions.

It's not just the over 65s either. Why vote Tory? After all they've done. I reckon the Tories could commit mass murder and still get voted in at WM.

What the fcuk is up with the British public?
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1 hour ago, Glen Sannox said:

All we need now is an intelligent separatist poster. The law of averages would indicate that there must be one out there.

 

I've got a PhD.....

thQTNLU2L8.jpg.6e08115e52e186d71dae4c9156d4f7ee.jpg

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