Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[mizfit]

1 minute ago, Kejan said:

Good point about the combined vote.

Just had a look at Wiki - turn out was 75% So even with that, they'll have to be a huge swing from SNP to Tory too.

Wishart has been a decent MP, Much better than Cunningham and Fairbairn (c**t) before him, but he picks too many online fights these days, and seems to be a bit arrogant unfortunately. 

[ArmadaleKillie]

7 minutes ago, harry94 said:

Probably just a bit of expectation management but it's worth looking out for the UK wide polls over the next few days.

 

 

Wouldn't surprise me either, just like the Independence Referendum and the last Westminster election. Poll comes out a week before the vote showing the "underdog" might actually win and suddenly it ensures the opposition vote comes out and ppl tempted to vote for something because they like it but know they won't win suddenly decide to stick with the status quo.

[Kejan]

What are people thinking with 10 days to go on how it'll go?

Labour - won't do anywhere near as bad as some were predicting in England/Wales. Think there vote will hold up, and plenty of good value bets out there if you fancy a punt on that happening e.g Birmingham,  northern English towns e.g Burnley, Wales, lots of even 13/8 bets on Lab holding their seats. 

Tories - modest gains in Scotland, leafier ex Lib/Lab towns ; but nowhere near the 150 plus majority some were on about. 

Libs - hopefully wipe out. There's something I hate about the Libs, maybe their dishonest ,sleaziness. Some polls have them even losing seats!  Imagine Farron and Clegg out! 

SNP - not sure. Some huge majorities, but if there is SNP apathy and the polls are showing they are down about 7-10% of their 2015 vote - which I suppose was to happen e.g some 'Tartan' Tories who may have voted SNP to keep Lab out at Westminister levels in Perth, Angus, etc returning to their natural pigsty; some SNP voters in 2015 may even tempted to vote for Labour under Corbyn. If the SNP get the vote out, they'll surely return at least 45 seats or so. Anything over 45 is a good night I reckon. At the same time, there are some constituencies where that LoonYoonball wheel of misfortune may come in to play and help some of the loonballs pic the wrong unionist candidate e.g East Renfrewshire, Dunbartonshire East, Edinburgh South, North East Fife - could all be tight three-way run ins and some Tories who might have voted Lib in Fife etc tempted to try and vote for their lot which keeps the SNP in. I hope so.

Also, will the polls influence potential SNP/Labour floating voters? If the Tories build up a big lead again next week, will many then decide to stick with the SNP rather than risk voting Labour and the Tories win the constituency? 

I dinnae hae a scoob really, but quite looking forward to election night and Pray GOD for a lot of Ruth, Murdo bumping their gums about increasing their vote in Scotland by 5% but ultimately failing to win any real key seats. 

One thing though. I do love how most polling sites have detailed description of the constituency, demographics, voting patterns etc for most of Britain yet when it comes to Northern Ireland, it'll say something like NI - 18 seats (quite amazing how ´loyal' some of the bumpkins are over there when folk from the 'mainland' a)have no idea they are even part of Britain and b)don't care.

 

[Kejan]

Lib Dems ahead in their polling in NE Fife - 35% Lib 30% SNP 20% Tory

[paolo2143]

I like Corbyn and some of his policies and the smears by right wing Tory press & party just show what a despicable bunch they are and why they deserve to be treated with contempt.

 

However at this election i will be voting SNP as i do think they have done a lot of good for Scotland and the fact is that before SNP came to prominence in last 10 years & possibility of independence we here in Scotland were treated as a total irrelevance to Westminster and our voices not listened to as well as being dumping ground for various policies such as poll tax.

 

Nowadays we are treated with much more respect and the days of westminster casually ignoring us are over thanks to SNP's progress, if we see a large drop in their support & surge for Tories it will e back to bad old day's of 80's & 90's i fear.

[Kyle]

4 hours ago, Kejan said:

Lib Dems ahead in their polling in NE Fife - 35% Lib 30% SNP 20% Tory

Just like they were ahead in Gordon in 2015. The Tories will poll more than 20%, the snp will poll more than 30% IMO. 

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

2 hours ago, paolo2143 said:

I like Corbyn and some of his policies and the smears by right wing Tory press & party just show what a despicable bunch they are and why they deserve to be treated with contempt.

 

However at this election i will be voting SNP as i do think they have done a lot of good for Scotland and the fact is that before SNP came to prominence in last 10 years & possibility of independence we here in Scotland were treated as a total irrelevance to Westminster and our voices not listened to as well as being dumping ground for various policies such as poll tax.

 

Nowadays we are treated with much more respect and the days of westminster casually ignoring us are over thanks to SNP's progress, if we see a large drop in their support & surge for Tories it will e back to bad old day's of 80's & 90's i fear.

I'd have Corbyn over May, but don't forget he's just as a big a BritNat as she is and is certainly no friend of Scotland. 

[Wee Willie]

11 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

I'd have Corbyn over May, but don't forget he's just as a big a BritNat as she is and is certainly no friend of Scotland. 

Well said, that's the point I've been trying to put across

[Sunrise]

The Ashcroft model is a bit weird though, it has the SNP as likely to win Orkney & Shetland. If they couldn't win it in 2015, I'd suggest it's even more difficult now. Though I'd probably agree that Perth is basically a 50/50 atm. He also says the Lib Dems would come third in North East Fife.

Orkney and Shetland - the SNP's Miriam Brett is a very guid candidate, young, Shetland born and bred, a solid left-winger and has done very well so far, but I really think the SNP lost the chance tae win the isles in 2015 which Danus Skene, a poor candidate (who has sadly since died) who - according tae the Herald - got just 4% of the vote in one of the Shetland count areas in last years Holyrood election...

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Lib Dems ahead in their polling in NE Fife - 35% Lib 30% SNP 20% Tory

That is pure fucking fantasy.

[ayrmad]

1 minute ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

That is pure fucking fantasy.

There internal polls are always like that, they must just poll family and friends.

[Kyle]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (-)

LAB: 37% (+3)

LDEM: 8% (-)

UKIP: 4% (-)

 

(via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

[John Lambies Doos]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (-)

LAB: 37% (+3)

LDEM: 8% (-)

UKIP: 4% (-)

 

(via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

Oof

[John Lambies Doos]

Would be great if we could get a Scottish only poll by one of the approved pollsters. I know it's pretty insignificant but is there a Scottish subsample on that survation poll?

[Sunrise]

SNP down to 2% across UK in tonight's Survation poll - though apparently the UK Greens are down to 1%. SNP are usually 4/5% nationally - worrying from the outset.

[Kyle]

Looks like only 75 Scots were actually polled. The figures look meaningless to me tbh.

[DrewDon]

Aye, I wouldn't be reading too much into that poll. One possibility that does slightly concern me is a relatively small movement of SNP 2015 voters to Labour. This should be exceeded by a transfer of Labour 2015 - and maybe even SNP 2015 - voters to the Tories, which combined with the aforementioned could allow the Tories to just pip the SNP in a few more Scottish seats than I would have anticipated in April or early May. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

SNP down to 2% across UK in tonight's Survation poll - though apparently the UK Greens are down to 1%. SNP are usually 4/5% nationally - worrying from the outset.

Meaningless subset - should not even report this figure - almost as if they wanted to emphasise it.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Leaders' Non-Debate: How did they do? Why the hell are the interviewing the Brexit Secretary - it's pretty obvious what his response is.

These cvnts in the MSM are absolutely useless at best or just downright biased.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

It looks like they've replaced "strong and stable" with "firm and fair" - it's vacuous soundbite politics that would make even Blair blush.