Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[Granny Danger]

Struggling to find any recent predictions for likely seats in Scotland in a GE.  Can find percentages but no interpretation into seats.

I would hope 45-50 SNP at a snap election.

 

 

[Detournement]

Where do you see the SNP making gains?

It will surely be impossible for them to hold their central belt seats which are under pressure and simultaneously win back rural areas? The 2015 result was a quirk of Indyref. I don't see the same party winning Glasgow East and Banff ever again.

[zidane's child]

Just now, Detournement said:

Where do you see the SNP making gains?

It will surely be impossible for them to hold their central belt seats which are under pressure and simultaneously win back rural areas? The 2015 result was a quirk of Indyref. I don't see the same party winning Glasgow East and Banff ever again.

I can see Labour making gains of another 5 or 6. Tories will lose a few as well.

[Colkitto]

3 hours ago, Detournement said:

Where do you see the SNP making gains?

It will surely be impossible for them to hold their central belt seats which are under pressure and simultaneously win back rural areas? The 2015 result was a quirk of Indyref. I don't see the same party winning Glasgow East and Banff ever again.

The SNP won Glasgow East 

[Detournement]

Just now, Colkitto said:

The SNP won Glasgow East 

And the Tories won Banff......

[Colkitto]

Just now, Detournement said:

And the Tories won Banff......

Are you saying that even though the SNP won Glasgow East in 2015 and again in 2017 that they will never win it again? 

[Detournement]

3 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

Are you saying that even though the SNP won Glasgow East in 2015 and again in 2017 that they will never win it again? 

I'm saying that was a black swan event due to Indyref and it won't happen again under normal conditions.

 

Edited September 27, 2018 by Detournement

[Colkitto]

1 minute ago, Detournement said:

I'm saying that was a black swan event due to Indyref and it won't happen again under normal conditions.

 

2017 was under "normal" conditions was it not? 2017 was a dreadful campaign for the SNP but they still managed to hold Glasgow East.

The last YouGov poll in July had the SNP on 43% and Labour on 23% in Scotland for Westminster election. Yet somehow you believe the SNP won't hold Glasgow East despite winning there in the last 2 elections and being ahead of Labour by 20% in the polls. 

You need to explain that one I'm afraid...

[Detournement]

I am saying that the SNP won't be able to run an election campaign which appeals to both voters in Glasgow East and Banff.  They will have to make a choice between fighting for their central belt seats or winning back the North East.

I also expect Labour to do better in the central belt and win more seats. Labour now has a clear program that is going to be attractive to a lot of people in Glasgow, Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire etc and will have a strong narrative at the next election about getting the Tories out and building a new economy. In 2017 the SNP struggled to make their case for their purpose at Westminster and it's going to be hard for them to repeat the 2015 message that they want to go into a coalition with Labour now given the animosity and direct competition between the parties.

 

 

[NotThePars]

2017 was under "normal" conditions was it not? 2017 was a dreadful campaign for the SNP but they still managed to hold Glasgow East.
The last YouGov poll in July had the SNP on 43% and Labour on 23% in Scotland for Westminster election. Yet somehow you believe the SNP won't hold Glasgow East despite winning there in the last 2 elections and being ahead of Labour by 20% in the polls. 
You need to explain that one I'm afraid...

I think his point is that they can’t hold both Banff and Glasgow East at the same time outside of unusual circumstances like the post-indyref landscape.

[renton]

15 minutes ago, Detournement said:

I am saying that the SNP won't be able to run an election campaign which appeals to both voters in Glasgow East and Banff.  They will have to make a choice between fighting for their central belt seats or winning back the North East.

I also expect Labour to do better in the central belt and win more seats. Labour now has a clear program that is going to be attractive to a lot of people in Glasgow, Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire etc and will have a strong narrative at the next election about getting the Tories out and building a new economy. In 2017 the SNP struggled to make their case for their purpose at Westminster and it's going to be hard for them to repeat the 2015 message that they want to go into a coalition with Labour now given the animosity and direct competition between the parties.

 

 

What hypothetical situation are we talking about here? A GE before Brexit, a year afterwards? A full term one at 2022?

[Detournement]

It looks like Parliament will go full term or close to it now. May will see Brexit through then step aside and the Tories will try to regroup under a new leader and no doubt announce austerity is over.

So if it's 2022 then a massive factor for the SNP will be the Holyrood elections in 2021. If there is no majority for independence in Holyrood then the Indy movement is on ice for five years which will hurt their GE campaign.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

31 minutes ago, Detournement said:

I am saying that the SNP won't be able to run an election campaign which appeals to both voters in Glasgow East and Banff.  They will have to make a choice between fighting for their central belt seats or winning back the North East.

I also expect Labour to do better in the central belt and win more seats. Labour now has a clear program that is going to be attractive to a lot of people in Glasgow, Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire etc and will have a strong narrative at the next election about getting the Tories out and building a new economy. In 2017 the SNP struggled to make their case for their purpose at Westminster and it's going to be hard for them to repeat the 2015 message that they want to go into a coalition with Labour now given the animosity and direct competition between the parties.

 

 

Really ?  Here's one former Labour voter who will be sticking with the SNP.  Lying, duplicitous London-based parties who promise  one thing and deliver another have had it from me.  And whilst we're at it, what exactly has Labour's purpose been at Westminster for the last how many years ?  I must ask my former MP, Lord McFall of Alcuith the next time I see him. 

Buit wait - things will be diferent under the radical Jezza 'I'm Renewing Trident' Corbyn.  Aye, right !

Edited September 27, 2018 by O'Kelly Isley III

[renton]

2 minutes ago, Detournement said:

It looks like Parliament will go full term or close to it now. May will see Brexit through then step aside and the Tories will try to regroup under a new leader and no doubt announce austerity is over.

So if it's 2022 then a massive factor for the SNP will be the Holyrood elections in 2021. If there is no majority for independence in Holyrood then the Indy movement is on ice for five years which will hurt their GE campaign.

What type of Brexit? Chequers or No deal?

[Colkitto]

38 minutes ago, Detournement said:

I am saying that the SNP won't be able to run an election campaign which appeals to both voters in Glasgow East and Banff.  They will have to make a choice between fighting for their central belt seats or winning back the North East.

I also expect Labour to do better in the central belt and win more seats. Labour now has a clear program that is going to be attractive to a lot of people in Glasgow, Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire etc and will have a strong narrative at the next election about getting the Tories out and building a new economy. In 2017 the SNP struggled to make their case for their purpose at Westminster and it's going to be hard for them to repeat the 2015 message that they want to go into a coalition with Labour now given the animosity and direct competition between the parties.

 

 

Labour share of the vote between 2015 and 2017 went up by less than 3% in Scotland. In 2017 Corbyn was Labour leader and the SNP ran a dreadful campaign - which they won't repeat.

Labour have slipped back to 2015 levels of support going by the last Scotland opinion poll. If it's going to be hard for anyone in the next election in Scotland it's going to be Labour.  

They most certainly are not on course to make gains, if anything, the more likely outcome is they will make drastic loses  - maybe holding 1 seat? 

[Colkitto]

26 minutes ago, Detournement said:

So if it's 2022 then a massive factor for the SNP will be the Holyrood elections in 2021. If there is no majority for independence in Holyrood then the Indy movement is on ice for five years which will hurt their GE campaign.

And this is why Nicola Sturgeon MUST call indyref2 before such a possible scenario can happen 

[Detournement]

It's obviously just opinions but I see things differently. Last year the over riding narrative was how much the Tories would win by and that Corbyn was unelectable. That won't be the case next time and Labour will be able to conduct a better campaign with more focus on Scottish marginals. The BBC won't be able to promote the nonsense about the Tories challenging in Glasgow/Lanarkshire either this time which cost Labour a lot of votes and definitely half a dozen seats.

What kind of campaign do you expect the SNP to run?

Edited September 27, 2018 by Detournement

[Detournement]

2 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

And this is why Nicola Sturgeon MUST call indyref2 before such a possible scenario can happen 

I agree with you on that.

[Detournement]

24 minutes ago, renton said:

What type of Brexit? Chequers or No deal?

I think she will get something close to Chequers. The French and German Tories won't let her hang.

[Colkitto]

31 minutes ago, Detournement said:

 

What kind of campaign do you expect the SNP to run?

It depends on how things develop. Will the WM election happen before 2022? Will it happen before the HR election in 2021? Will indyref2 have been called? 

I just don't believe the support for Labour exists in Scotland anymore, I really don't. I don't see how they win back Labour voters who believe in Scottish independence - regardless of when indyref2 happens.

I know there was a flirtation with Labour by pro-indy voters like Cat Boyd. But for me, Labour will never take back those pro-indy voters in large numbers.

Scotland is divided into Yes/No constitutional lines. Labour, Tory and the Lib-dems are fighting it out for the No voters. The SNP need to get those Yes voters back out to vote.

If the SNP can get back to 45/46% then places like Banff will fall and so will the central belt. Last poll had them on 42%