The DUP

[Granny Danger]

15 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Voting for tribal and religious reasons is destructive and should be in the past. Only 30% back a united Ireland at the moment, 25% when reminded it would mean paying for heath care. Other issues are much higher in most voter's list of priorities.

Yeah like only 25%-30% of people supported Independence before the Referendum.  Things move on.

[welshbairn]

8 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Yeah like only 25%-30% of people supported Independence before the Referendum.  Things move on.

I think it's a big mistake comparing Scotland to Northern Ireland, NI is more akin to Lebanon. Apart from some particularly thick supporters of a certain football club, the issue of Scottish independence isn't tribal.

[Granny Danger]

Ireland was a country that was split in two because it suited the British (English) establishment at the time.  It’s not too late to right that wrong just as it’s not too late for Scotland to regain its Independence.

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Ireland was a country that was split in two because it suited the British (English) establishment at the time.  It’s not too late to right that wrong just as it’s not too late for Scotland to regain its Independence.

You might be right but I have my doubts. I suspect it was because it was the only way they could stop the Irish shouting at them, from the North as much as the South. I know the North could have got Donegal and a couple of other counties but they said no because it would mean they couldn't guarantee a perpetual majority, until now anyway. The Protestants left on the Eire side of the border felt hugely betrayed.

[Jacksgranda]

10 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

You might be right but I have my doubts. I suspect it was because it was the only way they could stop the Irish shouting at them, from the North as much as the South. I know the North could have got Donegal and a couple of other counties but they said no because it would mean they couldn't guarantee a perpetual majority, until now anyway. The Protestants left on the Eire side of the border felt hugely betrayed.

That was never feasible - for the reason you state - but actually it might have worked a lot better than imagined.

The Border Commission did recommend hiving off parts of east Donegal, and north Cavan & Monaghan to Northern Ireland and transferring part of Fermanagh and South Armagh to the Free State but it was quietly shelved.

Maybe Pakistan, India and Bangladesh should be reuinified, too, after all it's only 75 years since that was carved out of a unified state.

[williemillersmoustache]

Latest polling has Alliance neck and neck with the DUP

What would happen if the DUP was pushed to third. Other than me chuckling for quite some time. And is this likely?

[williemillersmoustache]

21 minutes ago, williemillersmoustache said:

Latest polling has Alliance neck and neck with the DUP

What would happen if the DUP was pushed to third. Other than me chuckling for quite some time. And is this likely?

Ah, the DUP would still get to nominate the deputy and could still and are probably more likely to refuse power sharing. 

[Jacksgranda]

25 minutes ago, williemillersmoustache said:

Latest polling has Alliance neck and neck with the DUP

What would happen if the DUP was pushed to third. Other than me chuckling for quite some time. And is this likely?

Nothing changes really, still need cross community support for First & Deputy First ministers. Alliance is "Other".

No

Edited May 3, 2022 by Jacksgranda

[welshbairn]

10 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

Nothing changes really, still need cross community support for First & Deputy First ministers. Alliance is "Other".

No

I'm not sure how it works, but if the "other" non-sectarian parties are effectively side lined, folk are going to have to start voting UUP and SDLP to have any hope of effective government in NI. 

[Jacksgranda]

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

I'm not sure how it works, but if the "other" non-sectarian parties are effectively side lined, folk are going to have to start voting UUP and SDLP to have any hope of effective government in NI. 

They are not sidelined per se, they can still participate in the Executive (should they wish to do so - and if there is one), they just can't be First Or Deputy First Minister. As I understand it.

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, Jacksgranda said:

They are not sidelined per se, they can still participate in the Executive (should they wish to do so - and if there is one), they just can't be First Or Deputy First Minister. As I understand it.

It's close to the Lebanese system where the Presidency, PM and Speaker jobs go to Shia, Sunni and Christian, not necessarily in that order. Maybe the Druze get something to do too. It's bonkers but there's not much else you can do if everyone votes on tribal lines. There's hardly any point in holding elections.

[Jacksgranda]

10 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

It's close to the Lebanese system where the Presidency, PM and Speaker jobs go to Shia, Sunni and Christian, not necessarily in that order. Maybe the Druze get something to do too. It's bonkers but there's not much else you can do if everyone votes on tribal lines. There's hardly any point in holding elections.

Shows which tribe is more effective in brainwashing their adherents, I suppose, to give them first dibs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-61264105

"Are you running a negative campaign?"

"No."

Edited May 3, 2022 by Jacksgranda
Sleppnig and update

[Jacksgranda]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

It's close to the Lebanese system where the Presidency, PM and Speaker jobs go to Shia, Sunni and Christian, not necessarily in that order. Maybe the Druze get something to do too. It's bonkers but there's not much else you can do if everyone votes on tribal lines. There's hardly any point in holding elections.

It was thought that after the Belfast Agreement was verified and all most of the guns were decomissioned/hidden for a rainy day, that the two main parties would be the UUP and the SDLP, and that Sinn Fein, and more importantly, the DUP would wither on the vine, so the cross community support proposal seemed like a good idea at the time (like many things in NI), as the two biggest parties were less sectarian and more moderate than the two wee boys. Both the UUP and the SDLP have been completely outmanouvered and outsmarted by the rivals on their own side. The SDLP is showing signs of recovery, but if the UUP don't get rid of their "born to rule/big house/ascendancy" mindset and don't bounce back at this election I don't really see much future for them.

Edited May 3, 2022 by Jacksgranda
Sleppnig

[LongTimeLurker]

25 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

It's close to the Lebanese system where the Presidency, PM and Speaker jobs go to Shia, Sunni and Christian, not necessarily in that order. Maybe the Druze get something to do too. It's bonkers but there's not much else you can do if everyone votes on tribal lines. There's hardly any point in holding elections.

It's Maronite Christian, Sunni and Shia on that. Think they do have quite lively elections because the Maronites are split on whether to align with Sunni or Shia parties.

[Granny Danger]

So abortion services in NI exist only in theory due to the dinosaur Unionists.  Get them in the sea.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/04/abortion-services-in-northern-ireland-almost-nonexistent-despite-legalisation

[The Master]

On 03/05/2022 at 13:31, Jacksgranda said:

They are not sidelined per se, they can still participate in the Executive (should they wish to do so - and if there is one), they just can't be First Or Deputy First Minister. As I understand it.

An “other” party can nominate the First Minister if they get the most MLAs, but they can’t be Deputy First Minister. That always goes to the largest party in the largest community that hasn’t nominated the FM.

In other words:

1. SF 2. Alliance 3. DUP

means SF First Minister and DUP Deputy First Minister.

1. Alliance 2. SF 3. Anyone 

means Alliance First Minister and SF Deputy First Minister. 

[Clown Job]

59 minutes ago, The Master said:

An “other” party can nominate the First Minister if they get the most MLAs, but they can’t be Deputy First Minister. That always goes to the largest party in the largest community that hasn’t nominated the FM.

In other words:

1. SF 2. Alliance 3. DUP

means SF First Minister and DUP Deputy First Minister.

1. Alliance 2. SF 3. Anyone 

means Alliance First Minister and SF Deputy First Minister. 

If that’s the way it’s political system is set up then I don’t see things ever changing in NI 

[Jacksgranda]

8 hours ago, The Master said:

An “other” party can nominate the First Minister if they get the most MLAs, but they can’t be Deputy First Minister. That always goes to the largest party in the largest community that hasn’t nominated the FM.

In other words:

1. SF 2. Alliance 3. DUP

means SF First Minister and DUP Deputy First Minister.

1. Alliance 2. SF 3. Anyone 

means Alliance First Minister and SF Deputy First Minister. 

I didn't know that, but I can't see that ever happening, but you never know.

7 hours ago, Clown Job said:

If that’s the way it’s political system is set up then I don’t see things ever changing in NI 

Things have already changed.

FPTP didn't work. Mandatory coalition isn't working (very) well, particularly with the two biggest parties being who they are, maybe a voluntary coalition? That would require the so called moderates to get the largest number of MLAs between them, a big task.

Local councils seem to work fairly well with majority rules.

I sometimes toy with the idea of abolishing Stormont and transferring powers to the local councils.

Northern Ireland was a bit over heavy in political representation, imho, councils, Stormont, Westminster and the European Parliament. Granted NI's influence at the latter two was minimal, and now we have no EU representation.

However, getting rid of Stormont wouldn't go down well with some Unionists.

[sparky88]

On 03/05/2022 at 13:36, welshbairn said:

It's close to the Lebanese system where the Presidency, PM and Speaker jobs go to Shia, Sunni and Christian, not necessarily in that order. Maybe the Druze get something to do too. It's bonkers but there's not much else you can do if everyone votes on tribal lines. There's hardly any point in holding elections.

The system is worse if people start not voting on tribal lines. I suspect the main problem with the GFA might end up being not having enough provision for non-unionist or nationalist parties. 

Alliance, if they come second, should use the fact that they will be passed over for Deputy First Minister as a bargaining chip for other posts/changes to system of governance at Stormont. From a political nerd perspective, its the most interesting aspect of the vote today. 

[101]

What's the feeling like in your neck of the woods @Jacksgranda. Hoping a SF victory doesn't fuel any more Irish Sea Border style attacks.

Certainly a big day for the UK, suprised it's not getting more coverage if SF win and the DUP basically say "am no playing with you" then the UK government need to act swiftly to bring a resolution in before anything kicks off can't have an election result ignored because one party isn't too keen to play second fiddle.