Squad for Lithuania and Malta

[forameus]

38 minutes ago, DAVIDB69 said:

 

Technically we have 8 at the moment for second place purposes and if it was decided today we would be the worst second placer.

A draw with wales Ireland next month would ensure that two wins would ensure we are not the worst second placer I think

 

Well technically if it was decided today we wouldn't, because we're 4th.

The table is extremely hard to predict - weird sequences of results can push teams back into contention, particularly if they've not gotten all 6 points against the bottom seeded side.  It'll change right up until the last ball is kicked.  Easy to say, but we shouldn't be worrying about that table and all its permutations.  Win both of our games and we stand a very good chance, and if we still don't get in after that then we've done our best.  Drop any points against Slovakia and we're done, drop any points against Slovenia and we're hoping for snookers in our own group, let alone anywhere else.  

Two wins please.

EDIT: That Wales group might actually be the one to watch.  They play Ireland, like you say, so a draw would suit us.  Before that though they go to Tbilisi.  And we all know that's a pure laugh.  Groups D, E and H will be the ones we're watching I imagine.

FURTHER EDIT: Some of these groups are filled with absolute haddies.  Could've got Romania as top seeds in our group (who are currently 4th in their group) but nooooo, we had to get England along with Slovakia and Slovenia.  Strongly worded letter to UEFA about this pish.

[forameus]

8 hours ago, gtbahfm said:

 

I think that we do need a pacy right footed winger on the right simply because the supporting full back is left footed and happier cutting inside. This worked really well against Lithuania, but Forrest was utter gash last night.

Ritchie would work much better with a Hutton-type right back in the same way Robertson is combining well with Phillips down the left providing width while Phillips cuts onto his right foot.

Like most people, I'm pretty fed up of Forrest, so I'm hoping longer term Burke makes a big impact at WBA and forms a partnership with Phillips (not replacing him in the team).

Just as a side note, Scotland must be pretty unique in world football in that we have a left footed right back!

 

Yeah, all good points.  Could Phillips playing on the right be an option or would that lead to him cutting back far too much onto his left foot?  Then someone happier to let Robertson bomb on on the other side.  As long as it's not Snodgrass, he was fucking brutal at that against Slovenia.

[Meadow_Jock]

8 hours ago, 1320Lichtie said:

 

A 2nd place table with the results v bottom excluded was posted on Sky Sports twitter last night and Slovakia were the 3rd best. Sure the team in 9th had 8 points.

 

I think 20 (14) should do it.

 

Fortunately, some helpful nerd keeps updating this table on the 2018 Qualifying wikipedia page. As you can see, we really need to finish on 14 points. As others have said though, a single slip up from Bosnia or Wales would mean that 6 points guarantee us a playoff place.

[gtbahfm]

Yeah, all good points.  Could Phillips playing on the right be an option or would that lead to him cutting back far too much onto his left foot?  Then someone happier to let Robertson bomb on on the other side.  As long as it's not Snodgrass, he was fucking brutal at that against Slovenia.

Phillips is right footed so actually works well where he is right now (particularly against Lithuania where he was cutting inside and causing havoc while Robertson provided width and outswinging crosses.

The options for the same sort of set up on the right assuming Tierney is the full back are Forrest, Anya and Burke who are all pacy and right footed.

The advantage of that while playing with Tierney is the way he can drive infield and hit a reverse pass behind the opposition full back for the winger to run onto. He and Forrest did that loads against Lithuania (it was less successful against Malta because Forrest miss controlled every pass off his shins).

[forameus]

I know I just said it was hard to predict, but f**k it, I like this kind of thing.  Because like Meadow_Jock says, I'm a helpful nerd.  All of this is assuming we reach that magic 14 point mark with two wins.  12 would likely see us finish bottom, if we manage 2nd at all.

Group A - France, Sweden, Netherlands, Bulgaria.  Pretty unlikely that the latter two will make 2nd, looking like either France or Sweden.  France's draw with Luxembourg puts them in a dangerous spot, but I'd expect they'd have enough in the tank with matches against Bulgaria and Belarus to come.  Sweden have Luxembourg and then the Netherlands, so expecting at least 3 from that, but then the bottom spot in the group isn't decided yet.  Luxembourg and Belarus are level on 5 points - if the latter finishes bottom, Sweden can pick up 6 points from these two games, if it's the former, only 3.  We'd ideally need a heavy win for Sweden in Luxembourg, them to finish bottom, and then a draw between Sweden and Netherlands.  They'd be on 11 points then, and we'd finish above them.  If Belarus finish bottom, Sweden would move up to 14, and it would come down to goal difference.  We don't want that.

Group B - Switzerland and Portugal.  Group is irrelevant.  We can't catch either side no matter what happens.

Group C - Northern Ireland.  Germany are pretty much home and hosed, so it's just one team we can potentially catch.  Looking unlikely though - they've got Germany in their next game, but then an absolutely dreadful Norway side in the final match.  1 point from two games would likely be enough to see them ahead of us and 3 would definitely be enough.  If Norway manage to win somehow, as do Germany, we would finish ahead of them

Group D - Wales, Republic of Ireland, maybe Serbia.  One of the big ones to watch.  Ireland look like they've chucked it with their defeat against Serbia, letting Wales back in.  Good result for us though, as it bunches up the table quite nicely.  Serbia have Austria and Georgia left to play and 3 points there will see them top no matter what.  Think we can forget about them.  Wales have to go to Tbilisi (lol) and then have a huge match in Cardiff against Ireland, with them playing Moldova before.  I expect both sides will get 3 points in their other matches.  Then it comes down to that last game.  A win for Ireland and we'd finish ahead of them.  A draw and we'd finish ahead of Wales.  A Wales win would take it down to goal difference, which we wouldn't come out on top of I don't think.

Group E - Poland, Montenegro, Denmark.  Likely to be one of the latter 2 that gets 2nd, and 2 wins for either would see them above us.  4 points for either (they play each other) would take it down to goal difference

Group G - Italy.  Lol.  We're not catching them.  The only situation we could would be if they lose at home to Macedonia and then away in Albania.  One win from two games would see them above us, as could a point.

Group H - Bosnia, Greece, Cyprus.  Cyprus aren't totally out of it, and play Greece next.  A win for them would really help us, particularly while Bosnia play Belgium at the same time.  A win wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for us either though - if Greece win and Bosnia lose, Greece will likely qualify due to playing Gibraltar on final day.  However, those 3 points will drop off, and the most points they can manage is 13.  We'd finish ahead of them.

Group I - Croatia, Iceland, Turkey, Ukraine. Big fucking shrug here.  4 sides separated by 2 points, so really is anyone's game.  Ukraine and Iceland both have Kosovo to play, so should expect 3 points from that.  Iceland also play Turkey and Croatia play Ukraine.  Honestly, could be anyone finishing top and 2nd there.  Kosovo have been roundly pumped though, so whoever finishes 2nd, they'll drop 6 points from their total.  Worst case, Iceland and Croatia win both of their games, finish on 22 points, and out of our reach.  Best case, they all cut each others throats.

So what have we learned?  Short of something crazy happening, 4 points for us is likely to see us finish in either 3rd or 4th.  We have to beat Slovakia, but then a draw against Slovenia would mean we'd have to get a better scoreline against Slovakia than they manage against Malta.  They beat them 1-0, we have to beat them 2-0.  Etc etc.  I can't see that happening.  But if we do win both of our games, I'd be very confident of finishing amongst the 8.

[Meadow_Jock]

57 minutes ago, forameus said:

I know I just said it was hard to predict, but f**k it, I like this kind of thing.  Because like Meadow_Jock says, I'm a helpful nerd.  All of this is assuming we reach that magic 14 point mark with two wins.  12 would likely see us finish bottom, if we manage 2nd at all.

Some very decent analysis there, mate. 

The only thing I'd disagree about is Switzerland / Portugal being irrelevant. The thought of Cristiano Ronaldo running at Berra and Mulgrew is so awful it's funny, so I'm absolutely praying they manage to overhaul Switzerland and knock the Swiss down into the playoffs (where, somewhat laughably, they'll be the number one seeds). I know Switzerland are clearly a good side, but I can see us giving them a game. Portugal would brush us aside.

It would be such a pisser to do all that work to get second and then be immediately drawn against Italy or Portugal. 

[forameus]

Just now, Meadow_Jock said:

Some very decent analysis there, mate. 

The only thing I'd disagree about is Switzerland / Portugal being irrelevant. The thought of Cristiano Ronaldo running at Berra and Mulgrew is so awful it's funny, so I'm absolutely praying they manage to overhaul Switzerland and knock the Swiss down into the playoffs (where, somewhat laughably, they'll be the number one seeds). I know Switzerland are clearly a good side, but I can see us giving them a game. Portugal would brush us aside.

It would be such a pisser to do all that work to get second and then be immediately drawn against Italy or Portugal. 

Ah, yeah suppose your'e right.  I more meant irrelevant in terms of our prospects of being in the playoffs at all, nothing about what happens then.  

To be honest, there aren't really going to be any nice draws we could get should we get there.  Have they decided if they'll be doing seeding yet?  Didn't used to be until France looked like they weren't going to make it, seems they make it up as they go along.

[Meadow_Jock]

I think it's FIFA ranking. The ranking places are due to change again soon, subject to recent results, but they currently look like this:

Top seed:) Switzerland (4th) / Portugal (6th) (whoever comes out on top to be top seed)

2) Italy (12)

3) Wales (18)

4) Sweden (19)

5) Iceland (20)

6) Northern Ireland (23)

7) Ukraine (27)

8 ) Republic of Ireland (29)

9) Bosnia (30)

10) Netherlands (36)

11) Greece (38)

12) Denmark (46) / Montenegro (52) (whoever comes out on top is ranked here)

13) Scotland

_______________________

Now, clearly we have no more chance of being seeded than Mulgrew has of laying a boot on Ronaldo, but I still find this better than I'd dared hope. I had assumed that 3 out of the 4 seeds would be Italy, Portugal and Holland, and that we were therefore fucked before we even started.

In reality, many of the seeded teams will be pretty average...If Iceland and / or Northern Ireland could sneak above Wales or Sweden, or if Wales managed to get eliminated by a honking Republic of Ireland side, they could get even better.

What we'd really need though, is for Portugal to win that showdown with Switzerland in Lisbon.

...obviously this is all only relevant based on the assumption that we win both our games, but after pumping Malta that seems an absolute certainty. 

[gtbahfm]

Apologies if this has been mentioned already, but I just noticed that the final games are not all on the same days. Specifically, the Wales v Ireland game is the night after we play Slovenia, which means that those teams would know exactly where they stand, which seems a unfair.

Could we be in the position (depending on other group results) that if Scotland have somehow managed to win both matches, Ireland will know that they are out and the Wales game is a dead rubber?

[paul-r-cfc]

Thank the wise old minds at FIFA for that with their 'Week of football' pish

[forameus]

We actually play first out of everyone.  Groups C, E and F will conclude on Sunday night, D, I and G on Monday, then A, B and H on Tuesday.  I think E might be quite important to us, so we'll know if we're ahead of them by close of play.  Then it's a matter of waiting for Monday and Tuesday's results.  Ideally we find we're already ahead of teams in Group C or E, then we're all good.

EDIT: Actually, first point isn't strictly true.  We kick off at 5pm on Sunday, along with Group E.  Group C will know what they need to do by the time they kick off at 1945.

[dogmc]

We actually play first out of everyone.  Groups C, E and F will conclude on Sunday night, D, I and G on Monday, then A, B and H on Tuesday.  I think E might be quite important to us, so we'll know if we're ahead of them by close of play.  Then it's a matter of waiting for Monday and Tuesday's results.  Ideally we find we're already ahead of teams in Group C or E, then we're all good.
EDIT: Actually, first point isn't strictly true.  We kick off at 5pm on Sunday, along with Group E.  Group C will know what they need to do by the time they kick off at 1945.

Tbh I'd rather we play first. A clear idea that we need to be proactive and win will suit us better than trying to sit n guess n be shitebags a la Switzerland in euro 96.

[forameus]

Just now, dogmc said:

Tbh I'd rather we play first. A clear idea that we need to be proactive and win will suit us better than trying to sit n guess n be shitebags a la Switzerland in euro 96.

If we play first though that's exactly the situation we do have.  We'll have no idea what it's going to take.  In that case, I'd rather be the last set of games to play.

[dogmc]

If we play first though that's exactly the situation we do have.  We'll have no idea what it's going to take.  In that case, I'd rather be the last set of games to play.

Yeah that's true I was thinking more about being in between when the target could keep changing. We definitely need to approach the Slovakia game as a cup final n take grasp of the game. I dont mean daft gung ho but be assertive. Our defence isn't good enough to invite sides onto us. Its in the realms of possible bit I can't help but think the points dropped at home v England n Lithuania will do for us which is hugely frustrating

[Gordopolis]

The above makes for an exciting but stressful read!

I'm still semi-confident we can - if we avoid injuries to key players like Griffiths, Brown, Robertson, Armstrong - beat Slovakia. Equally, I think we can beat Slovenia.

What I'm now beginning to doubt is whether we can string the two wins together. Thursday (Slovakia) then Sunday (Slevenia) is basically a repeat of the Lithuania-Malta double header timewise, and during the Malta game it became apparent that the guys ran out of fuel/mojo after that excellent first 15 mins. Against Malta it fortunately didn't matter as we had the game wrapped up just after half time, but against Slovenia - a team who might well still be in with a chance of 2nd themselves - at a hostile away ground, we need to be sharper and fresher and prepared to put in the same effort as we do against Slovakia. If it comes to rotating the squad then there is a risk involved there - replacing our first picks (who we would presumably use vs Slovakia as it is the first must-win) with other, lesser, players could result in a slip-up. Maybe it's a matter of keeping the key player spine for both games and only risking fresher players elsewhere in the team.

This is going to be an uncomfortable 4 weeks...

[forameus]

I'd say that was just as much down to the opposition than anything else.  I think we'd have been able to raise it had we not been playing Malta, just looked to me like they believed in doing just enough to get through.

[Gordopolis]

I'd say that was just as much down to the opposition than anything else.  I think we'd have been able to raise it had we not been playing Malta, just looked to me like they believed in doing just enough to get through.

Maybe, but I find that quite annoying. It's not like they had to keep something back for a third match. I didn't expect leg breaking tackles, but a bit more of a will to thrash Malta, or turning up the pressure for short spells later on in the game, would have helped keep the feelgood factor going. As it was, I felt a bit flat after the game (and began to harbour the doubts re if we could produce two games running). Strachan sounded pretty dejected too. It was a perfect occasion to send the crowd home buzzing and could have avoided the slightly demoralising sight of Slovenia pushing us back into 4th place (I know it means nothing technically, but it shaves a little more off the mood of optimism imo).

[Guest DAVIDB69]

Some good analysis here still concerns me our average goal difference minus particularly the 5-1 Malta result will put us under pressure

[pandarilla]

Some good analysis here still concerns me our average goal difference minus particularly the 5-1 Malta result will put us under pressure

Gd is irrelevant against Malta, unless we're looking to finish 2nd in the group without winning both remaining games (in which case we almost certainly would be the worst 2nd placed team so it matters not).

Gd in the last two games could be important in terms of not being the worst 2nd place team. But it'll probably not be required. 2 wins should be enough.

[Guest DAVIDB69]

Gd is irrelevant against Malta, unless we're looking to finish 2nd in the group without winning both remaining games (in which case we almost certainly would be the worst 2nd placed team so it matters not).

Gd in the last two games could be important in terms of not being the worst 2nd place team. But it'll probably not be required. 2 wins should be enough.

Yes the goal difference is irrelevant for finishing second in the group, but if we do finish second strong possibility it's 14 points and a negative goal difference once the Malta results are taken off for the second place comparisons