Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Gordon EF]

For what it's worth, I don't think any serious person is singing the praises of Scotland's response to the pandemic. It's clear that by most metrics our cases / deaths are a bit lower than England's but still right up there in Europe. That's nothing to sing and dance about. It's likely that those slight differences are very little to do with any differences between the approaches of the HR or WM governments, in fact, I'd bet that none of the difference is.

Apart from Nicola Sturgeon generally appearing far more competent than the precession of goons pushed in front of the cameras at WM, I'd say the only thing I'd absolve the SG for is that they were not in a position to take some of the measures than needed to be taken at a UK-wide level at the beginning of this.

Whether you think they would have done better, worse or the same, if they had those powers is an entirely subjective point.

[Detournement]

3 minutes ago, renton said:

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_score

?

[renton]

3 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Well it's less, isn't it?

not sure what the point of his graph is to be honest. If I take 2020 deaths and subtract the previous year data, and then the data from the year before that all I get is a fixed offset in previous years data vs the 2020 data. So, if there is no statistical variance between countries usual death rates then you won't see it in that graph. Only the fact that the mean is lower demonstrates that Scotland has a lower  number of deaths in 2020.

f**k knows why he didn't just look at the z score if he was after normalised statisitical scoring?

[renton]

2 minutes ago, Detournement said:

?

Read up on what the Z score is, what it tells you statistically, then go to the first link to see what that tells you about the various countries travails in the epidemic.

That graph you posted only shows that Scotland has a lower number of 2020 deaths. Since there is no statistically significant variation between each countries death rates year on year (as there would not be with pretty much the same diet and health care system) then subtracting the 2020 deaths only adds an offset to the data, it won't change the underlying statistical variance. What it does show is that the Scottish mean is lower, hence we've had less 2020 (covid) deaths. 

As  calculation, it says nothing.

[Gordon EF]

5 minutes ago, renton said:

not sure what the point of his graph is to be honest. If I take 2020 deaths and subtract the previous year data, and then the data from the year before that all I get is a fixed offset in previous years data vs the 2020 data. So, if there is no statistical variance between countries usual death rates then you won't see it in that graph. Only the fact that the mean is lower demonstrates that Scotland has a lower  number of deaths in 2020.

f**k knows why he didn't just look at the z score if he was after normalised statisitical scoring?

Sats isn't my particular area of expertise but I wouldn't have thought p-scores (from I assumed some chi-squred test) are the way to go there. Since the data 5 points aren't independent, it'll be comparing Scotland's excesses in high death years to England's in low death years.

Edited June 26, 2020 by Gordon EF

[Detournement]

19 minutes ago, renton said:

not sure what the point of his graph is to be honest. If I take 2020 deaths and subtract the previous year data, and then the data from the year before that all I get is a fixed offset in previous years data vs the 2020 data. So, if there is no statistical variance between countries usual death rates then you won't see it in that graph. Only the fact that the mean is lower demonstrates that Scotland has a lower  number of deaths in 2020.

f**k knows why he didn't just look at the z score if he was after normalised statisitical scoring?

We have less excess deaths in 2020 than two of the previous 5 years. 

That graphs shows the excess deaths totals over 5 years but uses ten years of data eg the 2016 dot uses data going back to 2011.

 

[renton]

1 minute ago, Detournement said:

We have less excess deaths in 2020 than two of the previous 5 years. 

That graphs shows the excess deaths totals over 5 years but uses ten years of data eg the 2016 dot uses data going back to 2011.

 

As Gordon EF rightfully points out, p values are not useful here, comparing low England death years to high Scotland death years doesnt work. 

If you take the Z score, which is a normalised value of how off target an observed value is from the calculated normal you find that Scotland's is significantly lower than England. Z score is calcuted from the observed value subtracted from the population mean, divided by the standard deviation of the sample. So if there were no deaths above the mean value, then the numerator of the equation becomes zero and the z score is zero, as the observed population wanders above or below the mean it is expressed as a positive or negative score.

You can find that in the Euromomo link I put up earlier. 

Scotland's mortality rate is lower than England's on any fair metric. The reasons why are varied and many.

[Detournement]

30 minutes ago, renton said:

Read up on what the Z score is, what it tells you statistically, then go to the first link to see what that tells you about the various countries travails in the epidemic.

That graph you posted only shows that Scotland has a lower number of 2020 deaths. Since there is no statistically significant variation between each countries death rates year on year (as there would not be with pretty much the same diet and health care system) then subtracting the 2020 deaths only adds an offset to the data, it won't change the underlying statistical variance. What it does show is that the Scottish mean is lower, hence we've had less 2020 (covid) deaths. 

As  calculation, it says nothing.

It directly compares the per capita excess deaths of England and Scotland during the pandemic and finds they are extremely similar. 

It disproves what you were saying about England having significantly more excess deaths. 

[Del79]

 

[renton]

4 minutes ago, Detournement said:

It directly compares the per capita excess deaths of England and Scotland during the pandemic and finds they are extremely similar. 

It disproves what you were saying about England having significantly more excess deaths. 

It shows that Scotland's is lower, the level of similarity as derived by P value is less useful than the Z score. The P value compares each point in a population to every other point in the population being compared. The Z score compares the relevant population to the mean of it's own historical points. And then can be contrasted to z scores from other independent populations.

 

Edited June 26, 2020 by renton

[Gordon EF]

4 minutes ago, Detournement said:

It directly compares the per capita excess deaths of England and Scotland during the pandemic and finds they are extremely similar. 

It disproves what you were saying about England having significantly more excess deaths. 

That's just painful reading tbh.

Edited June 26, 2020 by Gordon EF

[DeeTillEhDeh]

That's just painful reading tbh.

He doesn't understand the figures tbqh

[Gordon EF]

We've moved through the stages of...

1. Scotland is worse than England.

2. Scotland is the same as England.

3. OK, Scotland is better but not significantly better.

Let's see if extrapolation is something H_B does understand.

[renton]

1 minute ago, Gordon EF said:

We've moved through the stages of...

1. Scotland is worse than England.

2. Scotland is the same as England.

3. OK, Scotland is better but not significantly better.

Let's see if extrapolation is something H_B does understand.

Pretty sure he used to come across as smarter than this.

[Thereisalight..]

“Second national lockdown not needed”. The words of Prof Neil Ferguson whose advice led to the decision to go into lockdown. If the “spike” and “second wave “ appears then lord help those who’re already too scared to leave the house or go into a shop 

[Thereisalight..]

NS also saying Scotland is “not far away from eliminating virus”. What an almighty U turn and considering normal life wasn’t supposed to resume until 2021 at the earliest I wonder what the doomsayers are making of cautious NS being so optimistic 

[renton]

2 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

NS also saying Scotland is “not far away from eliminating virus”. What an almighty U turn and considering normal life wasn’t supposed to resume until 2021 at the earliest I wonder what the doomsayers are making of cautious NS being so optimistic 

Probably fucking ecstatic that normality might be back sooner than later.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

NS also saying Scotland is “not far away from eliminating virus”. What an almighty U turn and considering normal life wasn’t supposed to resume until 2021 at the earliest I wonder what the doomsayers are making of cautious NS being so optimistic 

To be fair I don't think that many people thought we would be at this stage by now given the initial response to the crisis. I genuinely believe that England has moved out of lockdown too quickly and they will take longer to reduce the infection and death rates to the levels in Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland.

[Thereisalight..]

22 minutes ago, renton said:

Probably fucking ecstatic that normality might be back sooner than later.

You’d think so but so many are still crippled with fear

12 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

 

 

To be fair I don't think that many people thought we would be at this stage by now given the initial response to the crisis. I genuinely believe that England has moved out of lockdown too quickly and they will take longer to reduce the infection and death rates to the levels in Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland.

 

I thought we’d be at this stage around now. Economy matters whether people like it or not and I believe that forced both Governments hands to move quicker than they’d have perhaps liked.

[RH33]

7 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Zero deaths or infections in the Highland or Moray in the last week, getting optimistic about getting the Highland League up and running before too long.

October