Guest SJP79 Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 Was'nt too long ago that when you mentioned a second wave here people were shouting you down for scaremongering.............. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven W Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 13 minutes ago, bernardblack said: I said this morning 'wonder what the endgame is'. A really scary thought 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 38 minutes ago, bernardblack said: Have they spotted why it’s so bad in Leicester? People being daft and ignoring restrictions is the only logical answer here. There will be many others that do likewise and get away with it, right enough. I'm quite surprised that this actually happening. Unusually decisive from the Government to implement what will in most liklihood be an unpopular measure. Unquestionably the right choice though. No surprise Good News Johnson was nowhere to be seen when it was announced, right enough. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmic Joe Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 8 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: Playing Devil's advocate here, but cases in the UK are falling overall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Like the idea that people working on buses and in supermarkets should be forced to wear masks for 8 hour shifts to encourage passengers and shoppers to wear one for 15 minutes. Lots of workers have been wearing face coverings for 8/10/12 hour shifts per day as it is. And they're not interacting with the general public to anywhere near the same degree as the above two categories. The straightforward fact of the matter is that widespread use of face coverings are there primarily to protect the staff rather than the public in these environments, so by putting their narrow desire for convenience ahead of promoting prudent safety precautions in they're putting themselves, their families and their colleagues at greater risk. It's common or garden stupidity on display at all sorts of levels. Edited June 29, 2020 by vikingTON 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, Angusfifer said: I mean. They are though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunfermline Don Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 The PMs new Covid-19 rapid response team gets ready to go into action 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 1 hour ago, bernardblack said: Have they spotted why it’s so bad in Leicester? Heard a report at lunchtime saying they were just looking into it but hadn't found any noticeable pattern or reason at that point. The Leicester mayor didn't even get the data till (the day before?) yesterday as the govt were slow for some reasonm 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D.A.F.C Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53218704 ffs 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pcplum Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 13 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53218704 ffs This is all we need now. -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob1885 Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53218704 ffsnew thread needed for this IMO 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diamonds are Forever Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Steven W said: I said this morning 'wonder what the endgame is'. A really scary thought People seem to be completely under playing or ignoring the seasonality of this virus. Northern hemisphere countries were the worst hit February to April as they were coming out of winter. As the number of deaths falls across the north, the southern hemisphere countries now get hit as they move into winter - South American countries are the ones worst affected at the moment, Brazil are getting all the attention but in terms of deaths per population the likes of Peru and Chile are in line with them (despite varying degrees of lockdown). It seems similar to how Europe was affected in that there are slight variations between countries but a pretty uniform pattern across the continent. Australia and New Zealand seem to be the exception to this in the southern hemisphere as they managed to keep numbers so low to stop it becoming widespread, being island nations certainly helps with this (unless you are the UK obviously...). However for those countries in the south who didn't manage to prevent it spreading early on, they are all going to have to go through a wave of this. It also explains why countries in the north aren't seeing sudden rises in deaths when reducing lockdown. Some are seeing rises in cases (like the US) but deaths are still falling which shows either that the increase in cases is due to more testing, or the severity of the virus is decreasing, or both. The natural trend is for the virus to decline as summer approaches. Obviously there are numerous other factors at play which affect it, but the fact it is seasonal means it will be almost a full year before the whole world has had the full extent of it during their 'weaker' season and a true comparison can be made globally of the impact. If we do ever get a 'second wave' (not small regional flare ups, but an actual repeat of 3 months ago or similar) it will be in the winter, not in the next few months. To answer your point, there is no real end game, it's not just going to go away. Ideally we use the time from now until winter to get in place a proper strategy and iron out any issues with test and trace so we aren't shutting down areas of the country any time we get a small outbreak. Edited June 29, 2020 by Diamonds are Forever 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 55 minutes ago, Diamonds are Forever said: People seem to be completely under playing or ignoring the seasonality of this virus. Northern hemisphere countries were the worst hit February to April as they were coming out of winter. As the number of deaths falls across the north, the southern hemisphere countries now get hit as they move into winter - South American countries are the ones worst affected at the moment, Brazil are getting all the attention but in terms of deaths per population the likes of Peru and Chile are in line with them (despite varying degrees of lockdown). It seems similar to how Europe was affected in that there are slight variations between countries but a pretty uniform pattern across the continent. Australia and New Zealand seem to be the exception to this in the southern hemisphere as they managed to keep numbers so low to stop it becoming widespread, being island nations certainly helps with this (unless you are the UK obviously...). However for those countries in the south who didn't manage to prevent it spreading early on, they are all going to have to go through a wave of this. It also explains why countries in the north aren't seeing sudden rises in deaths when reducing lockdown. Some are seeing rises in cases (like the US) but deaths are still falling which shows either that the increase in cases is due to more testing, or the severity of the virus is decreasing, or both. The natural trend is for the virus to decline as summer approaches. Obviously there are numerous other factors at play which affect it, but the fact it is seasonal means it will be almost a full year before the whole world has had the full extent of it during their 'weaker' season and a true comparison can be made globally of the impact. If we do ever get a 'second wave' (not small regional flare ups, but an actual repeat of 3 months ago or similar) it will be in the winter, not in the next few months. To answer your point, there is no real end game, it's not just going to go away. Ideally we use the time from now until winter to get in place a proper strategy and iron out any issues with test and trace so we aren't shutting down areas of the country any time we get a small outbreak. That's a bit of a stretch. Firstly, we don't know the extent of the seasonality of Covid-19 so saying "the fact that it is seasonal" is nonsense. It's warmer and more humid in Sao Paulo in June than it is in Edinburgh. So it can hardly be the traditional seasonality factors that's causing the difference. Also, the US is seeing rising rates smack bang in the middle of their summer. There are so many other factors going on at the moment with countries being hit at different times, to different degrees and taking different approaches, it's absolutely wild to try and draw out these kinds of seasonality conclusions at the moment. It seems a reasonable bet that there will be a seasonality to Covid-19 because that's what we see with similar viruses. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullerene Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 6 hours ago, Gordon EF said: It's warmer and more humid in Sao Paulo in June than it is in Edinburgh. So it can hardly be the traditional seasonality factors that's causing the difference. Also, the US is seeing rising rates smack bang in the middle of their summer. In the USA it looks like the worse cases are states where communal responsibility sounds too much like Communism. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superbigal Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 So confirmed facts on Leicester.Spike.mostly in 1 part of the city. Mainly confined to young working aged Is community transmission. Also not factual but listening to a restaurant owner on 5 live. He says people have not been social distancing since restrictions lifted, so although disappointed not surprised. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 The problem Leicester are having is that there is no guidance for local lockdowns and the council have very limited power, why on earth has England relaxed the lockdown restrictions to pretty much nil before these plans were in place surely keeping the whole country sticking with the 2m distance as even a start until you have local people able to make decisions. Quite frankly this should be a resigning issue for Hancock and Johnson but they are probably about 10 calamities past resigning 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superbigal Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 But why have the good citizens of Leicester thought it appropriate to flout the regulations ? Virus does not spread by magic. May be an element of what you reap is what you sow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dee Man Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 18 minutes ago, 101 said: The problem Leicester are having is that there is no guidance for local lockdowns and the council have very limited power, why on earth has England relaxed the lockdown restrictions to pretty much nil before these plans were in place surely keeping the whole country sticking with the 2m distance as even a start until you have local people able to make decisions. Quite frankly this should be a resigning issue for Hancock and Johnson but they are probably about 10 calamities past resigning It looks like they are past trying to contain it and are happy for it just to rip through communities in the hope that people build up immunity to it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dirty dingus Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 24 minutes ago, superbigal said: So confirmed facts on Leicester. Spike.mostly in 1 part of the city. Mainly confined to young working aged Is community transmission. Also not factual but listening to a restaurant owner on 5 live. He says people have not been social distancing since restrictions lifted, so although disappointed not surprised. A specialist from Leicester was on radio 4 said they raised concerns 11 days ago when they first seen a large rise in infectionsand asked for localised data and de-centralised testing to be made available . The mayor found out about the lockdown in an an e-mail after midnight. Matt Hancock come on talking about feels passing on the responsibility to councils and fumbling about how data and things will be available from now on. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Dee Man said: It looks like they are past trying to contain it and are happy for it just to rip through communities in the hope that people build up immunity to it. Then why bother with local lockdowns? If Boris has a plan he's never communicated it to the public and if he wants to do what Sweden did then we have royally fucked the economy due to the cuts the Tories have made to the health service, because if the NHS had been gaurenteed not to drown then we could have carried on as normal. It's ballsy to go for immunity when no-one know what that means or how long it lasts, eradication is the only way until we know more about the virus. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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