Billy Jean King Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Isn't the vulnerable list supposed to comprise something like 95% of likely hospitalisations? If the vaccine is effictive at preventing serious illness as it seems to be from the trial data, covid will no longer overwhelm the health system and that particular goal will be met. At that point, restrictions can no longer justified and they should remain only if something goes horribly wrong somewhere. Yes that's the plan but only time will tell if it pans out as hoped. Hospitalization numbers are the only guide. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glen Sannox Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 57 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said: The english NHS apparently vaccinating at a rate of 140 per minute. Is there anything about this that makes people think that theres something the Scottish Government arent telling us about our supplies? Freeman’s backpedal on the number for the end of january? I hate myself for thinking this but is there any chance supplies have been diverted from Scotland to elsewhere in the UK? Hopefully theres someone a wee bit more aware who can shed some light on it? My mrs practice will only be able to vaccinate 60% of the people they expected to be able for the January targets etc. Is it either, the Scottish plans are shite? The vaccine has been diverted? Or a mix of both? If supply was being diverted elsewhere, you would never hear the end of it. It’s more likely to be good old Scottish incompetence. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 31 minutes ago, Wee Bully said: I’m not really seeing that viewpoint tbf. I don’t think there is anyone on here suggesting that (unless you mean Pep...) 24 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said: I never said zero I said an acceptable level. That is yet to be defined by any nation. As for the VT mewl, that's nonsense from start to finish. It will either work or it won't and despite his protests only time WILL tell it's a waiting game until the serious illness and deaths do decrease to the "acceptable" level. Anyone who thinks measures will be relaxed before admissions and deaths decrease to the levels required is kidding themselves on as it's the one and only measure that will prove the vaccination programmes effectiveness. It's his incessant totally baseless stating of his opinion as fact that has seen me pap him on ignore for the last couple of weeks. It's been good not to see his bleatings bar requotes. Sorry I should have specified I didn't mean on here. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 hours ago, btb said: I see Dominic Raab is today saying that the UK's focus on giving all UK adults a first dose by September means some folk might miss getting their second jab within 12 weeks. From what I'm reading he wasn't relating the two, he just wouldn't give a guarantee that everyone would get their second jab before 12 weeks as it is dependent on supply. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyrExile Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 hours ago, Billy Jean King said: I don't know how many times it needs to be repeated but vaccination numbers have no direct correlation to relaxing restrictions. The only thing that will do that is a large reduction in hospital admissions and deaths sustained to a level deemed acceptable. The narrative up to now is that the vaccine will result in this but we simply don't know, only time will tell. The only thing we can do is continue vaccination and wait to see the actual results on hospital numbers and deaths. It's why I posted that for the theory to be correct we really need to see sustained reductions in these areas but those working in the NHS who post on here are pointing out that we are still several weeks away from those numbers even peaking so it's then a case of waiting to see just how quickly they do decline after the peak as that and that alone is going to control the narrative when it comes to relaxing measures. Vaccinations will have a direct correlation as will the weather on restrictions being eased. Perhaps the weather is more important as it’s the main cause of hospitals clogging up with winter pressures each year 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btb Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said: The english NHS apparently vaccinating at a rate of 140 per minute. Is there anything about this that makes people think that theres something the Scottish Government arent telling us about our supplies? Freeman’s backpedal on the number for the end of january? I hate myself for thinking this but is there any chance supplies have been diverted from Scotland to elsewhere in the UK? Hopefully theres someone a wee bit more aware who can shed some light on it? My mrs practice will only be able to vaccinate 60% of the people they expected to be able for the January targets etc. Is it either, the Scottish plans are shite? The vaccine has been diverted? Or a mix of both? Would've made more sense to say 200,000 per day. Did the calculation in my head, being good at mental arithmetic is indicative of having a large aubergine. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 For those that appear to disagree with the strategy that we need to wait and see hospital admissions and deaths falling to whatever is deemed "acceptable " to start releasing measures, what indicator of effectiveness do you think we should be using to judge when to start as I can'treallysee any other indicator of effectiveness ? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btb Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, welshbairn said: From what I'm reading he wasn't relating the two, he just wouldn't give a guarantee that everyone would get their second jab before 12 weeks as it is dependent on supply. ....which means they might miss it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superbigal Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) 23 hours ago, superbigal said: Daily review. Overall cases per 100K for 7 days peaked at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan From 7th to 13th January we are at 232.8 Todays figure is for 8th Jan to14th Jan is 222.5 Another single Day drop of 4.42% and a drop from the peak of 26.30% If the R is 1.4 then I was the 1st man on Mars. Daily movement for all councils. Just look at all the drops. I really think with this progress the better behaving Eastern side of the country should stand a chance of going back in the tier system when they review. Clearly the usual suspects need left in Tier 4 at best. Stranraer looks like it needs eradicated from the planet. NB The UK figure for same dates is 558.2 per 100K or about 2.5 times higher than Scotland. Glasgow City 351.1 to 338.3 Regains it's usual top spot. Why does it perform so badly compared to Edinburgh ? North Lanarkshire 345.1 to 323.7 Inverclyde 347.0 to 309.8 Over 10% down and of the top spot Renfrewshire 304.9 to 302.6 Dumfries & Galloway 283.5 to 285.5 Stranraer West & Stranraer South both over 1000 North Ayrshire 282.0 to 281.3 East Dunbartonshire 289.0 to 272.5 East Ayrshire 264.7 to 270.5 South Lanarkshire 266.7 to 262.1 West Dunbartonshire 267.6 to 253.0 Clackmannanshire 246.4 to 242.5 Dundee City 262.5 to 242.4 Aberdeen City 245.3 to 241.0 Falkirk 224.4 to 225.6 South Ayrshire 222.0 to 225.6 Scottish Borders 189.6 to 185.3 Fife 193.5 to 180.4 Perth & Kinross 217.2 to 178.3 Down 17.91% East Renfrewshire 205.2 to 174.8 Down 14.81% Angus 181.6 to 167.8 Highlands 178.9 to 163.3 Invergordon over 1000 Aberdeenshire 167.7 to 148.9 Down 11.28% Stirling 131.6 to 148.6 West Lothian 156.2 to 144.2 City Of Edinburgh 159.3 to 144.0 Down 10% Moray 110.6 to 108.5 Midlothian 115.7 to 104.9 East Lothian 99.0 to 100.8 Western Isles 44.9 to 97.3 Shetland Islands 82.9 to 82.9 Argyll & Bute 81.5 to 82.7 Orkney Island 18.0 to 18.0 Edited January 17, 2021 by superbigal 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Vaccinations will have a direct correlation as will the weather on restrictions being eased. Perhaps the weather is more important as it’s the main cause of hospitals clogging up with winter pressures each yearYour right to a point but it still boils down to the same conclusion, we MUST see that happening before we can relax measures. If we are waiting on seasonality reduction it will be May or June at the earliest. I'd be hopeful that vaccination will have numbers reduced sufficiently before that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyrExile Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 55 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: According to the plan provided last week Scotland has the stock to be going faster, but are choosing to focus on getting care homes done first. I don't really agree that is the right approach, but they've gone for it, and are almost finished with the care homes. Once they start the mass rollout proper we'll have a better idea of who is more efficient. The lady from Nhs Grampian let the cat out the bag earlier that the mass vaccination centre will be the game changer. Not due to open until sometime in February yet another tranche go live down south tomorrow. Can’t help but think planning was a bit slower in Scotland. Will let the numbers do the talking though 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Daily review. Overall cases per 100K for 7 days peaked at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan From 7th to 13th January we are at 232.8 Todays figure is for 8th Jan to14th Jan is 222.5 Another single Day drop of 4.42% and a drop from the peak of 26.30% If the R is 1.4 then I was the 1st man on Mars. Daily movement for all councils. Just look at all the drops. I really think with this progress the better behaving Eastern side of the country should stand a chance of going back in the tier system when they review. Clearly the usual suspects need left in Tier 4 at best. Stranraer looks like it needs eradicated from the planet. Glasgow City 351.1 to 338.3 Regains it's usual top spot. Why does it perform so badly compared to Edinburgh ? North Lanarkshire 345.1 to 323.7 Inverclyde 347.0 to 309.8 Over 10% down and of the top spot Renfrewshire 304.9 to 302.6 Dumfries & Galloway 283.5 to 285.5 Stranraer West & Stranraer South both over 1000 North Ayrshire 282.0 to 281.3 East Dunbartonshire 289.0 to 272.5 East Ayrshire 264.7 to 270.5 South Lanarkshire 266.7 to 262.1 West Dunbartonshire 267.6 to 253.0 Clackmannanshire 246.4 to 242.5 Dundee City 262.5 to 242.4 Aberdeen City 245.3 to 241.0 Falkirk 224.4 to 225.6 South Ayrshire 222.0 to 225.6 Scottish Borders 189.6 to 185.3 Fife 193.5 to 180.4 Perth & Kinross 217.2 to 178.3 Down 17.91% East Renfrewshire 205.2 to 174.8 Down 14.81% Angus 181.6 to 167.8 Highlands 178.9 to 163.3 Invergordon over 1000 Aberdeenshire 167.7 to 148.9 Down 11.28% Stirling 131.6 to 148.6 West Lothian 156.2 to 144.2 City Of Edinburgh 159.3 to 144.0 Down 10% Moray 110.6 to 108.5 Midlothian 115.7 to 104.9 East Lothian 99.0 to 100.8 Western Isles 44.9 to 97.3 Shetland Islands 82.9 to 82.9 Argyll & Bute 81.5 to 82.7 Orkney Island 18.0 to 18.0Are you going to start doing similar for hospital admissions, ICU numbers etc as those are a far better indicator to relaxing measures than new cases. Test positivity levels will have very little bearing while the pressure continues to grow on the NHS. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyrExile Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Billy Jean King said: 4 minutes ago, AyrExile said: Vaccinations will have a direct correlation as will the weather on restrictions being eased. Perhaps the weather is more important as it’s the main cause of hospitals clogging up with winter pressures each year Your right to a point but it still boils down to the same conclusion, we MUST see that happening before we can relax measures. If we are waiting on seasonality reduction it will be May or June at the earliest. I'd be hopeful that vaccination will have numbers reduced sufficiently before that. No reason why end of March it can’t improve. Alongside old people falling on ice etc staff sickness with colds and flu should be dropping by then. The common theme is the creaking Nhs though and the safety net being applied to stop it breaking 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aladdin Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Daily review. Overall cases per 100K for 7 days peaked at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan From 7th to 13th January we are at 232.8 Todays figure is for 8th Jan to14th Jan is 222.5 Another single Day drop of 4.42% and a drop from the peak of 26.30% If the R is 1.4 then I was the 1st man on Mars. Daily movement for all councils. Just look at all the drops. I really think with this progress the better behaving Eastern side of the country should stand a chance of going back in the tier system when they review. Clearly the usual suspects need left in Tier 4 at best. Stranraer looks like it needs eradicated from the planet. NB The UK figure for same dates is 558.2 per 100K or about 2.5 times higher than Scotland. Glasgow City 351.1 to 338.3 Regains it's usual top spot. Why does it perform so badly compared to Edinburgh ? North Lanarkshire 345.1 to 323.7 Inverclyde 347.0 to 309.8 Over 10% down and of the top spot Renfrewshire 304.9 to 302.6 Dumfries & Galloway 283.5 to 285.5 Stranraer West & Stranraer South both over 1000 North Ayrshire 282.0 to 281.3 East Dunbartonshire 289.0 to 272.5 East Ayrshire 264.7 to 270.5 South Lanarkshire 266.7 to 262.1 West Dunbartonshire 267.6 to 253.0 Clackmannanshire 246.4 to 242.5 Dundee City 262.5 to 242.4 Aberdeen City 245.3 to 241.0 Falkirk 224.4 to 225.6 South Ayrshire 222.0 to 225.6 Scottish Borders 189.6 to 185.3 Fife 193.5 to 180.4 Perth & Kinross 217.2 to 178.3 Down 17.91% East Renfrewshire 205.2 to 174.8 Down 14.81% Angus 181.6 to 167.8 Highlands 178.9 to 163.3 Invergordon over 1000 Aberdeenshire 167.7 to 148.9 Down 11.28% Stirling 131.6 to 148.6 West Lothian 156.2 to 144.2 City Of Edinburgh 159.3 to 144.0 Down 10% Moray 110.6 to 108.5 Midlothian 115.7 to 104.9 East Lothian 99.0 to 100.8 Western Isles 44.9 to 97.3 Shetland Islands 82.9 to 82.9 Argyll & Bute 81.5 to 82.7 Orkney Island 18.0 to 18.0Its going to be interesting to see what reasons come out for the higher rates seen in Glasgow v Edinburgh. Definitely a correlation between higher rates of deprivation and rates of the virus. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 I'm expecting NS to extend the lockdown until the end of February, regardless of what happens between now and the end of January. It's shite for those impacted (and I include myself in that), but if they are planning on having the most vulnerable get their first dose by mid-feb, and it takes around 3 weeks to be effective, then waiting that extra month will ensure those vaccinated are sufficiently protected. Many of us here have always said we could get behind the lockdown if the time was being used purposefully, and that would meet that criteria. A solid explanation of lockdown till 3 weeks after the last of the most vulnerable gets their first dose, then back to the routemap to work our way down the levels (reviewed weekly and applied properly) as hospitalisations etc continue to fall would be acceptable IMO. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Aladdin said: Its going to be interesting to see what reasons come out for the higher rates seen in Glasgow v Edinburgh. Definitely a correlation between higher rates of deprivation and rates of the virus. Maybe it's because the numbers are too low to be statistically significant but there doesn't seem to be any correlation in Inverness, Merkinch and Hilton usually hit all the greatest deprivation indicators. https://www.inverness-courier.co.uk/news/what-s-the-covid-infection-rate-where-you-live-225057/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superbigal Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said: 33 minutes ago, superbigal said: Daily review. Overall cases per 100K for 7 days peaked at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan From 7th to 13th January we are at 232.8 Todays figure is for 8th Jan to14th Jan is 222.5 Another single Day drop of 4.42% and a drop from the peak of 26.30% If the R is 1.4 then I was the 1st man on Mars. Daily movement for all councils. Just look at all the drops. I really think with this progress the better behaving Eastern side of the country should stand a chance of going back in the tier system when they review. Clearly the usual suspects need left in Tier 4 at best. Stranraer looks like it needs eradicated from the planet. Glasgow City 351.1 to 338.3 Regains it's usual top spot. Why does it perform so badly compared to Edinburgh ? North Lanarkshire 345.1 to 323.7 Inverclyde 347.0 to 309.8 Over 10% down and of the top spot Renfrewshire 304.9 to 302.6 Dumfries & Galloway 283.5 to 285.5 Stranraer West & Stranraer South both over 1000 North Ayrshire 282.0 to 281.3 East Dunbartonshire 289.0 to 272.5 East Ayrshire 264.7 to 270.5 South Lanarkshire 266.7 to 262.1 West Dunbartonshire 267.6 to 253.0 Clackmannanshire 246.4 to 242.5 Dundee City 262.5 to 242.4 Aberdeen City 245.3 to 241.0 Falkirk 224.4 to 225.6 South Ayrshire 222.0 to 225.6 Scottish Borders 189.6 to 185.3 Fife 193.5 to 180.4 Perth & Kinross 217.2 to 178.3 Down 17.91% East Renfrewshire 205.2 to 174.8 Down 14.81% Angus 181.6 to 167.8 Highlands 178.9 to 163.3 Invergordon over 1000 Aberdeenshire 167.7 to 148.9 Down 11.28% Stirling 131.6 to 148.6 West Lothian 156.2 to 144.2 City Of Edinburgh 159.3 to 144.0 Down 10% Moray 110.6 to 108.5 Midlothian 115.7 to 104.9 East Lothian 99.0 to 100.8 Western Isles 44.9 to 97.3 Shetland Islands 82.9 to 82.9 Argyll & Bute 81.5 to 82.7 Orkney Island 18.0 to 18.0 Are you going to start doing similar for hospital admissions, ICU numbers etc as those are a far better indicator to relaxing measures than new cases. Test positivity levels will have very little bearing while the pressure continues to grow on the NHS. All I would say on that point is infections have been dropping for about 10 days. If we assume hospital admissions are generally 7-10 days after confirmed infection then by default they should now start to drop. Deaths maybe another week to 10 days behind that. All just theory of course. The R rate is not well over 1 though. Edited January 17, 2021 by superbigal 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron Aldo Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 If we do go back to the tier system at the end of February (just as an example) then would people say its likely that the criteria for who goes into what tier should be changed from cases to hospital admissions.You'd hope and expect that the vaccine will have had some sort of impact by then. I'm sure the current criteria for tier 4 is 300 cases per 100k but that sort of becomes redundant if we reach a point where none (or very little) of those cases require hospital treatment. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mizfit Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 If we do go back to the tier system at the end of February (just as an example) then would people say its likely that the criteria for who goes into what tier should be changed from cases to hospital admissions.You'd hope and expect that the vaccine will have had some sort of impact by then. I'm sure the current criteria for tier 4 is 300 cases per 100k but that sort of becomes redundant if we reach a point where none (or very little) of those cases require hospital treatment.Any (temporary) return to tiers should take into consideration vaccinated portion of the local population and hospital numbers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Ron Aldo said: If we do go back to the tier system at the end of February (just as an example) then would people say its likely that the criteria for who goes into what tier should be changed from cases to hospital admissions. You'd hope and expect that the vaccine will have had some sort of impact by then. I'm sure the current criteria for tier 4 is 300 cases per 100k but that sort of becomes redundant if we reach a point where none (or very little) of those cases require hospital treatment. Very true. I wouldn't be holding my breath for that happening immediately, though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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