Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[djchapsticks]

53 minutes ago, TheJTS98 said:

The available figures don't show that the UK is at any risk of people just binning compliance with restrictions.

The latest polling from Ipsos Mori on the issue shows that 85% think the restrictions are either about right or should be tighter. That suggests the authorities still have a bit of leeway in terms of what to do over the next few months, and to possibly extend.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/most-britons-continue-say-they-are-following-coronavirus-rules-almost-half-believe-lockdown

I understand people feeling fed up and it getting to folk in the head. I'm on my third lockdown now and mine have been more restrictive than the lockdowns in the UK, so I do understand. But I think we need to be careful of developing a narrative on this thread that people are about to just sack off the restrictions. Some people will, sure, but the figures don't suggest this is going to be a big problem.

No one is denying that. Most of the complainants on this thread would also still be in that 85%. Myself included. 

At the current time. 

However, as cases will inevitably fall and hospitals will once again empty out, you are going to absolutely see people's patience and resolve being tested if restrictions are kept in place longer than they must. They will only have leeway to extend if serious cases, hospitalisations and deaths remain high. 

Say we reach March and there are still around 2000 people per day catching it but due to the vaccination now taking it's effect in vulnerable groups, serious illness has been driven down to the stage where only a couple of people require hospital treatment, that sort of scenario in the eyes of most rational people really should not warrant ongoing lockdowns and mass restrictions. However the fear being borne out of their constant narrative is that it would continue even in a scenario such as this. 

These fears could easily be put at ease at any point. That they are not easing these fears is what's concerning people. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by djchapsticks

[Donathan]

The available figures don't show that the UK is at any risk of people just binning compliance with restrictions.
The latest polling from Ipsos Mori on the issue shows that 85% think the restrictions are either about right or should be tighter. That suggests the authorities still have a bit of leeway in terms of what to do over the next few months, and to possibly extend.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/most-britons-continue-say-they-are-following-coronavirus-rules-almost-half-believe-lockdown
I understand people feeling fed up and it getting to folk in the head. I'm on my third lockdown now and mine have been more restrictive than the lockdowns in the UK, so I do understand. But I think we need to be careful of developing a narrative on this thread that people are about to just sack off the restrictions. Some people will, sure, but the figures don't suggest this is going to be a big problem.

Does people thinking they should be tighter actually correlate with compliance though?

I reckon there’s a fairly significant minority that want tighter restrictions on everyone else but still plan to ignore them.

[superbigal]

Is anyone else finding it really hard to feel positive or optimistic right now? NS would do well to try and use some positivity in her messaging, if this negativity continues a lot more people will hit f**k it.

Ever since we started vaccinations it's been bad news after bad news, and trying to generate compliance through fear mongering isn't going to help rational discussion going forward.

It is even worse when I keep publishing that England is in more than twice as bad a state as Scotland for infections, hospital admissions and deaths.
So we keep stoom and let the doom from Ingurland be heard as the loudest voice.
Add to that the sustained daily drop in infections for 3 weeks now. Well over 40% lower than the peak. That peak I hasten to add was still lower than England today.
Cities like Edinburgh being back to the levels where they were screaming for tier 2 previously.
The R rate was clearly below 1 when she was using old stats to say 1.4.
Fear fear fear. In a way it's working, but come next Tuesday when all metrics will point to reopening of Schools and a return to the 5 levels etc, this rhetoric should stop.

[101]

Apparently Boris will be trying to get into a Scottish vaccine center, I am for once thankful that Scotland trains it's GP receptionists as the world's toughest bouncers. There's no chance he will get past them as I'm sure you have to be dead if you just rock up and expect to be seen.

[Guest TheJTS98]

17 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

These fears could easily be put at ease at any point. That they are not easing these fears is what's concerning people. 

I think it would be counter-productive for the government to publicly say 'We're going to ease off soon, cheer up everybody'.

For two reasons.

Firstly, many people will hear 'ease up soon' and understand 'ease up now'. And secondly, things can change quickly, as we've seen. There's no sense in promising or hinting at things that may or may not happen. Building people's hopes up and having to row back is a lot more difficult than being a bit more pessimistic and then surprising people with good news.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

Preggos shouldn’t get the vaccine. That rules out the entirety of the females aged 14-25 in Lanarkshire.

[djchapsticks]

17 minutes ago, TheJTS98 said:

I think it would be counter-productive for the government to publicly say 'We're going to ease off soon, cheer up everybody'.

For two reasons.

Firstly, many people will hear 'ease up soon' and understand 'ease up now'. And secondly, things can change quickly, as we've seen. There's no sense in promising or hinting at things that may or may not happen. Building people's hopes up and having to row back is a lot more difficult than being a bit more pessimistic and then surprising people with good news.

There is a massive amount of middle ground to be found between what you are saying and the noises currently coming out of the government though. 

Again, through the last several pages, many people have expressed concern at the tone being used and the sheer level of negativity instilling not only fear, but a 'f**k it' attitude. 

It's possible to maintain the focus on the current graveness of the situation but also allowing for some optimism of lifting restrictions and a full return to normality (not 'a greater level of normal') without putting a date on it. 

[TheScarf]

10 hours ago, djchapsticks said:

My partner is a sole trading hairdresser who is newly self employed. Becuase she doesn't have a business premises and works from a separate facility in our garden, she cannot claim any sort of relief whatsoever. She is fully registered and insured as well as compliant with regulations but has not worked a scratch from the first week in December other than the two weeks in December she was allowed when lockdown was eased. 

She is expected to close under duress and because she is not a business premesis no relief provided for her sacrifice. I understand the need to close presently but do not understand why she cannot be helped in terms of relief. If she's important and high risk enough to be forced to close then surely she should also qualify for help. We are lucky to have a very modest amount of savings but this is going to wipe us out in very quick time. If we reach March and she is still forced to close without any sort of relief, what are we supposed to do to pay our mortgage and bills? It's fucking ridiculous to be made to feel like you are a massive criminal and are making some sort of morally corrupt choice by considering whether you cut someone's hair or not. 

That is where we are as a society right now. People the length and breadth of the country made to feel like criminals for wanting to survive. This cannot continue. 

IMO, if you're self employed you should be eligible for Government help. end of story.

[Guest TheJTS98]

9 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

There is a massive amount of middle ground to be found between what you are saying and the noises currently coming out of the government though. 

Again, through the last several pages, many people have expressed concern at the tone being used and the sheer level of negativity instilling not only fear, but a 'f**k it' attitude. 

It's possible to maintain the focus on the current graveness of the situation but also allowing for some optimism of lifting restrictions and a full return to normality (not 'a greater level of normal') without putting a date on it. 

I don't really see what they could usefully say.

I listen to podcasts and read things with experts from plenty of different parts of the world and the recurring theme when it comes to easing of restrictions (in loads of countries) is that it's too early in the process to know when different things will be possible. This is not just a UK issue. There is general agreement about this.

I mentioned on this thread a while back that one current complication in the UK is the picking apart of the impact of the vaccination programme from the impact of the current lockdown situation. That makes reading what's happening quite tricky at the moment, and no country has a good answer to that. I mentioned before that Bristol University are doing some work in this area, but it'll take a while to get anything useful.

One thing that comes up again and again around the world is that it's more complicated than 'We get to X number of hospitalisations and then ease restrictions'. Because there are more moving parts to this and it's simply pretty complicated. There is still a lot that is simply unknown about vaccinations. People are asking for a level of certainty that doesn't exist.

If the government hint at any kind of target for, say, re-opening pubs, they are simply creating a rod for their own back in a process where the future is very hard to read, and risking further demoralising the public and taking shitloads of grief if they have to row back on it.

I don't see what they can do.

Edited January 28, 2021 by TheJTS98

[mizfit]

Apparently Boris will be trying to get into a Scottish vaccine center, I am for once thankful that Scotland trains it's GP receptionists as the world's toughest bouncers. There's no chance he will get past them as I'm sure you have to be dead if you just rock up and expect to be seen.

Last April I called my GO Surgery because I had a sinus infection that hadn’t shifted in 2 weeks. Receptionist didn’t even say hello before saying “if you’ve Covid symptoms follow the advice or book a test.”

[Elixir]

9 hours ago, NotThePars said:

I'm still gone at someone claiming foreign holidays were a necessity. I think I must've missed it in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

Err, while no-one has a 'given right' to enter a country, the last 50 years of increasing globalisation and the fact that so many people have family ties across borders facilitates the fact that in reality, being able to travel is a necessity. Most people also work to live. If the main result of that for some is to pish away their free time loafing about inside or down the pub then that's up to them, but most want off this cold, rain and wind soaked island every now and then.

[Marshmallo]

1 hour ago, TheJTS98 said:

I listen to podcasts and read things with experts from plenty of different parts of the world

[hk blues]

15 minutes ago, Elixir said:

Err, while no-one has a 'given right' to enter a country, the last 50 years of increasing globalisation and the fact that so many people have family ties across borders facilitates the fact that in reality, being able to travel is a necessity. Most people also work to live. If the main result of that for some is to pish away their free time loafing about inside or down the pub then that's up to them, but most want off this cold, rain and wind soaked island every now and then.

Being able to travel doesn't really mean the same as being able to go on a foreign holiday though.  

[Elixir]

 

[Bairnardo]

1 hour ago, TheJTS98 said:

I don't really see what they could usefully say.

I listen to podcasts and read things with experts from plenty of different parts of the world and the recurring theme when it comes to easing of restrictions (in loads of countries) is that it's too early in the process to know when different things will be possible. This is not just a UK issue. There is general agreement about this.

I mentioned on this thread a while back that one current complication in the UK is the picking apart of the impact of the vaccination programme from the impact of the current lockdown situation. That makes reading what's happening quite tricky at the moment, and no country has a good answer to that. I mentioned before that Bristol University are doing some work in this area, but it'll take a while to get anything useful.

One thing that comes up again and again around the world is that it's more complicated than 'We get to X number of hospitalisations and then ease restrictions'. Because there are more moving parts to this and it's simply pretty complicated. There is still a lot that is simply unknown about vaccinations. People are asking for a level of certainty that doesn't exist.

If the government hint at any kind of target for, say, re-opening pubs, they are simply creating a rod for their own back in a process where the future is very hard to read, and risking further demoralising the public and taking shitloads of grief if they have to row back on it.

I don't see what they can do.

How about a broad strokes acknowledgment that massive restrictions will not continue to destroy everyone in order to minimise potential exposure of the few who will be significantly harmed by this virus, with said restrictions being replaced by a vaccine in terms of mitigation of risk. The quite literally all I want. Any timeline is secondary to even an acknowledgement that we have the stomach to accept that people die of things all the time and covid will simply be an addition to that list.

[Elixir]

15 minutes ago, hk blues said:

Being able to travel doesn't really mean the same as being able to go on a foreign holiday though.  

But it's the reality. Travel first and foremost facilitates the trading of goods every bit as much as the movement of people for work, family, and leisure reasons. Granted, I have no idea why anyone would want to 'holiday' right now when there is next to nothing you can do and it would be a sanitised experience anyway.

[Guest TheJTS98]

10 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

How about a broad strokes acknowledgment that massive restrictions will not continue to destroy everyone in order to minimise potential exposure of the few who will be significantly harmed by this virus, with said restrictions being replaced by a vaccine in terms of mitigation of risk. The quite literally all I want. Any timeline is secondary to even an acknowledgement that we have the stomach to accept that people die of things all the time and covid will simply be an addition to that list.

You know how the media work.

Anything along those lines will be met with an immediate demand for clarification and a timeline etc etc and then the government ends up caving in and making some rash promise or other.

'When you say that tough restrictions will not be enforced long-term, do you mean people can expect to be back in football grounds this year? What do you mean by long-term? Can you put a time-frame on that?'

It's a journalists dream.

Edited January 28, 2021 by TheJTS98

[Steven W]

2 hours ago, superbigal said:

It is even worse when I keep publishing that England is in more than twice as bad a state as Scotland for infections, hospital admissions and deaths.
So we keep stoom and let the doom from Ingurland be heard as the loudest voice.
Add to that the sustained daily drop in infections for 3 weeks now. Well over 40% lower than the peak. That peak I hasten to add was still lower than England today.
Cities like Edinburgh being back to the levels where they were screaming for tier 2 previously.
The R rate was clearly below 1 when she was using old stats to say 1.4.
Fear fear fear. In a way it's working, but come next Tuesday when all metrics will point to reopening of Schools and a return to the 5 levels etc, this rhetoric should stop.

Tuesday is something of an acid test.

It's been said that the schools will return in a phased manner, with the younger primary schools going back first (and I keep hearing about mounting evidence that transmission in that age group is pretty neglible).

Between the phased manner, the two weeks notice we're going to be getting, and the falling case levels, I was hopeful Tuesday would see an announcement of some kind of return for some kids after the mid Feb break.

I worry though that BJ's announcement of "8th March at earliest" will impact this though as recent history has shown that NS prefers to wait for BJ to show his hand first.

[hk blues]

11 minutes ago, Elixir said:

But it's the reality. Travel first and foremost facilitates the trading of goods every bit as much as the movement of people for work, family, and leisure reasons. Granted, I have no idea why anyone would want to 'holiday' right now when there is next to nothing you can do and it would be a sanitised experience anyway.

You are still not differentiating between travel and going on a foreign holiday. 

[No_Problemo]

5 minutes ago, TheJTS98 said:

You know how the media work.

Anything along those lines will be met with an immediate demand for clarification and a timeline etc etc and then the government ends up caving in and making some rash promise or other.

'When you say that tough restrictions will not be enforced long-term, do you mean people can expect to be back in football grounds this year? What do you mean by long-term? Can you put a time-frame on that?'

It's a journalists dream.

I don’t really see the issue with this. 
 

How about the government stopped fucking with people by being astonishingly negative (yesterday) and then actually manage the media and not do anything rash when questioned about it.

I think we can surely expect that little.