Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[madwullie]

If anyone finds a link to the actual model rather than just commentary could they post it please. These are the only assumptions I can find from a quick look. Would be interested to see what vaccine take up they fed in too. 

(taken from itv website) 

Edited March 10, 2021 by madwullie

[Todd_is_God]

1 hour ago, super_carson said:

I suspect that Sturgeon is being quite deliberate in using vague terminology -  she is an excellent speaker, regardless of your opinion on her policies, and seems to be quite deliberate in her choice of words.   

She has been very conscious to avoid putting fixed numbers or dates on things so far, and using vague terminology like elimination is pretty much consistent with that.  That's not to say I necessarily agree with it, I would much rather that we have a quantifiable objective we were working towards, but I suspect that they still don't know what that would look like yet.  It's not great that we still seem to vague about our plan going forward, and while I'm pleased to hear her make references to crowds into stadium, the idea that we may have legal restrictions after everyone is vaccinated is concerning. 

I would hope there will be significant detail in the route-map next week, and I would also hope there is increasing pressure on what a return to normality will look like.  It certainly seems, anecdotally anyway, that patience with these restrictions is running out.  What impact that has on the SG policies, remains to be seen.  

That is only vague terminology if you haven't been following very closely.

Elimination is exactly what NZ are currently (and always have been) doing. Lockdown until cases low and no community transmission then relax restrictions, quarantine everyone on arrival, and lockdown again any time there is a case in the community.

It's obviously not sustainable long term which is why NZ are sticking to it for now, but plan on ditching the strategy once they are sufficiently protected by the vaccine.

Now either NS doesn't know this (unlikely), she is allowing herself to be poorly advised on what Scotland should be aiming for considering we have around ⅓ of the population already vaccinated, or she doesn't think the public are intelligent enough to be aware of NZ's exit strategy and can therefore continue to appear to "care more" than the reckless Tories until after the election.

The reality is she currently just looks like a child who, when told no to something from an adult, pretends not to hear it and carries on.

The opposition are useless, as they don't want to rock the boat ahead of May, and our journalists are far too busy generating clickbait stories about schools, football fans, and NS's haircut to bother asking why they think this is achieveable.

Edited March 10, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[Left Back]

16 minutes ago, madwullie said:

If you're talking about Whitty, they are howling for him to be sacked down south after his comments about the latest model.

what were his comments?

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, Left Back said:

what were his comments?

I assume the ones where he said an increase in cases was going to be ok as not very many people would end up very ill or dead.

Because people have lost all sense of perspective and having absolutely no covid deaths ever, whatever the cost, is the only thing acceptable to them.

[Honest_Man#1]

14 minutes ago, madwullie said:

If anyone finds a link to the actual model rather than just commentary could they post it please. These are the only assumptions I can find from a quick look. Would be interested to see what vaccine take up they fed in too. 

(taken from itv website) 

Again it needs the context around over what period these deaths would occur in, and even more critically, would that number of deaths overwhelm the NHS over that time period. If the answer to the second question is no, then it’s a much simpler decision.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Jan Vojáček said:

So the FM wants to see a situation where there are no cases of community transmission for three years, in a world where the CMO does not believe the virus can be eradicated?

Rustling so loud it could be heard from Holm Park.

Isle of man is a prime example, they've completely cut themselves off and not allowed people to enter or leave (except for nuggets on jet skis) for months now, however despite all these "measures" they are now experiencing their worst wave of infections since the pandemic began.

The bottom line is that this isolation strategy simply doesn't work and just boots the can down the road until a later date.

Once we're all vaccinated (only a few months from now), then that's really going to be as good as it gets and has to be the time when we accept we are living with this and as such reopen everything and get back to normal or as near to normal as possible.

The alternatives can't even be contemplated.........

Edited March 10, 2021 by WATTOO

[Left Back]

10 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

I assume the ones where he said an increase in cases was going to be ok as not very many people would end up very ill or dead.

Because people have lost all sense of perspective and having absolutely no covid deaths ever, whatever the cost, is the only thing acceptable to them.

I'd give him a knighthood for that.

[vikingTON]

2 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

That's the real issue - it's impossible to get S1 to S3 any longer because most modern schools just aren't big enough.

You can blame PPI for that - something that most political parties supported.

Why would PPP [sic] be responsible for schools being too small to enforce social distancing measures, when social distancing literally was not a thing before 2020? 

And speaking from memory of my old, now demolished and rebuilt high school, there would have been absolutely no fucking chance of enforcing social distancing anywhere in those buildings. You could get barely get two fatties to pass each other in the corridors without a snarl up and minor stampede. I'm sure that the modern build is more rational: not least to deal with disabilities. 

Edited March 10, 2021 by vikingTON

[Elixir]

Why are Scotland's advisers so incompetent and distant from the overwhelming scientific consensus? They are a total fringe.

Quote

It’s a beautiful dream but most scientists think it’s improbable. In January, Nature asked more than 100 immunologists, infectious-disease researchers and virologists working on the coronavirus whether it could be eradicated. Almost 90% of respondents think that the coronavirus will become endemic — meaning that it will continue to circulate in pockets of the global population for years to come.

The Scottish Government are quite literally showcasing that they are ignoring scientific reality by continuing to entertain this. They need held accountable for it urgently and that confirms they won't be getting my vote in May, for the first time in my life.

[super_carson]

39 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

That is only vague terminology if you haven't been following very closely.

Sorry, perhaps I didn't make my point clear in my original post.  I know elimination is what has been used in NZ, or the terminology at least.  But I meant she was being vague in refusing to commit to doing what NZ are, instead keeps using the phrase "very low level".   Does that mean 0, 5 cases a week or a month?  That's the type of vagueness I suspect might be deliberate as it allows for wiggle room.  

I don't disagree with you at all that a NZ model is completely impractical for Scotland, or that there is a significant degree of politicking.   

[Busta Nut]

I am sorry this has probably already been mentioned but why are we pandering to religious nuts and allowing them bigger gatherings? 

[Todd_is_God]

5 minutes ago, Busta Nut said:

I am sorry this has probably already been mentioned but why are we pandering to religious nuts and allowing them bigger gatherings? 

Easter etc is soon, as is an election.

[Elixir]

 

[Wee Bully]

I am sorry this has probably already been mentioned but why are we pandering to religious nuts and allowing them bigger gatherings? 

No, a day and a half after the announcement, you are literally the first person to mention it.

[Left Back]

2 minutes ago, Wee Bully said:

No, a day and a half after the announcement, you are literally the first person to mention it.

The rest of us were too busy praying to notice.

[Elixir]

Ding the fraud well and truly found out. What a reprehensible c**t. And of course, he has been praising Sridhar and her ilk.

 

[realmadrid]

The numbers in religious buildings were capped at 50 right up to 26th December and at that point were reduced to 20.

The other point with yesterday announcement is as of yet there is no change to the numbers that can attend a wedding or funeral , which I do find strange but maybe that will change if travel restrictions are lifted. 

[Big Fifer]

Do the people in Scottish government actually know the meaning of words? We're going for an elimination strategy (that's "Elimate - completely remove or get rid of (something)."). 

From the BBC:

"Chief Medical Officer Dr Gregor Smith said he did not believe coronavirus could be "eradicated", but said an elimination strategy of driving case numbers as low as possible would make outbreaks more manageable."

Do they understand the word eliminate? I go back to Witty's interview earlier in the week. If zero covid isn't zero covid, then what the f**k number is it? 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Why would PPP [sic] be responsible for schools being too small to enforce social distancing measures, when social distancing literally was not a thing before 2020? 
And speaking from memory of my old, now demolished and rebuilt high school, there would have been absolutely no fucking chance of enforcing social distancing anywhere in those buildings. You could get barely get two fatties to pass each other in the corridors without a snarl up and minor stampede. I'm sure that the modern build is more rational: not least to deal with disabilities. 

PFI I meant.

When we moved into our new build school in 2010 our rooms were 2/3 the size we had before.

Everything built to a minimum legal spec.

Rational does not come into it.

We also have social areas that can hold around a quarter of the school capacity - and that was without SD in place.

[madwullie]

1 hour ago, Honest_Man#1 said:

Again it needs the context around over what period these deaths would occur in, and even more critically, would that number of deaths overwhelm the NHS over that time period. If the answer to the second question is no, then it’s a much simpler decision.

He says both models show there will be a surge. Maybe not a lt first, he mentions late summer or perhaps into the winter, but definitely another wave in which the models say around that amount will die. His comments are really easy to find - it was to a select committee I think. He also strongly advises against any earlier than planned lifting of restrictions (meaning England's roadmap presumably) 

I'm less bothered about the comments, and more bothered about the models that led to them. It 100% depends on the assumptions that were fed in what comes out the other end. He can only really report what the models he commissioned showed, although I imagine he'll have had a lot of input as to the assumptions that fed them. 

I don't imagine it's likely that amount of deaths would overwhelm the nhs given we've just been through worse and survived. I do think it's pretty hopeful thinking that's the only factor now that would determine whether restrictions were in place though. Realistically, the nhs has been at risk for about, what, 8-12 weeks max in the last year, and all parts of the uk have been in various forms of lockdown far longer than that. 

Some of his comments are on video in this page. An MP questions him about the 30k given the amount vaccinated and he doesn't really answer it, although it looks like it might have been edited. 

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-03-09/modelling-predicts-new-covid-surge-with-significant-number-of-deaths-chris-whitty-reveals