Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Todd_is_God]

19 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The 25 miles doesn't include going up and down the waves and tidal flows etc. He couldn't go anything like £50 mph in rough weather.

True. But surely 6.25mph is equally ridiculous?

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

True. But surely 6.25mph is equally ridiculous?

If he hadn't been on one before and it was rough weather he was probably shitting himself. And he might not have gone in a straight line.

[Todd_is_God]

3 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

If he hadn't been on one before and it was rough weather he was probably shitting himself. And he might not have gone in a straight line.

Fair point

[RiG]

The British Medical Journal and the Health Service Journal have called for the reversal of the relaxation of COVID restrictions over the festive period.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/15/uk-medical-journals-call-for-christmas-covid-rules-to-be-reversed

[mizfit]

The British Medical Journal and the Health Service Journal have called for the reversal of the relaxation of COVID restrictions over the festive period.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/15/uk-medical-journals-call-for-christmas-covid-rules-to-be-reversed

We’re all going straight to tier 4 on the 28th to keep the sky botherers happy aren’t we?

[Gordon EF]

2 minutes ago, mizfit said:

 

We’re all going straight to tier 4 on the 28th to keep the sky botherers happy aren’t we?

 

I'd bet decent money the vast majority of folk who'd be having meltdowns over Christmas restrictions won't be particularly religious. It'd be an unholy trinity of god-botherers, slightly mental quasi-libertarians and facebook mummys. The facebook mummys would almost certainly be the biggest group.

[Distant Doonhamer]

Not that it matters, but I'm pretty sure the article I read suggested it was 4 and a half hours on the ski followed by a 15 mile walk.
What a desperate twat regardless. Def comes across as a bit needy to me

Certainly desperate for his hole. A festive period in jail should ensure that is achieved.

[renton]

21 minutes ago, mizfit said:

 

We’re all going straight to tier 4 on the 28th to keep the sky botherers happy aren’t we?

 

If the figures spend the rest of the week climbing I imagine we might end up there regardless of the Xmas mixing. Which is a really bad idea anyway.

[Binos]

Allowing people to go on foreign holidays in the summer was also a rash decision which cost many lives

They still did it

[Louis Litt]

I'll have a total head's gone if we all get punted into tier 4 because of the mixing rule. 

[Dons_1988]

31 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

I'd bet decent money the vast majority of folk who'd be having meltdowns over Christmas restrictions won't be particularly religious. It'd be an unholy trinity of god-botherers, slightly mental quasi-libertarians and facebook mummys. The facebook mummys would almost certainly be the biggest group.

Correct. My mother has been saying since March that no one will take her Xmas away from her. I don't have the heart to tell her the disdain I hold for this point of view.

[Gordon EF]

2 minutes ago, Dons_1988 said:

Correct. My mother has been saying since March that no one will take her Xmas away from her. I don't have the heart to tell her the disdain I hold for this point of view.

Similar here. It's the seeming opening of the flood gates in the lead up that gets me most.  We'll just come over to deliver christmas presents early, why not come over for lunch at the weekend? It's like folk think well if we get to do what we want for 5 days at christmas, why not just do what we want up until then as well?

[Paco]

The UK Government have absolutely no idea how many people have been vaccinated so far.

I’ve been thinking for a while now there’s going to have to be a pivot in the use of data, to help understand a) how many cases there are in the vaccinated groups and b) the severity of outcome. It would be tricky to do at a high-level, but it would also be optimal to look a bit more closely at the ‘deaths within 28 days of a positive test’ metric. If we think it’s still possible for people with the vaccine to contract the disease but not enough to get ill, we could still fool ourselves into thinking it’s ineffective when vaccinated 90 year olds are falling ill in general, showing a positive test since it’s routine to test in hospital, and then dying of something entirely unrelated. (Obviously that can happen now but becomes even more important moving forward).

None of that is particularly easy to do, particularly on a nationwide scale, and would be even harder to translate across media and social media. But it looks like we’ll fail on step 1. A basic mark on Mrs Smith’s records and a count of how many such marks exist across the country.

Unbelievable.

[renton]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/15/pre-existing-inequality-led-to-record-uk-covid-deaths-sir-michael-marmot-public-health-chief

Interesting report: http://www.instituteofhealthequity.org/resources-reports/build-back-fairer-the-covid-19-marmot-review/build-back-fairer-the-covid-19-marmot-review-executive-summary.pdf

 

Obviously the report covers England specifically, but you can see the same trends in Scotland:

 

In Scotland the bottom two SIMD quantiles make up 47% of total cases. 25% of all cases in most deprived areas, 22% in the next and then the top 3 quantiles make up 17% each, rough and tough. You can even see that through the tier 4 interventions it was the bottom two quantiles that showed the more dramatic drops in case numbers. You can also see that the top two quantiles are showing stalled but not increasing case loads. Weirdly it's the 2nd and 3rd quantiles showing the increases in case numbers, but then the first qauntile was still at a higher case load anyway.

What's interesting is that there is basically a minimum, baked in risk due to covid, but above a certain threshold that risk starts to rise fairly dramatically. That impact doesn't just stay in those quantiles though, as the increased case loads in lower quantiles increases the general risk of folk from higher quantiles getting it as well. Call it the right wing case for socialism - the final proof that we are all collectively linked, and that someone elses welfare can have an impact on yours. There is no doubt in my mind, that a healthier, more egalitarian society would be experiencing lower case loads and mortality than we currently are. You can talk about the impact of schools, hospitality, retail and  - yes, even nailbars - but for me class and deprivation is driving far higher case loads than we otherwise should be seeing.

There has to be massive, targetted public sector intervention to do more to remove inequalities that lead to worse educational and health outcomes. Otherwise nothing will ever change for the better.

Edited December 15, 2020 by renton

[renton]

3 minutes ago, Paco said:

The UK Government have absolutely no idea how many people have been vaccinated so far.
 

 

I’ve been thinking for a while now there’s going to have to be a pivot in the use of data, to help understand a) how many cases there are in the vaccinated groups and b) the severity of outcome. It would be tricky to do at a high-level, but it would also be optimal to look a bit more closely at the ‘deaths within 28 days of a positive test’ metric. If we think it’s still possible for people with the vaccine to contract the disease but not enough to get ill, we could still fool ourselves into thinking it’s ineffective when vaccinated 90 year olds are falling ill in general, showing a positive test since it’s routine to test in hospital, and then dying of something entirely unrelated. (Obviously that can happen now but becomes even more important moving forward).

None of that is particularly easy to do, particularly on a nationwide scale, and would be even harder to translate across media and social media. But it looks like we’ll fail on step 1. A basic mark on Mrs Smith’s records and a count of how many such marks exist across the country.

Unbelievable.

Think ScotGov has said from tomorrow they will be updating the stats weekly with a running total of vaccinations...

[The Moonster]

3 minutes ago, Paco said:

The UK Government have absolutely no idea how many people have been vaccinated so far.
 

 

I’ve been thinking for a while now there’s going to have to be a pivot in the use of data, to help understand a) how many cases there are in the vaccinated groups and b) the severity of outcome. It would be tricky to do at a high-level, but it would also be optimal to look a bit more closely at the ‘deaths within 28 days of a positive test’ metric. If we think it’s still possible for people with the vaccine to contract the disease but not enough to get ill, we could still fool ourselves into thinking it’s ineffective when vaccinated 90 year olds are falling ill in general, showing a positive test since it’s routine to test in hospital, and then dying of something entirely unrelated. (Obviously that can happen now but becomes even more important moving forward).

None of that is particularly easy to do, particularly on a nationwide scale, and would be even harder to translate across media and social media. But it looks like we’ll fail on step 1. A basic mark on Mrs Smith’s records and a count of how many such marks exist across the country.

Unbelievable.

 

It's beyond unbelievable. Give someone a vaccine, update their health record. What's fucking difficult?

[The Moonster]

1 minute ago, MixuFruit said:

Someone has to make a profit along the way in England remember. Can't be having a centralised repository of these data administered by the public sector.

Ah, of course, I'm sure one of Hancock/Rees-Mogg's relatives will see a healthy £22 billion land on their desk shortly to try and sort this mess out.

[Gordon EF]

Tory Government: "Hello gormless inbred upper class incompetent friend of my wife's cousin. Would you like £200 million to keep a record of everyone who's given the vaccine for the government?"

Gormless Inbred Upper Class Incompetent: "Yes please"

Tory Government: "How many people have been vaccinated?"

Gormless Inbred Upper Class Incompetent: "Spreadsheet broke"

Tory Government: "Haha, jolly good. Not to worry"

[Billy Jean King]

Similar here. It's the seeming opening of the flood gates in the lead up that gets me most.  We'll just come over to deliver christmas presents early, why not come over for lunch at the weekend? It's like folk think well if we get to do what we want for 5 days at christmas, why not just do what we want up until then as well?

Surprised all opposition parties are appearing to fall in line behind the Tories on this. Looks an open goal for Starmer to me.

[101]

37 minutes ago, The Moonster said:

It's beyond unbelievable. Give someone a vaccine, update their health record. What's fucking difficult?

Front runner for next PM imo