Aladdin Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Daily review. Overall cases per 100K for 7 days peaked at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan From 7th to 13th January we are at 232.8 Todays figure is for 8th Jan to14th Jan is 222.5 Another single Day drop of 4.42% and a drop from the peak of 26.30% If the R is 1.4 then I was the 1st man on Mars. Daily movement for all councils. Just look at all the drops. I really think with this progress the better behaving Eastern side of the country should stand a chance of going back in the tier system when they review. Clearly the usual suspects need left in Tier 4 at best. Stranraer looks like it needs eradicated from the planet. NB The UK figure for same dates is 558.2 per 100K or about 2.5 times higher than Scotland. Glasgow City 351.1 to 338.3 Regains it's usual top spot. Why does it perform so badly compared to Edinburgh ? North Lanarkshire 345.1 to 323.7 Inverclyde 347.0 to 309.8 Over 10% down and of the top spot Renfrewshire 304.9 to 302.6 Dumfries & Galloway 283.5 to 285.5 Stranraer West & Stranraer South both over 1000 North Ayrshire 282.0 to 281.3 East Dunbartonshire 289.0 to 272.5 East Ayrshire 264.7 to 270.5 South Lanarkshire 266.7 to 262.1 West Dunbartonshire 267.6 to 253.0 Clackmannanshire 246.4 to 242.5 Dundee City 262.5 to 242.4 Aberdeen City 245.3 to 241.0 Falkirk 224.4 to 225.6 South Ayrshire 222.0 to 225.6 Scottish Borders 189.6 to 185.3 Fife 193.5 to 180.4 Perth & Kinross 217.2 to 178.3 Down 17.91% East Renfrewshire 205.2 to 174.8 Down 14.81% Angus 181.6 to 167.8 Highlands 178.9 to 163.3 Invergordon over 1000 Aberdeenshire 167.7 to 148.9 Down 11.28% Stirling 131.6 to 148.6 West Lothian 156.2 to 144.2 City Of Edinburgh 159.3 to 144.0 Down 10% Moray 110.6 to 108.5 Midlothian 115.7 to 104.9 East Lothian 99.0 to 100.8 Western Isles 44.9 to 97.3 Shetland Islands 82.9 to 82.9 Argyll & Bute 81.5 to 82.7 Orkney Island 18.0 to 18.0Its going to be interesting to see what reasons come out for the higher rates seen in Glasgow v Edinburgh. Definitely a correlation between higher rates of deprivation and rates of the virus. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 I'm expecting NS to extend the lockdown until the end of February, regardless of what happens between now and the end of January. It's shite for those impacted (and I include myself in that), but if they are planning on having the most vulnerable get their first dose by mid-feb, and it takes around 3 weeks to be effective, then waiting that extra month will ensure those vaccinated are sufficiently protected. Many of us here have always said we could get behind the lockdown if the time was being used purposefully, and that would meet that criteria. A solid explanation of lockdown till 3 weeks after the last of the most vulnerable gets their first dose, then back to the routemap to work our way down the levels (reviewed weekly and applied properly) as hospitalisations etc continue to fall would be acceptable IMO. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Aladdin said: Its going to be interesting to see what reasons come out for the higher rates seen in Glasgow v Edinburgh. Definitely a correlation between higher rates of deprivation and rates of the virus. Maybe it's because the numbers are too low to be statistically significant but there doesn't seem to be any correlation in Inverness, Merkinch and Hilton usually hit all the greatest deprivation indicators. https://www.inverness-courier.co.uk/news/what-s-the-covid-infection-rate-where-you-live-225057/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superbigal Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said: 33 minutes ago, superbigal said: Daily review. Overall cases per 100K for 7 days peaked at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan From 7th to 13th January we are at 232.8 Todays figure is for 8th Jan to14th Jan is 222.5 Another single Day drop of 4.42% and a drop from the peak of 26.30% If the R is 1.4 then I was the 1st man on Mars. Daily movement for all councils. Just look at all the drops. I really think with this progress the better behaving Eastern side of the country should stand a chance of going back in the tier system when they review. Clearly the usual suspects need left in Tier 4 at best. Stranraer looks like it needs eradicated from the planet. Glasgow City 351.1 to 338.3 Regains it's usual top spot. Why does it perform so badly compared to Edinburgh ? North Lanarkshire 345.1 to 323.7 Inverclyde 347.0 to 309.8 Over 10% down and of the top spot Renfrewshire 304.9 to 302.6 Dumfries & Galloway 283.5 to 285.5 Stranraer West & Stranraer South both over 1000 North Ayrshire 282.0 to 281.3 East Dunbartonshire 289.0 to 272.5 East Ayrshire 264.7 to 270.5 South Lanarkshire 266.7 to 262.1 West Dunbartonshire 267.6 to 253.0 Clackmannanshire 246.4 to 242.5 Dundee City 262.5 to 242.4 Aberdeen City 245.3 to 241.0 Falkirk 224.4 to 225.6 South Ayrshire 222.0 to 225.6 Scottish Borders 189.6 to 185.3 Fife 193.5 to 180.4 Perth & Kinross 217.2 to 178.3 Down 17.91% East Renfrewshire 205.2 to 174.8 Down 14.81% Angus 181.6 to 167.8 Highlands 178.9 to 163.3 Invergordon over 1000 Aberdeenshire 167.7 to 148.9 Down 11.28% Stirling 131.6 to 148.6 West Lothian 156.2 to 144.2 City Of Edinburgh 159.3 to 144.0 Down 10% Moray 110.6 to 108.5 Midlothian 115.7 to 104.9 East Lothian 99.0 to 100.8 Western Isles 44.9 to 97.3 Shetland Islands 82.9 to 82.9 Argyll & Bute 81.5 to 82.7 Orkney Island 18.0 to 18.0 Are you going to start doing similar for hospital admissions, ICU numbers etc as those are a far better indicator to relaxing measures than new cases. Test positivity levels will have very little bearing while the pressure continues to grow on the NHS. All I would say on that point is infections have been dropping for about 10 days. If we assume hospital admissions are generally 7-10 days after confirmed infection then by default they should now start to drop. Deaths maybe another week to 10 days behind that. All just theory of course. The R rate is not well over 1 though. Edited January 17, 2021 by superbigal 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron Aldo Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 If we do go back to the tier system at the end of February (just as an example) then would people say its likely that the criteria for who goes into what tier should be changed from cases to hospital admissions.You'd hope and expect that the vaccine will have had some sort of impact by then. I'm sure the current criteria for tier 4 is 300 cases per 100k but that sort of becomes redundant if we reach a point where none (or very little) of those cases require hospital treatment. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mizfit Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 If we do go back to the tier system at the end of February (just as an example) then would people say its likely that the criteria for who goes into what tier should be changed from cases to hospital admissions.You'd hope and expect that the vaccine will have had some sort of impact by then. I'm sure the current criteria for tier 4 is 300 cases per 100k but that sort of becomes redundant if we reach a point where none (or very little) of those cases require hospital treatment.Any (temporary) return to tiers should take into consideration vaccinated portion of the local population and hospital numbers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Ron Aldo said: If we do go back to the tier system at the end of February (just as an example) then would people say its likely that the criteria for who goes into what tier should be changed from cases to hospital admissions. You'd hope and expect that the vaccine will have had some sort of impact by then. I'm sure the current criteria for tier 4 is 300 cases per 100k but that sort of becomes redundant if we reach a point where none (or very little) of those cases require hospital treatment. Very true. I wouldn't be holding my breath for that happening immediately, though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) Those who claim that we can't possibly tell how vaccinations will directly impact the course of the pandemic in future weeks will be fuming to discover that experts are doing, erm, just that: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/17/first-fruits-of-vaccine-rollout-should-be-seen-in-weeks-experts-predict Still, what would an organisation like the 'Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group' know about inferring future outcomes from relatively straightforward, causal relationships? Best to wait and see what happens instead! This is exactly the sort of modelling that governments should be plugging in to their plan on how and when to reduce restrictions. As the vaccination uptake changes then you simply adjust the expected outcomes as well, instead of reacting to the latest testing figures and then launching some back of a fag packet changes at a press briefing. Edited January 17, 2021 by vikingTON 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 I'm expecting NS to extend the lockdown until the end of February, regardless of what happens between now and the end of January. It's shite for those impacted (and I include myself in that), but if they are planning on having the most vulnerable get their first dose by mid-feb, and it takes around 3 weeks to be effective, then waiting that extra month will ensure those vaccinated are sufficiently protected. Many of us here have always said we could get behind the lockdown if the time was being used purposefully, and that would meet that criteria. A solid explanation of lockdown till 3 weeks after the last of the most vulnerable gets their first dose, then back to the routemap to work our way down the levels (reviewed weekly and applied properly) as hospitalisations etc continue to fall would be acceptable IMO.Raab today indicated it would be "March" before the UKG consider exiting "lockdown" such as it is and revisiting the tiers approach. The SG will not contemplate any move ahead of that bar possibly schools returning after the Feb holidays. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 If we do go back to the tier system at the end of February (just as an example) then would people say its likely that the criteria for who goes into what tier should be changed from cases to hospital admissions.That's never been the sole criteria. It's all been quite clearly explained on the gov.scot website for months.The five main criteria are:1. New case rate over previous seven days. 2. Percentage of tests positive over previous seven days.3. Forecast of new cases over next fourteen days.4. Current and projected percentage of hospital beds in use.5. Current and projected percentage of ICU beds in use. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Marvellous to see this new found faith in Covid modelling. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said: 54 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: I'm expecting NS to extend the lockdown until the end of February, regardless of what happens between now and the end of January. It's shite for those impacted (and I include myself in that), but if they are planning on having the most vulnerable get their first dose by mid-feb, and it takes around 3 weeks to be effective, then waiting that extra month will ensure those vaccinated are sufficiently protected. Many of us here have always said we could get behind the lockdown if the time was being used purposefully, and that would meet that criteria. A solid explanation of lockdown till 3 weeks after the last of the most vulnerable gets their first dose, then back to the routemap to work our way down the levels (reviewed weekly and applied properly) as hospitalisations etc continue to fall would be acceptable IMO. Raab today indicated it would be "March" before the UKG consider exiting "lockdown" such as it is and revisiting the tiers approach. The SG will not contemplate any move ahead of that bar possibly schools returning after the Feb holidays. Ah ok. Well there you go! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 hours ago, virginton said: old fatties Ffs! And you are one of the most ardent supporters of the supposed "adult conversation" I'm going to take a stab in the dark and say judging by you're comments we are getting the adult conversation we deserve. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, 101 said: Ffs! And you are one of the most ardent supporters of the supposed "adult conversation" I'm going to take a stab in the dark and say judging by you're comments we are getting the adult conversation we deserve. Would you prefer 'elderly and challenged by a buffet spread'? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, virginton said: Would you prefer 'elderly and challenged by a buffet spread'? Not all of the most vulnerable to this virus are old or fat. You're doing yourself a disservice dumbing it down that level. You'll be telling us the difference between shiny and non shiny wrapping paper next. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Wilson Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, virginton said: Would you prefer 'elderly and challenged by a buffet spread'? I prefer elderly and genetically disadvantaged. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
parsforlife Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Is there any where, without having to do it myself, that is tracking cases per hospitalisation? That would an interesting number to see the effectiveness of getting the vaccine to the right people. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, 101 said: Not all of the most vulnerable to this virus are old or fat. They are the overwhelming majority though. That's simply a fact that there's no point in dancing around. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Marvellous to see this new found faith in Covid modelling. 'Faith' doing as well in this blustering, simp claim as 'arbitrary' before. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said: I prefer elderly and genetically disadvantaged. Covid's just partial to big bones. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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