Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Left Back]

5 minutes ago, parsforlife said:

How about implementing  UBI?  Give people security to retrain and even create new economies  to replace the dying ones.

Before anyone has a pop these are not my arguments but the idealogical argument against UBI is it encourages people not to work.  Imagine the gammons that rage against johnny foreigners alleged benefits if there was a UBI that provided a reasonable lifestyle?

The new economies argument is probably more flawed.  New economies are likely to emerge with a heavy dependence on technology and automation so won’t provide the required numbers of jobs to replace those lost in dying industries.  There are some economic theories that use this as a lever to promote UBI as there may no longer be enough jobs to go round but others argue that’s a socialist utopia.

who knows which, if any, of the above are correct.  I’m not an economist so wouldn’t want to venture an opinion.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Paco said:

 

It depends on the success of the vaccine. By May half of the population will still be unvaccinated and discouraged from “needless” mixing. By December that should be very different. I’d hope they could at least have a shot at being open.



We’re now a long way from your initial point but Debenhams and Arcadia are businesses falling over. It’s a bloody tough break for the workers but when all restrictions are over, Debenhams and Arcadia won’t be there - other businesses will.

You can probably make a moral argument about paying everyone the same if they’re not allowed to work but it isn’t the way to get public buy-in to restrictions.

 

Yes, I do acknowledge that it's a difficult situation, as in the case of furlough, the Government are effectively ordering the closure so probably should be liable, it's just that it was initially supposed to be a short term solution and that's now proving way off the mark.

I just feel that a two tier state benefit society has been created and it seems strange that the Gov are willing to pay way above the national living wage in furlough money, yet way below this for job seekers allowance.

I also feel that it's unethical to expect the likes of supermarket workers to work a frontline 40 hour week for much less money than the Government are handing out to many on the furlough scheme for just lying around the house.

[Bairnardo]

My prediction is that the vaccines are going to kill this thing stone dead, with the governments clinging on to restrictions in the face of this until late spring into summer, at which point it will become clear that folk have begun doing whatever they want and restrictions will be rolled back in attempt to save face.

[Left Back]

1 minute ago, WATTOO said:

 

I also feel that it's unethical to expect the likes of supermarket workers to work a frontline 40 hour week for much less money than the Government are handing out to many on the furlough scheme for just lying around the house.

I agree this is unfair but how do you resolve it in the current circumstances?  Paying furloughed staff supermarket workers wages would result in families out on the street.  Supermarkets aren’t going to raise wages or they’d go out of business and the taxpayer isn’t going to fund wage rises for supermarket workers.

[Ron Aldo]

My prediction is that the vaccines are going to kill this thing stone dead, with the governments clinging on to restrictions in the face of this until late spring into summer, at which point it will become clear that folk have begun doing whatever they want and restrictions will be rolled back in attempt to save face.

You'd hope the first part is true but there's limits on what people can/can't do if for whatever reason the government decides to keep everything shut despite there being no obvious reason for doing so.

[Elixir]

41 minutes ago, Aladdin said:

I see Therese Coffey got herself in bother with Piers Morgan first thing today.

Whilst Im always happy to see a tory embarrass themselves, what she said is probably correct.  We have a high death rate because we are a nation of binge drinking, fried food eating oldies.  One of the reasons I thought it was important to try and keep gyms open as much as possible.

The pandemic should spark a campaign for lifestyle changes.  Scotland didnt earn its sickman of Europe tag for nothing and to just ignore the contribution this may have had to our susceptibility to the virus as "insulting to the public" does no good.

Due to the effects of the last 10 months, I also include myself in the fat unhealthy c**t category and will be doing something about it this year.

Good post. A third of the population are obese and a further third are overweight. Yet people apparently care about public health all of a sudden? Just another absurdity in this whole shit show. Will those figures change? Of course not.

2 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

My prediction is that the vaccines are going to kill this thing stone dead, with the governments clinging on to restrictions in the face of this until late spring into summer, at which point it will become clear that folk have begun doing whatever they want and restrictions will be rolled back in attempt to save face.

This is my hope too. Pandemics end socially in people's minds as well as from an epidemiological standpoint.

[Billy Jean King]

You'd hope the first part is true but there's limits on what people can/can't do if for whatever reason the government decides to keep everything shut despite there being no obvious reason for doing so.

Yip. This "the public will take matters into their own hands" line is ideological nonsense. What exactly are the public going to do if the very places they are desperate to go to still have to remain closed. Ultimately the authorities will decide not the public.

[Elixir]

8 minutes ago, Ron Aldo said:

12 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

My prediction is that the vaccines are going to kill this thing stone dead, with the governments clinging on to restrictions in the face of this until late spring into summer, at which point it will become clear that folk have begun doing whatever they want and restrictions will be rolled back in attempt to save face.

You'd hope the first part is true but there's limits on what people can/can't do if for whatever reason the government decides to keep everything shut despite there being no obvious reason for doing so.

How long would the majority of people put up with 'living' like this? I'm sorry but if this goes on beyond the summer, the possibility of half a million dead and overwhelmed health services will look the much more appealing option to me, tbh.

Granted, that should be irrelevant because of the vaccines.

[Michael W]

52 minutes ago, Aladdin said:

I see Therese Coffey got herself in bother with Piers Morgan first thing today.

Whilst Im always happy to see a tory embarrass themselves, what she said is probably correct.  We have a high death rate because we are a nation of binge drinking, fried food eating oldies.  One of the reasons I thought it was important to try and keep gyms open as much as possible.

The pandemic should spark a campaign for lifestyle changes.  Scotland didnt earn its sickman of Europe tag for nothing and to just ignore the contribution this may have had to our susceptibility to the virus as "insulting to the public" does no good.

Due to the effects of the last 10 months, I also include myself in the fat unhealthy c**t category and will be doing something about it this year.

It will prompt another round of sugar tax type levies on "unhealthy" food. Beyond that, probably nothing beyond a few public health campaigns. 

The answer, as it just about always is, will be to make people poorer. 

[Billy Jean King]

How long would the majority of people put up with 'living' like this? I'm sorry but if this goes on beyond the summer, the possibility of half a million dead and overwhelmed health services will look the much more appealing option to me, tbh.
Granted, that should be irrelevant because of the vaccines.

What do you expect the public will do to show their displeasure if the authorities don't roll back. You won't see riots on the streets in Scotland, not a chance. More likely a few petitions and more radio phone ins.

[ICTChris]

Chris Whitty talking about the vaccine dosage strategy during the briefing, pertinent to some other posts on here today.

 

 

[ICTChris]

5 minutes ago, Elixir said:

How long would the majority of people put up with 'living' like this?

What do you think will happen if the governments say that there will need to continue to be restrictions into the summer?  Do you think people will protest, riots in the street?  Will businesses just open, refuse to pay the fines?  Will there be political discord about it, will there be a party who slots into the anti-lockdown role - Farage's rebranded party are making noises in that direction I think.

I don't think any of that will happen to be honest.  

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, Left Back said:

I agree this is unfair but how do you resolve it in the current circumstances?  Paying furloughed staff supermarket workers wages would result in families out on the street.  Supermarkets aren’t going to raise wages or they’d go out of business and the taxpayer isn’t going to fund wage rises for supermarket workers.

I suppose the disgruntled supermarket worker could question why He or She as a taxpayer is subsidising the likes of a high earning events promoter who realistically may never have a job to return to ??

I'd probably go for the middle ground and offer anyone on furlough the equivalent monthly payment to the national minimum wage and then it would be up to the individual to decide on their own future and whether or not they need a career change ?

This may seem harsh, however it's also unfair for the state to be paying up to £30 k p/a when most in Scotland don't EARN anything like this sort of money.

[Ron Aldo]

10 minutes ago, Elixir said:

How long would the majority of people put up with 'living' like this? I'm sorry but if this goes on beyond the summer, the possibility of half a million dead and overwhelmed health services will look the much more appealing option to me, tbh.

Granted, that should be irrelevant because of the vaccines.

I don't disagree but I don't see how the public can have any real say. As @Billy Jean King says, people aren't going to riot or anything like that. It'll be much as it is now with people moaning on social media etc. but if the government want/see the need to keep restrictions then they will.

[Bairnardo]

23 minutes ago, Ron Aldo said:

27 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

My prediction is that the vaccines are going to kill this thing stone dead, with the governments clinging on to restrictions in the face of this until late spring into summer, at which point it will become clear that folk have begun doing whatever they want and restrictions will be rolled back in attempt to save face.

You'd hope the first part is true but there's limits on what people can/can't do if for whatever reason the government decides to keep everything shut despite there being no obvious reason for doing so.

I appreciate theres limits to it, but household mixing is one of the biggest interference in our lives and that will be the first and most visible to be ignored. 

The summer will be increasing numbers of house/garden/park gatherings until appropriate hospitality venues take their place. 

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

1 hour ago, Billy Jean King said:

WTF is going on in Care Homes in England. Those figures today are utterly scandalous given the stage we are at with the vaccine rollout.

Nicola Sturgeon's fault. 

[ICTChris]

Looking at the Travelling Tabby vaccine breakdown of England, only 7.2% of the population in London have had a first dose, far lower than any other area.  Next lowest is the South East with 10.3%!

Why is London so low?  Younger population so fewer eligible?  Focus on dealing with the brutal wave in their hospitals?

[Billy Jean King]

I don't disagree but I don't see how the public can have any real say. As [mention=29985]Billy Jean King[/mention] says, people aren't going to riot or anything like that. It'll be much as it is now with people moaning on social media etc. but if the government want/see the need to keep restrictions then they will.

I honestly think the apparent shift towards negativity since the vaccine rollout is squarely aimed at keeping compliance high until we reach a level that makes a serious impact on the vital statistics. At that stage we will see some loosening but if it requires 70-80% saturation to achieve herd immunity then that is going to take well into late summer. At that stage assuming the vaccines work as hoped then it needs to be how we live with it based on as little interruption to normal daily life as possible.

[Elixir]

13 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

18 minutes ago, Elixir said:

How long would the majority of people put up with 'living' like this? I'm sorry but if this goes on beyond the summer, the possibility of half a million dead and overwhelmed health services will look the much more appealing option to me, tbh.
Granted, that should be irrelevant because of the vaccines.

What do you expect the public will do to show their displeasure if the authorities don't roll back. You won't see riots on the streets in Scotland, not a chance. More likely a few petitions and more radio phone ins.

 

6 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

What do you think will happen if the governments say that there will need to continue to be restrictions into the summer?  Do you think people will protest, riots in the street?  Will businesses just open, refuse to pay the fines?  Will there be political discord about it, will there be a party who slots into the anti-lockdown role - Farage's rebranded party are making noises in that direction I think.

I don't think any of that will happen to be honest.  

 

5 minutes ago, Ron Aldo said:

I don't disagree but I don't see how the public can have any real say. As @Billy Jean King says, people aren't going to riot or anything like that. It'll be much as it is now with people moaning on social media etc. but if the government want/see the need to keep restrictions then they will.

 

Right now while we're in the worst stage of the pandemic, it's understandable. But once the vaccine is rolled out and deaths and hospitalisations return to normal levels? I'm not so sure. At that point businesses should also be able to go to court if restrictions aren't ended.

[djchapsticks]

6 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

13 minutes ago, Ron Aldo said:

I don't disagree but I don't see how the public can have any real say. As [mention=29985]Billy Jean King[/mention] says, people aren't going to riot or anything like that. It'll be much as it is now with people moaning on social media etc. but if the government want/see the need to keep restrictions then they will.

I honestly think the apparent shift towards negativity since the vaccine rollout is squarely aimed at keeping compliance high until we reach a level that makes a serious impact on the vital statistics. At that stage we will see some loosening but if it requires 70-80% saturation to achieve herd immunity then that is going to take well into late summer. At that stage assuming the vaccines work as hoped then it needs to be how we live with it based on as little interruption to normal daily life as possible.

This is it in a nutshell. 

Screaming from the rooftops that everything is now perfect and the vaccine is definitely going to end this would have people instantly clamouring to end restrictions. I'm really not surprised everything is being downplayed but I would like to see at least a modicum more optimism with regards to the medium to long term future. Even if that doesn't involve had timescales. People need to stay motivated that what's being done is correct but they also need reassurance that this is working and that it's coming to an end even if it is slowly.

However, as soon as these rates start falling at an accelerated pace and the vaccine uptake correlates with cases and hospitalisation falling, there has to be points set in the road where they are working on phased reopening of different sectors. We shouldn't be restricted for a minute longer than we need to be. 

Edited January 26, 2021 by djchapsticks