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Geopolitics in the 2020s.


dorlomin

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  • 2 weeks later...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/24/war-ukraine-food-riots-poor-countries-wto-ngozi-okonjo-iweala-food-prices-hunger

The last spike contributed to the Arab Spring uprisings and this one could make them look like a teddy bear's picnic by comparison. Throw in a couple of weather disasters and there could be serious political unrest. 

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Azerbaijan has launched a new offensive in Ngorno Karabakh, with Russia and Armenia accusing the Azeris of breaching the ceasefire lines. Up to three Armenian soldiers have been killed and a dozen wounded in the attacks, which follow weeks of Azeri soldiers refusing to slow the repair of gas pipes into the territory leaving thousands of Armenians without heating in a freezing winter.

It is very significant that Russia has accused Azerbaijan of breaching the ceasefire, Russian peacekeepers are supposed to be the guarantors of the agreement and are effectively the protectors of the remaining Armenians, between 25,000 and 100,000.

It doesn’t take a genius to link this to the war in Ukraine. Obviously the war is taking up the bulk of Russian military resources and one explanation for the escalation is that Aliyev thinks he can take advantage of this and secure the rest of the territory or at least force more Armenians out. It’s unclear if Azeri troops have attacked Russian peacekeepers, I think it would be highly unlikely. There have been one or two reports that Russia has pulled troops from Armenia itself to join the Ukraine war but I don’t think any actual peacekeepers have been pulled out.

Politically, Russia signed a co-operation agreement with Azerbaijan last month, Aliyev was in the Kremlin for talks the day of the invasion I think. It could be a risky move for a full escalation but perhaps they have calculated this makes Moscow more neutral and less pro Armenian. Another factor must be that tge losses suffered by the Russians in Ukraine and the sanctions mean they will be less able to provide military equipment to replace all that Armenia lost in the 2020 war.

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14 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Maybe NASA could start buying NK rocket engines now that Russia won't sell them anymore?

That'd be quite the turnaround in relations. 

Maybe wait (nervously) for a few dozen more successful flights though to make sure they've worked on reliability.

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Some confusing days over what's happening in Ngorno-Karabakh.  Azerbijan released quite a beligerent statement, contradicting what Russian peacekeepers had said and saying that the Armenian side were not keepting to the ceasefire agreement by refusing to disarm.  Russia then said that they were negotiating for Azeri withdrawal from the areas they'd moved their forces into and shortly afterwards announced the Azeri troops had left.  Armenia and Azerbijan then both released statements saying that Russia were wrong and Azeri troops had NOT left.

Today Russia are reinforcing their peacekeepers, with pictures published of tanks and armoured vehicles moving into the area.  Potential for escalation still very high.

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/30/south-korea-says-it-has-successfully-test-fired-its-first-solid-fuel-space-rocket

Things beginning to simmer again on the Korean peninsula, just as a more conservative South Korean leader takes power after the (clearly failed) attempts to win DPRK's co-operation by their predecessor. 

I wonder what the chances are of a 'f**k it' round of wars happening in different hotspots, while the focus of the major power blocs are fixated on Ukraine. Some of these frozen conflicts are quite frankly insoluble so choosing the most favorable timing to win becomes a serious temptation to leaders under these circumstances. 

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

Sri Lanka descending into violence, with pro and anti government mobs attacking each other. The Prime Minister has resigned and his home has been burned down by rioters. Several deaths, including an MP have been reported.

https://www.dnaindia.com/world/report-sri-lanka-crisis-nationwide-curfew-house-of-rajapaksas-set-ablaze-all-you-need-to-know-2951870

One of the causes of the unrest is the move to make Sri Lanka an all organic economy, which has lead to catastrophic food shortages and economic collapse.

 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/05/sri-lanka-organic-farming-crisis/
 

 

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