Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[Zetterlund]

22 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Hardly a liberal, he was more of an ethnonationalist than Putin before he took on anti-corruption and found Western admirers. One of his big things was Greater Russia to encompass every territory containing Russian speakers, and that non ethnic Russians should all be deported from the motherland. I actually suspected he and Putin were playing a Byzantine game, where Putin was setting Navalny up to be his successor, but that appears to have been a tinfoil hat moment on my part given the news. What I don't get is why he didn't just get the Chechens to blow him up or shoot him years ago as normal, instead of novachoking his y-fronts and allowing him to fly to Germany for treatment. And then allowing him to broadcast inflammatory messages from his prison cell and televising his court appearances.

Quite a good short piece here, whether he genuinely developed a more liberal vision as he grew older or just found it a more effective PR model to stir up support in pursuit of personal power, who knows?

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/17/world/europe/why-navalny-returned-to-russia.html 

Navalny is/was just a big psyop once the West took him under their wing. The novichok in the undies stunt is some of the most hilarious nonsense of the whole 'new Cold War' of the last decade. Spinning tales of secret agents deploying the deadliest toxin on Earth, which it turns out isn't very deadly, to peoples' boxer shorts and door handles is great for the rolling news cycle, but not so much for believability.

The MSM would have us believe Navalny was on the verge of bringing Putin's regime down, while in reality he barely had 2% support, and the fact that he was still making TV appearances as you say gives an indication of how much of a threat he was considered to be.

[Gibby82]

2 minutes ago, Zetterlund said:

Navalny is/was just a big psyop once the West took him under their wing. The novichok in the undies stunt is some of the most hilarious nonsense of the whole 'new Cold War' of the last decade. Spinning tales of secret agents deploying the deadliest toxin on Earth, which it turns out isn't very deadly, to peoples' boxer shorts and door handles is great for the rolling news cycle, but not so much for believability.

The MSM would have us believe Navalny was on the verge of bringing Putin's regime down, while in reality he barely had 2% support, and the fact that he was still making TV appearances as you say gives an indication of how much of a threat he was considered to be.

Wait, you're saying he wasn't poisoned? 

[sophia]

15 minutes ago, Zetterlund said:

Navalny is/was just a big psyop once the West took him under their wing. The novichok in the undies stunt is some of the most hilarious nonsense of the whole 'new Cold War' of the last decade. Spinning tales of secret agents deploying the deadliest toxin on Earth, which it turns out isn't very deadly, to peoples' boxer shorts and door handles is great for the rolling news cycle, but not so much for believability.

The MSM would have us believe Navalny was on the verge of bringing Putin's regime down, while in reality he barely had 2% support, and the fact that he was still making TV appearances as you say gives an indication of how much of a threat he was considered to be.

Are you claiming that Salisbury was not as generally accepted? 

If so, would you posit an opinion on what really happened? 

[welshbairn]

22 minutes ago, Zetterlund said:

Navalny is/was just a big psyop once the West took him under their wing. The novichok in the undies stunt is some of the most hilarious nonsense of the whole 'new Cold War' of the last decade. Spinning tales of secret agents deploying the deadliest toxin on Earth, which it turns out isn't very deadly, to peoples' boxer shorts and door handles is great for the rolling news cycle, but not so much for believability.

The MSM would have us believe Navalny was on the verge of bringing Putin's regime down, while in reality he barely had 2% support, and the fact that he was still making TV appearances as you say gives an indication of how much of a threat he was considered to be.

I believe the novichok in the undies story, Putin's inner child would love it, he seems to have a romantic sense of his old KGB days. Like Salisbury, Litvinenko, Yushchenko and others, the poisonings were meant to send a warning to others in the most dramatic way possible, and partly to humiliate the victims.

Edited February 17 by welshbairn

[Zetterlund]

56 minutes ago, Gibby82 said:

Wait, you're saying he wasn't poisoned? 

 

42 minutes ago, sophia said:

Are you claiming that Salisbury was not as generally accepted? 

If so, would you posit an opinion on what really happened? 

Some kind of poisonings obviously happened, but the novichok in underpants script is laughable. Firstly because we're told any contact with a tiny amount of the stuff would kill hundreds of people, but (nearly) everyone who touches it ends up fine. Then, in his pants, really? There are easier ways which are less fun in the news.

Nothing makes sense about the official Salisbury story. The only thing I'm pretty confident of is that version didn't happen. The 2 shady Russians were probably up to no good, but there are so many gaping holes in the story that plenty of others have covered.

[Freedom Farter]

6 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Hardly a liberal, he was more of an ethnonationalist than Putin before he took on anti-corruption and found Western admirers. One of his big things was Greater Russia to encompass every territory containing Russian speakers, and that non ethnic Russians should all be deported from the motherland. I actually suspected he and Putin were playing a Byzantine game, where Putin was setting Navalny up to be his successor, but that appears to have been a tinfoil hat moment on my part given the news. What I don't get is why he didn't just get the Chechens to blow him up or shoot him years ago as normal, instead of novachoking his y-fronts and allowing him to fly to Germany for treatment. And then allowing him to broadcast inflammatory messages from his prison cell and televising his court appearances.

Quite a good short piece here, whether he genuinely developed a more liberal vision as he grew older or just found it a more effective PR model to stir up support in pursuit of personal power, who knows?

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/17/world/europe/why-navalny-returned-to-russia.html 

I just lazily put "liberal" because I'd been reading media describing him as such. Your description is more accurate.

Regarding the Chechens, I remember they did this last year:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/04/attackers-break-russian-journalists-fingers-and-stab-human-rights-lawyer-in-chechnya

[sophia]

5 hours ago, Zetterlund said:

 

Some kind of poisonings obviously happened, but the novichok in underpants script is laughable. Firstly because we're told any contact with a tiny amount of the stuff would kill hundreds of people, but (nearly) everyone who touches it ends up fine. Then, in his pants, really? There are easier ways which are less fun in the news.

Nothing makes sense about the official Salisbury story. The only thing I'm pretty confident of is that version didn't happen. The 2 shady Russians were probably up to no good, but there are so many gaping holes in the story that plenty of others have covered.

Thanks for the reply. I'm genuinely interested in what your take on Salisbury is as I've heard nothing other than what was shared via mainstream media. Are you able to appraise and share an alternative take on the matter? 

[Zetterlund]

16 hours ago, sophia said:

Thanks for the reply. I'm genuinely interested in what your take on Salisbury is as I've heard nothing other than what was shared via mainstream media. Are you able to appraise and share an alternative take on the matter? 

It's been a while since I revisited it, but a few things off the top of my head from the official version of events which make no sense at all:

The 'novichok' perfume bottle which apparently killed Dawn Sturgess was said to be the one discarded by the Russians after applying it to the door handle. But Sturgess' partner said the bottle was new and wrapped in cellophane when he found it in a charity bin. 

The Skripals were of very different age, size and sex, yet somehow fell ill at exactly the same moment several hours after apparently touching the infected door handle.

The first person to come across the incapacitated Skripals and give them first aid just happened to be the chief nurse of the British Army (that one is a cracker).

Between touching the door handle and passing out hours later, the Skripals fed some ducks in a park, sharing bread with some kids, went for a pint, and had lunch in a pizza restaurant. No other people (or ducks) were affected by the nerve agent apparently all over their hands throughout this time.

There were lots of other things surrounding the events that were hugely coincidental or outright suspicious, such as the fact there was a military chemical weapons response exercise going on in Salisbury at the time, it was a few miles down the road from Porton Down, the UK's chemical weapons lab, there was a media blackout order put on mentioning certain names such as Sergei Skripal's M16 handler Pablo Miller, who happened to serve in the army with the BBC's Mark Urban who had been interviewing Skripal for months for a book (which strangely ended up being about the poisoning event, which hadn't yet happened during the interviews).

To sum up, I'm sure there were some sort of dodgy spy games going on and everyone on all sides was lying about everything. But 2 intelligence agents sent by Putin to kill a former spy by applying a nerve agent to his door handle almost certainly didn't happen.

[Parttimesupporter]

On 18/02/2024 at 12:11, Zetterlund said:

It's been a while since I revisited it, but a few things off the top of my head from the official version of events which make no sense at all:

The 'novichok' perfume bottle which apparently killed Dawn Sturgess was said to be the one discarded by the Russians after applying it to the door handle. But Sturgess' partner said the bottle was new and wrapped in cellophane when he found it in a charity bin. 

The Skripals were of very different age, size and sex, yet somehow fell ill at exactly the same moment several hours after apparently touching the infected door handle.

The first person to come across the incapacitated Skripals and give them first aid just happened to be the chief nurse of the British Army (that one is a cracker).

Between touching the door handle and passing out hours later, the Skripals fed some ducks in a park, sharing bread with some kids, went for a pint, and had lunch in a pizza restaurant. No other people (or ducks) were affected by the nerve agent apparently all over their hands throughout this time.

There were lots of other things surrounding the events that were hugely coincidental or outright suspicious, such as the fact there was a military chemical weapons response exercise going on in Salisbury at the time, it was a few miles down the road from Porton Down, the UK's chemical weapons lab, there was a media blackout order put on mentioning certain names such as Sergei Skripal's M16 handler Pablo Miller, who happened to serve in the army with the BBC's Mark Urban who had been interviewing Skripal for months for a book (which strangely ended up being about the poisoning event, which hadn't yet happened during the interviews).

To sum up, I'm sure there were some sort of dodgy spy games going on and everyone on all sides was lying about everything. But 2 intelligence agents sent by Putin to kill a former spy by applying a nerve agent to his door handle almost certainly didn't happen.

I geniunely have no axe to grind here, but do you have a source for this info?  Interesting stuff if true but the last few years have turned me into a (more) cynical old bugger.

[Freedom Farter]

Russian dissident Masha Gessen's take on some of the points discussed above: 

[welshbairn]

For those pretending to work:

The Death of Alexey Navalny, Putin’s Most Formidable Opponent The opposition leader, who died in prison, had been persecuted for years by the Russian state. He remained defiant, and consistently funny, to the very end. By Masha Gessen  February 16, 2024

[welshbairn]

[Zetterlund]

21 hours ago, Parttimesupporter said:

I geniunely have no axe to grind here, but do you have a source for this info?  Interesting stuff if true but the last few years have turned me into a (more) cynical old bugger.

I saved a lot of links at the time but most of them are broken. Here's one from the local police which covers some of the points. The unnamed 'off-duty army nurse' was named in other articles where her daughter got most of the credit.

https://www.polfed.org/wilts/news/2018/salisbury-poisoning-gloves-failed-to-shield-sergeant-from-novichok/

https://news.sky.com/story/revealed-teenage-girl-was-first-to-help-skripals-after-novichok-poisoning-11612909

[vikingTON]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/22/uk-firms-azerbaijan-armenians-nagorno-karabakh

Your handy reminder that annexing territory and expelling populations is only A Bad Thing to the UK government, when they can't see a way of making money from it. 

[Billy Jean King]

Classic example of the entrenched position in the UK yesterday with the right wing tabloids "outraged" (doesn't take much, daily occurrence) as police stood and watched "Islamists" project the "antisemitic" "from the river to the sea" onto a building in London. Police said no offence had been committed.

How far is this going to go. The argument being put forward is the phrase is pro Hamas and by definition therefore antisemitic. Some of these folk are deranged.

[DiegoDiego]

Just in case anyone's not noticed, Sudan is pretty fucked. 

[welshbairn]

11 hours ago, Billy Jean King said:

Classic example of the entrenched position in the UK yesterday with the right wing tabloids "outraged" (doesn't take much, daily occurrence) as police stood and watched "Islamists" project the "antisemitic" "from the river to the sea" onto a building in London. Police said no offence had been committed.

How far is this going to go. The argument being put forward is the phrase is pro Hamas and by definition therefore antisemitic. Some of these folk are deranged.

The nearly* exact same "from the river to the sea" line appears in the ruling Likud party's constitution, but in their case it's about exclusively Jewish rule. 

*It might say from the Mediterranean to the Jordan.

[VincentGuerin]

On 17/02/2024 at 13:42, Zetterlund said:

Then, in his pants, really? There are easier ways which are less fun in the news.

This is actually very much on-brand for the Russian security services.

A common theme among journalists and diplomats who have lived in Russia is their (the security services') enjoyment of weird sort of stuff like that.

Multiple reports of folk coming home from work to find someone has left a big shite in their toilet (or occasionally on their pillow), women finding their underwear laid around the flat, videos playing on the tv of the couple who live there having sex recorded on a hidden camera in their own flat, loads of stuff like that.

I've heard a few different journalists talking about this, but also a friend of my missus who had quite a junior role in the British Embassy in Moscow a few years ago. She laughs about it now and has some great stories about what she used to find in her flat. One day she was walking to work and was approached by some kind of diplomatic police figure who told her "I have watched you shit! Ha ha!!". She said she has no idea if this was true or not. No way to know.

They want people to know that they are always vulnerable, and to chuck in a bit of humiliation whenever possible.

She then went to Belarus and said it was exactly the same in that regard.

People can go round and round on whodunnit in terms of the poisoning and I do not claim to know. But the "in his pants, really?" bit would not be surprising at all.

Edited February 23 by VincentGuerin

[Mr Waldo]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

The nearly* exact same "from the river to the sea" line appears in the ruling Likud party's constitution, but in their case it's about exclusively Jewish rule. 

*It might say from the Mediterranean to the Jordan.

Yes. The extremists in Israel want a greater Israel that removes the Arabs from Gaza. From the river to the sea.

And extermists in Gaza want a Palastine that removes the Jews from Israel. From the river to the sea.

And yet, thousands, including folk on here,  still find it acceptable to chant and support this. Just shows their ignorance I suppose.

 

[welshbairn]

20 minutes ago, Mr Waldo said:

Yes. The extremists in Israel want a greater Israel that removes the Arabs from Gaza. From the river to the sea.

And extermists in Gaza want a Palastine that removes the Jews from Israel. From the river to the sea.

And yet, thousands, including folk on here,  still find it acceptable to chant and support this. Just shows their ignorance I suppose.

 

When most Palestinians talk about 'from the river to the sea' it's about the freedom to live in their recent ancestors lands, whatever their religion, it's not about exterminating the Jews. The reason ISIS are sworn enemies of Hamas is their refusal to disavow Palestinians Christians, although their attitude to Jews has certainly hardened. I don't think it's remotely antisemitic now to say that Israel's strategy is to force all Palestinians out of Gaza, and then to keep the apartheid system in the West Bank so repressive that they flee as well. The 2 state solution has been a fiction for decades.

 

 

Edited February 23 by welshbairn