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Geopolitics in the 2020s.


dorlomin

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Yascha Mounk's Twitter account isn't especially prominent but he writes for The Atlantic, a very influential outlet. He's a keen defender of both the current Israeli military actions as well as USA's backing of them. Folk have been criticising him for that and his tweet there is a riposte to them, he thinks he's highlighting a double standard in his critics with it. Except he's doing the opposite. He's strengthening his critics' argument because the root cause of that situation in Pakistan, like in Israel, is the same global militarism he supports.

Imran Khan was elected Prime Minister of Pakistan in 2018. An early pledge of his was to award citizenship to the 1.5M people born in Pakistan to Afghan refugee parents (another 200K have been born since then):

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/17/pakistan-imran-khan-citizenship-pledge-afghan-refugees

Why these people had always been denied citizenship by Pakistan is so they could continually be counted as refugees, thus ensuring as large a flow of humanitarian aid money into Pakistan as possible. Much of that money was then skimmed off by corrupt Pakistani officials. Over time and largely due to the War on Terror ending, that lucrative scam came to an end and the foreign aid money dried up. By which point the Afghan refugees had lost their utility to the Pakistani government so ruthless deportations of them began. That trend was expected to continue until Khan's election. He's of Pashtun heritage himself so is sympathetic to these people. In turn, they vote for him, making the military establishment in Pakistan even more angry he was blocking their deportation and trying to get them citizenship. As that Guardian article ominously points out: 

Screenshot2023-11-035_36_32PM.png.44e885d1b74c346cb5ea463daba44817.png

Well the military managed to overthrow Khan last year and jail him. They've since jailed, disappeared and tortured his remaining party members (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/03/pakistan-imran-khan-pti-military-crackdown). They didn't do all that due to the Afghan refugee issue, it was over completely unrelated disputes with Khan. A symptom of Khan's removal, though, is that the deportations of Afghans have started up again now. What's relevant here is how the military in Pakistan are so powerful in the first place that they're able to just overthrow a democratically-elected Prime Minister they want rid of. Pakistan is not now and never has been a thriving economy whose military has grown in line with that. Pakistan's military is so strong because USA sponsors it. The same US government Yascha Mounk is defending over Israel is also empowering the bad guys in Pakistan.

Mounk and his fellow Washington liberals encourage us to see the world in a way where nothing is ever connected to anything else. Gazan militants massacred, tortured and abducted Israeli civilians last month and our analysis of that must begin only from when it first appeared in the news cycle, no earlier. Similarly, we must believe that the deportation of Afghan refugees by Pakistan is an event which only began this week. It's only by keeping our understanding as shallow as possible that the Washington liberal worldview can hold up.

Edited by Freedom Farter
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8 hours ago, Suspect Device said:

The article mentions state-sanctioned misogyny in Iran. A 16 year old girl died just over a week ago, succumbing to injuries inflicted on her by police (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Armita_Geravand).

The murder of Sarah Everard shows that police killing young women isn't unique to Iran. Demonstrators were then wrongfully arrested at a vigil for Everard, showing police don't respond well to criticism here either. The comparisons end there, though. UK citizens get to elect our lawmakers. Iranians are stuck with a set of old, bearded arseholes creating their laws. That leaves deliberately breaking a bad law as one of the few options available to try and change it, which is what Armita Geravand was doing when she was killed. Media reporting of her killing was then censored by the state. Her family's funeral for her was heavily policed to make sure it didn't become a demonstration either against the state or in support of Kurdish identity (Geravand was Kurdish).

So what can be done to help Iranians? USA lifting its sanctions would be where to start. In nearly all cases, the effect of sanctions is to shore up domestic control for the sanctioned government. This is now well understood. Here's the abstract to a recent academic paper on how US sanctions hamper reform efforts in Iran:

Quote

Iran’s middle class appears to be on the slippery slope, switching from its dream of political reform to the reality of economic security. This development is imbued with uncertainties and unintended consequences, including reinforcing the authoritarian impulses of the ruling elites. U.S. sanctions on Iran have weakened the country’s middle class and, with that, have dramatically undercut the voices of political moderation and change. Putting political aspirations for reform on the backburner, Iran’s middle class seeks a viable path toward living a dignified life of self-sustenance amid a period of economic drought. While U.S. sanctions are not the direct cause of this political reorientation, they have contributed greatly to such submissive attitudes. This paper attempts to unlock the socio-economic and political dynamics of this trajectory in a country whose middle class once thrived on being an engine of change and moderation. While the campaign for political reform has faded away, its message is particularly germane as the country’s middle class struggles to make ends meet.

(https://www.insightturkey.com/articles/why-and-how-did-irans-reformist-movement-perish-understanding-the-implications-of-us-sanctions-policy).

Sanctions are used by USA to keep in place a government, designated baddies, in order to justify military spending. There's other reasons too but that's the main one. No baddies = no security fears = no way to make the public shit themselves about baddies and therefore consent to you giving their money to your pals in the arms industry.

When the global hegemon does that, two camps are created. The goodie camp and the baddie camp. Which brings us back to the UN. The UN can't wield the power of consensus for as long as the world is split into camps. Taking the above case of Armita Geravand as an example. Iran would just respond to human rights criticism there by saying US and its allies are only highlighting that case to encourage Kurdish separatism (which wouldn't be an unreasonable assumption).

So I see little hope of the UN establishing the necessary authority where it can pressure the likes of Iran over human rights abuses. Not without the power of consensus.

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On 06/11/2023 at 19:09, Freedom Farter said:

The article mentions state-sanctioned misogyny in Iran. A 16 year old girl died just over a week ago, succumbing to injuries inflicted on her by police (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Armita_Geravand).

The murder of Sarah Everard shows that police killing young women isn't unique to Iran. Demonstrators were then wrongfully arrested at a vigil for Everard, showing police don't respond well to criticism here either. The comparisons end there, though. UK citizens get to elect our lawmakers. Iranians are stuck with a set of old, bearded arseholes creating their laws. That leaves deliberately breaking a bad law as one of the few options available to try and change it, which is what Armita Geravand was doing when she was killed. Media reporting of her killing was then censored by the state. Her family's funeral for her was heavily policed to make sure it didn't become a demonstration either against the state or in support of Kurdish identity (Geravand was Kurdish).

So what can be done to help Iranians? USA lifting its sanctions would be where to start. In nearly all cases, the effect of sanctions is to shore up domestic control for the sanctioned government. This is now well understood. Here's the abstract to a recent academic paper on how US sanctions hamper reform efforts in Iran:

(https://www.insightturkey.com/articles/why-and-how-did-irans-reformist-movement-perish-understanding-the-implications-of-us-sanctions-policy).

Sanctions are used by USA to keep in place a government, designated baddies, in order to justify military spending. There's other reasons too but that's the main one. No baddies = no security fears = no way to make the public shit themselves about baddies and therefore consent to you giving their money to your pals in the arms industry.

When the global hegemon does that, two camps are created. The goodie camp and the baddie camp. Which brings us back to the UN. The UN can't wield the power of consensus for as long as the world is split into camps. Taking the above case of Armita Geravand as an example. Iran would just respond to human rights criticism there by saying US and its allies are only highlighting that case to encourage Kurdish separatism (which wouldn't be an unreasonable assumption).

So I see little hope of the UN establishing the necessary authority where it can pressure the likes of Iran over human rights abuses. Not without the power of consensus.

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4 hours ago, moses1924 said:

Some of the numbers in this story are mental Ethiopia PM Abiy Ahmed eyes Red Sea port, inflaming tensions - BBC News

"The Ethiopian army lost, by its own calculation, between 260,000 and 520,000 soldiers killed or missing in action"

It's remarkable how many Nobel Peace Prize winners end up being massive warmongers.

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5 hours ago, moses1924 said:

Some of the numbers in this story are mental Ethiopia PM Abiy Ahmed eyes Red Sea port, inflaming tensions - BBC News

"The Ethiopian army lost, by its own calculation, between 260,000 and 520,000 soldiers killed or missing in action"

Indeed. I was confused at the time by why Ethiopia didn't insist on retaining Assab when they conceded independence to Eritrea, a Red Sea port seemed pretty vital for their economy and no big deal to Eritrea, but they had lost 70,000 soldiers plus all the civilian casualties, so maybe just peace at all costs, and they had internal trouble to worry about. Now they've just lost up to half a million and Mr Ahmed wants to dig it up again? I read about what was going on with Tigray but had no idea how massive a war it was.

https://addisstandard.com/feature-a-population-of-150-million-cant-live-in-a-geographic-prison-pm-abiy-ahmed/

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 09/09/2023 at 15:15, Zetterlund said:

Argentinian presidential frontrunner Javier Milei appears to be simultaneously a lot of fun and a dangerous madman,

 

On 09/09/2023 at 17:38, welshbairn said:

 

On 23/10/2023 at 18:08, Freedom Farter said:

Javier Milei lost yesterday to the Peronist candidate but there's still a final run-off between them to come. He said this in his defeat speech: "All countries that embrace the ideas of liberalism progress while those who follow populist ideas unite in misery".

Quite funny, trying to present himself as the sensible choice.


He's won :lol: :o :unsure:...

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Exactly what they don't need but when things are bad folk often vote to make it worse. Either unwittingly or due to a sort of cynicism born out of helplessness - "if things are going down the pan anyway then I want to be the one who pulls the flusher".

Edited by Freedom Farter
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