GordonS Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said: That figure on Obamacare is interesting 52% to 42% want to keep it. They must be bricking it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said: That figure on Obamacare is interesting 52% to 42% want to keep it. As opposed to what? Expansion or scrapping? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said: That figure on Obamacare is interesting 52% to 42% want to keep it. What channel are you watching? ABC are going big on BLM, good stuff but not many election updates. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, welshbairn said: What channel are you watching? ABC are going big on BLM, good stuff but not many election updates. Yeah, anyone got advice on the best channel to watch? I've plumped for Sky just now but it's not exactly my favourite. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralstonite Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 The best forecast IMHO, is the bookies. I would imagine they will have the latest info. That said, any good websites to check the odds in real time? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 As opposed to what? Expansion or scrapping?Scrapping it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said: I bet Don Jr fucking hates Ivanka. Edited November 3, 2020 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 What channel are you watching? ABC are going big on BLM, good stuff but not many election updates.CNN 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, Ralstonite said: The best forecast IMHO, is the bookies. I would imagine they will have the latest info. That said, any good websites to check the odds in real time? Oddschecker but the bookies odds are shite, whoever you think will win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 The bookies had Remain at 1/4 the night before the referendum 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 The bookies had Remain at 1/4 the night before the referendumI think it's more looking for odds shifting - that did happen in the EU referendum - after the first results started to come in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, NotThePars said: The bookies had Remain at 1/4 the night before the referendum I bought enough holiday euros for about 3 years just after midnight. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ralstonite said: The best forecast IMHO, is the bookies. I would imagine they will have the latest info. That said, any good websites to check the odds in real time? There's no actual evidence to support that theory. The purpose of the bookies is to take as much money off you as possible, not to guess what the result will be. According to the odds the chances of a Trump win are 1 in 3, and there's no conceivable way of drawing that from the evidence. The odds are driven less by the likely outcome than by the money being placed and the odds they think they need to offer to draw in customers and come out ahead. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, NotThePars said: The bookies had Remain at 1/4 the night before the referendum I thought Remain would win but I thought it would be close. One bookie was offering 3/1 and trebling it as a new offer, so I stuck a tenner on. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, GordonS said: There's no actual evidence to support that theory. The purpose of the bookies is to take as much money off you as possible, not to guess what the result will be. According to the odds the chances of a Trump win are 1 in 3, and there's no conceivable way of drawing that from the evidence. The odds are driven less by the likely outcome than by the money being placed and the odds they think they need to offer to draw in customers and come out ahead. Quite. Bookies don’t know more than political scientists. 538 is now the industry standard, and I’d imagine most bookies base their odds from that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanFan Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Popular vote: Biden 49.8-47.5 Electoral college: Who freaking knows? Florida, as always, and Pennsylvania are the states to watch. Anyone predicting Texas to go Biden will be far off, imo. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, GordonS said: There's no actual evidence to support that theory. The purpose of the bookies is to take as much money off you as possible, not to guess what the result will be. According to the odds the chances of a Trump win are 1 in 3, and there's no conceivable way of drawing that from the evidence. The odds are driven less by the likely outcome than by the money being placed and the odds they think they need to offer to draw in customers and come out ahead. That's why I went big on Biden at 4/6. According to 538 it should be more like 1/9. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralstonite Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, GordonS said: There's no actual evidence to support that theory. The purpose of the bookies is to take as much money off you as possible, not to guess what the result will be. According to the odds the chances of a Trump win are 1 in 3, and there's no conceivable way of drawing that from the evidence. The odds are driven less by the likely outcome than by the money being placed and the odds they think they need to offer to draw in customers and come out ahead. If that really was the case, surely there would be a huge disparity in the odds - especially in different nations. My understanding is they have analysts who're constantly assessing the info as it comes in. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Watching CNN - pretty clear that if Trump loses Michigan and Wisconsin then he can't afford to lose another state like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona or Florida.He focused so much on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin - maybe has taken his eye off the ball in the other states? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Oof. Alan Dershowitz being hauled out as an expert on Radio 4 right now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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