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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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Just now, Paco said:

Biden takes one vote from Nebraska, Trump gets four. Trump took all five in 2016. Finally, a flip!

Trump speaking very soon. Anything could happen.

Wouldn't surprise me to see him come on stage and speak directly to the proud boys

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Guest Bob Mahelp
Just now, Jambomo said:

I wonder what Trump is going to say, this should be good. 

He's leading at the moment in most of the undeclared states (only because the large population areas haven't finished counting), so I'd  imagine that he'll declare victory and say that if he doesn't win it'll be because of fraud and cheating. 

He'll set the ground work for legal challenges if/when he narrowly loses.

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I don't understand how you can dismiss the margin of error. That's how maths works. The worst state appears to be Florida. Take the pollsters rated A by 538; in the last 9 polls they average Biden 49.7, Trump 46.4. It looks like the result will be Biden 48, Trump 51. So Biden's result is 1.7 out, well within the margin of error. Trump's is 4.6 out, so pretty bad but not mental for a state poll.
Folk expect polls to be more accurate than they are or they claim to be.
2108627224_Screenshot2020-11-04at06_29_39.thumb.png.a085fbc0e2ded6a16887bcab58642621.png
PA had counted less than a quarter of mail-in votes before they stopped last night.
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5 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

CNN laying it on too thick now.

I don't see any serious likelihood of counting being halted in any of the close states.

I don’t think so either but I don’t blame them for fearing that it could, anything could happen these days. 

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