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State of the group


Donathan

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1 minute ago, ropy said:

Are we the weakest team in contention for the play offs?  Is the seeding all about a home tie rather than the chance of getting a diddy country?

I would say a home semi final would be the main advantage. There shouldn't be too much of a gulf in quality between teams who've finished 2nd in each group whether they are seeded or not.

 

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5 minutes ago, ropy said:

Are we the weakest team in contention for the play offs?  Is the seeding all about a home tie rather than the chance of getting a diddy country?

I don't think many teams will be scared of us, but then we shouldn't be scared of most of them.

There's unlikely to be any giants (though Spain have plenty work to do) and a lot of Tier 2 teams at a similar level.

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The crux of it is that Ukraine and Romania can’t catch us, they’ll be unseeded along with the 2 nations league winners.

That leaves 2 more countries that can end up unseeded.

Norway and Czech Republic are below us currently but are likely to both pick us 3 points each in their games against Latvia and Belarus, if we lose to Denmark this would likely take them above us on goal difference. Although the Czechs could still lose 2nd place if Wales pick up anything against Belgium (that would put them on 15 pts).

Poland are also 3 behind us but with a superior goal difference and Andorra & Hungary to play that leaves them likely to overtake us.

Croatia and Spain are behind also but they’re both likely to overtake Russia & Sweden in their own groups to win them. Assuming Russia beat Cyprus they’d be on 16 and Sweden are already on 16 with Georgia to play.

If we lose to Denmark it’s very unlikely we’ll be seeded, a point should take us above Norway and the Czechs.

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11 minutes ago, Les Cabbage said:

The crux of it is that Ukraine and Romania can’t catch us, they’ll be unseeded along with the 2 nations league winners.

That leaves 2 more countries that can end up unseeded.

Norway and Czech Republic are below us currently but are likely to both pick us 3 points each in their games against Latvia and Belarus, if we lose to Denmark this would likely take them above us on goal difference. Although the Czechs could still lose 2nd place if Wales pick up anything against Belgium (that would put them on 15 pts).

Poland are also 3 behind us but with a superior goal difference and Andorra & Hungary to play that leaves them likely to overtake us.

Croatia and Spain are behind also but they’re both likely to overtake Russia & Sweden in their own groups to win them. Assuming Russia beat Cyprus they’d be on 16 and Sweden are already on 16 with Georgia to play.

If we lose to Denmark it’s very unlikely we’ll be seeded, a point should take us above Norway and the Czechs.

This was shared ahead of the result last night (hence we can't finish on 13).  I suspect the odds on 14 points have shortened further, as it does look like someone will be seeded on 14, but with substantially better goal difference than us.

The Moldova game is almost irrelevant for seeding, but it *could* impact on us finishing second.

The long and short of it is that we need something from the Denmark game.  Playing a cagey match might not be a bad idea, given its relative immediate value, and the preparation of potentially needing to something similar away (either first or second game) to a decent nation.

image.png.0826a7383c11c4a0aaf9ec7753320a4f.png

Edited by HuttonDressedAsLahm
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19 minutes ago, HuttonDressedAsLahm said:

This was shared ahead of the result last night (hence we can't finish on 13).  I suspect the odds on 14 points have shortened further, as it does look like someone will be seeded on 14, but with substantially better goal difference than us.

The Moldova game is almost irrelevant for seeding, but it *could* impact on us finishing second.

The long and short of it is that we need something from the Denmark game.  Playing a cagey match might not be a bad idea, given its relative immediate value, and the preparation of potentially needing to something similar away (either first or second game) to a decent nation.

image.png.0826a7383c11c4a0aaf9ec7753320a4f.png

0-0 v Denmark are only hope then

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18 minutes ago, HuttonDressedAsLahm said:

This was shared ahead of the result last night (hence we can't finish on 13).  I suspect the odds on 14 points have shortened further, as it does look like someone will be seeded on 14, but with substantially better goal difference than us.

The Moldova game is almost irrelevant for seeding, but it *could* impact on us finishing second.

The long and short of it is that we need something from the Denmark game.  Playing a cagey match might not be a bad idea, given its relative immediate value, and the preparation of potentially needing to something similar away (either first or second game) to a decent nation.

image.png.0826a7383c11c4a0aaf9ec7753320a4f.png

There is also the possibility that us losing to Moldova leads to them finishing above the Faroe Islands which would be an absolute disaster for seeding purposes.

 

Moldova beat us 1-0 and lose 1-0 to Austria whilst the Faroes suffer 4-0 defeats in both Denmark and Israel would have Moldova 5th and our 6 points against the Faroes scrapped and replaced by only 3 against Moldova. Disaster.

 

I think a point will probably be enough to finish second because I don’t see Israel winning in Austria (although we shouldn’t count our chickens because Israel are an up and coming team whereas Austria are a descending team) but a defeat in Moldova would be a disaster for many reasons. 

 

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34 minutes ago, Donathan said:

There is also the possibility that us losing to Moldova leads to them finishing above the Faroe Islands which would be an absolute disaster for seeding purposes.

 

Moldova beat us 1-0 and lose 1-0 to Austria whilst the Faroes suffer 4-0 defeats in both Denmark and Israel would have Moldova 5th and our 6 points against the Faroes scrapped and replaced by only 3 against Moldova. Disaster.

 

I think a point will probably be enough to finish second because I don’t see Israel winning in Austria (although we shouldn’t count our chickens because Israel are an up and coming team whereas Austria are a descending team) but a defeat in Moldova would be a disaster for many reasons. 

 

That thought went through my head last night. 

The Moldova game could effect the seeding as well as the chance of qualification.

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