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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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10 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Take the tinfoil off for a bit, lad. There's no "Oligarchs" or yanks fighting in Ukraine. The people are saying, in the clearest and most emphatic way possible that they're not having this.

Aye Ukraine is an anarchist paradise right enough. 

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19 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Aye Ukraine is an anarchist paradise right enough. 

With insightful and relevant responses like the above, I simply cannot understand how P&B's general opinion is that you're a paranoid simpleton. I simply cannot. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oh, wait..

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The fact that you @WhiteRoseKillie believe that ordinary Ukranians have more of a say than Oligarchs and the USA government is a sign of complete idiocy and delusion.

Forgetting all the evidence of US influence and the role of Kolomoisky how do you explain the Ukranian public having the agency to choose to fight a war when in the UK the public has no control over anything?

Edited by Detournement
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7 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

This French ex military officer and historian publishes a daily thread, I find it really interesting. 

 

Does this not contradict the Washington think tank you posted earlier. 

If Russia takes Odessa, Dnipro and Kharkiv on top of Mariupol and Kherson then they will have all the territory Putin identified as being historically Russian on the map they published shortly before the invasion. 

Edited by Detournement
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7 minutes ago, Detournement said:

how do you explain the Ukranian public having the agency to choose to fight a war when in the UK the public has no control over anything?

If I could step in here...

Might it have something to do with the war that the Ukrainian public have some degree of agency over is actually happening where they live, not thousands of miles away?

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1 minute ago, Gordon EF said:

If I could step in here...

Might it have something to do with the war that the Ukrainian public have some degree of agency over is actually happening where they live, not thousands of miles away?

I mean we have no control over anything which happens in the UK.

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4 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Does this not contradict the Washington think tank you posted earlier. 

If Russia takes Odessa, Dnipro and Kharkiv on top of Mariupol and Kherson then they will have all the territory Putin identified as being historically Russian on the map they published shortly before the invasion. 

I think Goya is saying something similar to what the Institute of War are saying.  The initial invasion was supposed to rapidly seize several population centres - Kyiv, Kharkiv being the big two - and overthrow the government.  That has failed and they are likely to move to attacking a single goal at a time.  Mariupol is likely to fall, it's down to 5km or so but then it seems like Russian forces will need to stiffen up and focus on a single goal, one after the other.  Russian troops around Kyiv seem to be solidifying their positions which indicates they might be settling in for a long conflict.

It's also a giant 'if' to say if Russia can take Odessa, Dnipro and Kharkiv.  These are three huge cities, the three biggest in Ukraine after Kyiv.  Russian troops aren't anywhere near Odessa or Dnipro and seem to have paused trying to capture Kharkiv.

It could be that Russia will, to some degree, decide to sit tight and see if their position can extract more concessions in negotiations.  Assuming that the Ukrainians don't have the forces to counter attack effectively this would allow resupply etc.  Who really knows though.  The negotiations might not produce anything of note.

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2 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

I think Goya is saying something similar to what the Institute of War are saying.  The initial invasion was supposed to rapidly seize several population centres - Kyiv, Kharkiv being the big two - and overthrow the government. 

Is there any evidence for this?

Given the relative sizes of the Ukranian military and the Russian invasion force it seems unlikely.

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Just now, Detournement said:

Is there any evidence for this?

Given the relative sizes of the Ukranian military and the Russian invasion force it seems unlikely.

The 40 mile convoy heading south towards Kiev from Belarus was a bit of a clue.

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1 minute ago, Detournement said:

Is there any evidence for this?

Given the relative sizes of the Ukranian military and the Russian invasion force it seems unlikely.

Sadly the Russian MoD haven't published their war plans to confirm.  But the plan of sending airborne troops to capture air bases around the city with columns following into Kyiv seems to bear that out.  

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Russian YouTuber NFKRZ has moved to Georgia.

 

Apparently there are hundreds of thousands of Russians who have moved to Georgia and Armenia, it will be interesting to see the impact this will have.

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10 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Sadly the Russian MoD haven't published their war plans to confirm.  But the plan of sending airborne troops to capture air bases around the city with columns following into Kyiv seems to bear that out.  

Capturing the air bases make sense. Attempting to take 5 or 6 large cities simultaneously while outnumbered 3 or 4 to 1 doesn't. 

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