LongTimeLurker Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 Also lots of talk at the moment from normally sensible information outlets (i.e. not the likes of tpyxa news that are often for light entertainment purposes only) of the Russians leaving Svatove in Luhansk oblast: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 (edited) Russia has launched precision strikes on several power stations, one in Kharkiv. I’m *sure* there is a great military need to cut the power for Kharkiv and it’s not simply ‘revenge’ for the crushing defeat. Edited September 11, 2022 by ICTChris 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 Russia targeting power generation and water supply. Its an escalation. Its also more petulant than effective. Seems they do not have any valuable military targets they can hit right now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 44 minutes ago, dorlomin said: Russia targeting power generation and water supply. Its an escalation. Its also more petulant than effective. Seems they do not have any valuable military targets they can hit right now. Looks like they're listening to the hardliners, like this guy. When the West invade countries they always start with targeting civilian infrastructure like power stations and transport links, lumping them in with command and control for press statements. I'm a bit surprised the Russians haven't done more of that, the targeting in places like Odessa and Kiev has seemed a bit random and ineffective. Quote A special military operation (SVO) must be made anti-terrorist, former member of the commission on biological weapons, military expert Igor Nikulin, said on September 11 in an interview with Izvestia. “It's time for the NWO to rename the anti-terrorist operation. We are fighting a terrorist fascist regime in Ukraine. They fire at civilians, they shoot at the ZNPP, although this threatens a nuclear catastrophe for the whole of Europe,” he said. In addition, Nikulin recalled that Ukrainian militants are also attacks committing provocations and terrorist on the territory of the Russian Federation - just remember the murder of political scientist Daria Dugina, he pointed out. Nikulin added that he sees the need for constant symmetrical responses to the shelling of territories liberated by the RF Armed Forces or the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics (LDNR). “I believe that for each arrival in the DPR, LPR or liberated territories there should be an arrival in Kyiv, Lvov, Vinnitsa, etc. Wherever a wolf's lair is found, everywhere it is necessary to hollow. It is necessary as Israel has been fighting terrorists for 70 years. There is experience, we must take it into service,” the expert said. He also noted that it is necessary to destroy the supply lines of the armed forces of Ukraine (AFU). “The Americans are delivering HIMARS missiles by rail... Why do they still have roads?” the expert stressed. Nikulin added that instead of releasing captured Ukrainian soldiers, it is necessary to send them to work on the restoration of Donbass. “The prisoners are not to be released anywhere third - they are taken prisoner for the time, they return home, they are again mobilized. They are needed for corrective work, let them restore everything that was destroyed, ”the expert concluded. Earlier on September 11, military expert Yuriy Knutov said that Kiev continues to strike at the peaceful cities of Donbass and territories controlled by the Russian Federation in order to demonstrate alleged successes to the West and achieve an increase in military assistance. On the same day, in an interview with Izvestia, political scientist Bohdan Bezpalko called for a powerful response to the shelling of civilians by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to Bezpalko, Ukraine should not be able to carry out logistics, supplies and supply of fuel and electricity. Russia has been conducting a special operation to protect Donbass since February 24 . Its key goals are the denazification and demilitarization of the Kyiv regime. Moscow emphasized that with the help of a special operation , Russia was stopping the war that Kiev had waged for eight years against the civilian population of the republics. https://iz-ru.translate.goog/1393867/2022-09-11/voennyi-ekspert-predlozhil-zhestko-otvechat-na-provokatcii-vsu?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=op,sc 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 Power grids are enormous machines. Arguably the biggest machine in every country. But that are designed by nature to be redundant. A portion of your power stations will be down for maintenance at any one time and there will be "spinning reserves" ready to turn into power generators and take up the slack of a failed generator. You will also have load followers that will exist to turn on and off for a few hours of peak power a day and base load power aimed at running all day and night. Morals aside, if you are going to hit a power grid you have to hit it hard and sustained to have an impact. Ukraine is not the UK, it is very poor so it likely lacks much of the resilience and redundancy of a western grid. But it will still have lots of redundancy in it. Every day we see ammunition stores burning from HIMARS and Excalibur hits, we see downed bridges and sometimes command posts taken out. If Russia had the capacity to take those out they would. They are currently experiencing tactical and operational level reversals of a very serious magnitude. They likely have a ticking clock of months of operational capacity left. Turning the lights off in Kharkiv for a few hours is not going to change that. Its petulant. This is like the V2 attacks on London. It sucks. But its not effective. How much money a week do you think it would take to hire HGVs to replace the rail capacity of Ukraine if it were really taken out? How much would it take to bring in HGVs from all over Europe to do the lifting of the rail network if Berlin, London and Washington opened the cheque book and said: Lets start hiring HGVs? If they could burn HIMARs stocks they would. If they could burn 155mm stocks they would. If they could destroy tanks they would. V2 2.0. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 21 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Looks like they're listening to the hardliners, like this guy. When the West invade countries they always start with targeting civilian infrastructure like power stations and transport links, lumping them in with command and control for press statements. I'm a bit surprised the Russians haven't done more of that, the targeting in places like Odessa and Kiev has seemed a bit random and ineffective. https://iz-ru.translate.goog/1393867/2022-09-11/voennyi-ekspert-predlozhil-zhestko-otvechat-na-provokatcii-vsu?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=op,sc The point being missed by the hardline Russians is that with the Ukrainian forces now back to the Russian/Ukraine prewar border in the north, it would be relatively simple to knock out a number of Russian power stations, railway lines, etc with minimal civilian casualties. I think a simple message from Ukrainian leadership to Russian leadership on their willingness to match the Russian strikes with similar strikes inside Russia would not be inappropriate right now. While there would be immense fury within the Russian leadership, there is also a pragmatic understanding that war is war, and it is not an unreasonable response if they keep lobbing semi-guided weapons at Ukraine. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 Why the Moskva was sunk - https://9gag.com/gag/aXnZRgP 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said: Why the Moskva was sunk - https://9gag.com/gag/aXnZRgP wid 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clown Job Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 It’s a shame we are having a news blackout this week 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 (edited) Andriy Melnyk was recalled to Kyiv recently: https://newsrnd.com/news/2022-08-22-andriy-melnyk--recalled-ukrainian-ambassador-leaves-germany-on-october-14.SkfDa5tlJj.html But does appear to still be the ambassador at this point. Edited September 12, 2022 by LongTimeLurker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theroadlesstravelled Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 What's "epic mintering" in Russian. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 There are a couple of good podcasts on the Kharkiv counter offensive by Dmitri Alperovitch. First one with a Ukrainian reserve colonel Sergii Grabskyi. https://podcast.silverado.org/episodes/like-ants-to-wet-sugar-how-ukraine-won-the-battle-of-kharkiv-t1YYUr8n There is also one with Michael Kofman, who is an analyst on the Russian military with a US based think tank. https://podcast.silverado.org/episodes/russian-northern-front-collapse-latest-on-ukrainian-counteroffensive 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 Whether or not the Ukrainians are advancing into northern Luhansk oblast is probably the thing to keep an eye on today along with Snihurivka in Kherson oblast: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 11 hours ago, Newbornbairn said: The German guy is an academic rather than a politician by the way. He thought the Ukrainian leadership should have ran away and set up a government in exile in Berlin. https://www.rnd.de/politik/russland-ukraine-krieg-experte-schlaegt-ukrainische-exil-regierung-in-berlin-vor-GQJEDGQWHFAOXMI33KIST6NDYE.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alta-pete Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 First off, credit to @dorlomin @TxRover and @renton (I am sure there are others but they seem prominent in my reading of this thread) for sharing their collective and clearly credible insight. Makes a refreshing change from other threads to have posters who clearly are/have been itk. My concern though - is this rout of RU something like a wave going out on a beach, only to wash more powerfully back up it when the UA forces are a long way forward of their established lines? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Wilson Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, alta-pete said: First off, credit to @dorlomin @TxRover and @renton (I am sure there are others but they seem prominent in my reading of this thread) for sharing their collective and clearly credible insight. Makes a refreshing change from other threads to have posters who clearly are/have been itk. My concern though - is this rout of RU something like a wave going out on a beach, only to wash more powerfully back up it when the UA forces are a long way forward of their established lines? Are you forgetting anyone? @ICTChris I think that's everyone now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dev Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, alta-pete said: First off, credit to @dorlomin @TxRover and @renton (I am sure there are others but they seem prominent in my reading of this thread) for sharing their collective and clearly credible insight. Makes a refreshing change from other threads to have posters who clearly are/have been itk. My concern though - is this rout of RU something like a wave going out on a beach, only to wash more powerfully back up it when the UA forces are a long way forward of their established lines? If the Ukraine's end game is to recover all of its' pre 2014 territory then there will be the need to consolidate any gains as they may come along. Presumably there will be set-backs, territorially, but this is why the West must continue to support Ukraine, and must do so until the end of this invasion. Failure to do that sends out a signal to Russia that it can do just as it likes - as in Georgia and Crimea. There's no alternative but to stand up to bullies as the alternative will only be worse for the future, not just of the Ukraine but elsewhere in e.g. the Baltic region etc. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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