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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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1 hour ago, MuckleMoo said:

I'm probably miles out here as I wouldn't even pretend to know what I'm talking about but wouldn't Ukraine be receiving pretty significant strategic assistance/guidance/planning, what ever you want to call it, from NATO or countries within NATO already. Is it possible that these latest tactical developments have at least been jointly orchestrated by Ukraine and the West?

While the exact extent of the assistance being provided has not been specified, it is clear that the NATO powers have been giving data to Ukraine. The RAF and USAF Rivet Joint flights circling just outside Ukrainian airspace are capable of detecting and localizing a whole range of signals and such, while the AWCS and satellites have the ability to locate formations and movement of forces. The forwarding of this data has never been explicitly confirmed, but in relation to the Moskva incident, there was verification from a USAF source that if the Ukrainians inquired through channels if a certain target appeared to be X, the word might come back that it appeared to be so.

There is no clear data on what intelligence the Ukrainians might be getting on Russian troop movements and signal intelligence related to potential actions, but it would be very surprising if some liaison has not been established since NATO has all but committed to a proxy war using Ukraine…and the Ukrainians are either very good at guessing what the Russians are doing/planning, or…

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12 minutes ago, MuckleMoo said:
22 minutes ago, Zen Archer (Raconteur) said:
 
 

I have no idea what this means but it doesn't sound good

My take is that Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, are assuming that Russia are too occupied elsewhere to fulfil their commitment to protect Armenia.

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21 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

My take is that Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, are assuming that Russia are too occupied elsewhere to fulfil their commitment to protect Armenia.

Fair view. There are a number of areas across the region where Russia’s thumb has maintained relative “stability”, and with the reduced availability of projectable power on the part of Russia, this may well be the start of a snowball. Turkey is the regional power likely bankrolling this little display, but you can expect to see other parties joining in, like Iran in Syria, etc. I would be quite interested in Chinese current deployments versus historical deployments in the Siberian border area.

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4 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Fair view. There are a number of areas across the region where Russia’s thumb has maintained relative “stability”, and with the reduced availability of projectable power on the part of Russia, this may well be the start of a snowball. Turkey is the regional power likely bankrolling this little display, but you can expect to see other parties joining in, like Iran in Syria, etc. I would be quite interested in Chinese current deployments versus historical deployments in the Siberian border area.

Don't see Russia being in a position to come to the aid of the few allies they've got left...Lukashenka in Belarus must be sleeping with one eye open right now considering he's only in power as a client of Putin.

Even the likes of Georgia could be thinking "Hmmm..."

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8 minutes ago, Hillonearth said:

Don't see Russia being in a position to come to the aid of the few allies they've got left...Lukashenka in Belarus must be sleeping with one eye open right now considering he's only in power as a client of Putin.

Even the likes of Georgia could be thinking "Hmmm..."

The billionaire oligarch who bankrolls and controls Georgian politics has close ties to the Kremlin and Russian oligarchs. He could actually end up being sanctioned for this, so don’t expect a Georgian push on South Ossetia or Abkhazia any time soon.

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Interesting statement from some Municipal Deputies:

 

First part translates as: “Mundeps demand Putin's resignation Municipal deputies from 18 different districts of Moscow, St. Petersburg and Kolpino demand Putin's resignation. The text of the petition is concise and does not “discredit” anyone. If you are a mundep and want to join, you are welcome.

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1 minute ago, TxRover said:

Interesting statement from some Municipal Deputies:

 

First part translates as: “Mundeps demand Putin's resignation Municipal deputies from 18 different districts of Moscow, St. Petersburg and Kolpino demand Putin's resignation. The text of the petition is concise and does not “discredit” anyone. If you are a mundep and want to join, you are welcome.

Looks like a lot of defenestration in the planning.

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