Russian invasion of Ukraine

[LongTimeLurker]

Offensive in Kherson being talked up in a big way:

But the Russians will probably be wondering whether they are being suckered in again with the real target being somewhere else.

 

 

[dorlomin]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/15/europe/russia-ukraine-rape-sexual-violence-military-intl-hnk/index.html

Quote

 

Russia is using rape and sexual violence as part of its “military strategy” in Ukraine, a UN envoy said this week.

The claim follows data released by a panel of UN experts recently that verified “more than a hundred cases” of rape or sexual assault incidents reported in Ukraine since February.

“When you hear women testify about Russian soldiers equipped with Viagra, it’s clearly a military strategy,” Pramila Patten, UN Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, said in an interview with AFP on Thursday.

She added that many cases involved children and also said that the true number of victims was likely to be far higher than official figures suggested because sexual crimes are often “under reported.”

“There are many cases of sexual violence against children who are raped, tortured and sequestered,” Patten said.

“I have not stopped since February to emphasize the importance of having credible investigations into these cases of violence.”

 

There is also the mass deportation of children. 

There are some truly fucking grim accounts of what is happening in occupied Ukraine. 

[TxRover]

3 hours ago, dorlomin said:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/15/europe/russia-ukraine-rape-sexual-violence-military-intl-hnk/index.html

There is also the mass deportation of children. 

There are some truly fucking grim accounts of what is happening in occupied Ukraine. 

See “Let Us Die”, a new documentary that premiers in Dallas:

https://www.wfaa.com/article/features/let-us-die-documentary/287-fc25fd76-fb5c-4462-bf6f-95aef513d86b
 

The Russians have a history with this.

 

In unrelated news, the Russians have retrofitted Belarusian SU-25’s to carry and use nuclear weapons, and have transferred dual use Iskander-M IRBM’s to the Belarusians as well. So, if a Belarusian aircraft drops a nuke on Kyiv, then where are we at?

[Silvio Tattiescone]

 

[LongTimeLurker]

Reports of 22 mobilised Russian soldiers dead in Belgorod after a dispute over religion at a shooting range:

 

 

[Karpaty Lviv]

Crowdfunder has raised $50,000 for the capture of Girkin.

 

[welshbairn]

3 hours ago, TxRover said:

In unrelated news, the Russians have retrofitted Belarusian SU-25’s to carry and use nuclear weapons, and have transferred dual use Iskander-M IRBM’s to the Belarusians as well. So, if a Belarusian aircraft drops a nuke on Kyiv, then where are we at?

More deliberately leaked info to convince the Western public that Putin isn't bluffing about the nuclear threats? Which he is, he's leader of the Russian branch of the Self Preservation Society, before anything else. Asking that question is exactly what he wants on social media throughout the West. 

[TxRover]

3 hours ago, welshbairn said:

More deliberately leaked info to convince the Western public that Putin isn't bluffing about the nuclear threats? Which he is, he's leader of the Russian branch of the Self Preservation Society, before anything else. Asking that question is exactly what he wants on social media throughout the West. 

So the theory there is that a nuke dropped by a Su-25 from Belarus is plausibly deniable…er, nope. Belarus transferred all nuclear warheads to Russia in the 1990’s, so that dog won’t hunt. Any nuke delivered by a Belarusian system is a de facto Russian nuke, so why does Lukashenko leak this, what does he gain?

Perhaps Putin hopes that his puppy barking will dissuade the West from providing more weapons to Ukraine? What other possibilities are there, an attempt to fix Ukrainian forces along the Belarusian border, perhaps? That seems unlikely, as the transfer of weapons out of Belarus to Russia is well under way and cannot easily be reverses.

Are they trying to worry Poland and the Baltic States? That’s a pretty poor bet, as the Poles currently have a military capacity sufficient to potentially defeat Russian in a straight up conventional fight given the attrited state of the Russian military…plus, as a NATO a country, they’d get so much support in the air that the Russian skies would be clear of any threats within a week…plus the U.S. nuclear shield. The Baltics might be a little more worried, but the Russian Army isn’t scaring anyone now, and the Belarusian Army wouldn’t even scare the lads in Dad’s Army.

In short, there appears no reason to leak this…so there must be one, but why?

Edited October 16, 2022 by TxRover

[Detournement]

I would guess it's a reaction to the chatter about a nuclear strike on Belarus being part of US strategy to contain Russia. 

 

[dorlomin]

8 hours ago, welshbairn said:

More deliberately leaked info to convince the Western public that Putin isn't bluffing about the nuclear threats

Poland has asked to join the NATO nuclear sharing deal 2 weeks ago. This is likely a response for Belarussian internal politics, strong man gotta look strong for the Babushkas. But he did not get warheads for his Iskanders so if we are to read meaning into it, he and Putin do not even want the west to notice. The one weapon system that could penetrate Polish air defences that can carry nuclear warheads does not have them. 

I guess it gives Putin the option to move Russian nuclear tipped Iskanders into Belarus, but they already have them in Kaliningrad, something they announce deploying every couple of months. 

Edited October 16, 2022 by dorlomin

[Dev]

Maybe Russia wants to use Belarus as a base for firing all sorts of weapons which would make this country a potential direct target. Therefore Lukashnko needs something which would protect Belarus from attack so nuclear capability could be the answer?

There's some sort of opposition party in Belarus and maybe Lukashenko thinks that close co-operation with Russia will intimidate the opposition? More likely to generate more opposition than support though?

[jagfox]

Belgorod seems to have been targeted a few times along with mysterious fires. Strange RU has not responded directly to these attacks on Russian soil? Maybe they can't? 

[jagfox]

 

[ICTChris]

I think it was a Russian air defence system that was destroyed at Belgorod airport. The system had shot down a couple of Ukrainian planes in the last week.

[Silvio Tattiescone]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

I think it was a Russian air defence system that was destroyed at Belgorod airport. The system had shot down a couple of Ukrainian planes in the last week.

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

[dorlomin]

Russia apparently planning to buy Iranian SRBMs. 

Quick google and the Zolfaghar is an IRBM. 

If true then it against does suggest Russia is critically low on battlefield rockets at the moment. 

[welshbairn]

I could see some Iranian factories suffering some devastating malfunctions and rapid unplanned disassembly.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/16/iran-russia-missiles-ukraine/

[dorlomin]

Wagner aligned telegram channel pushing the Russian version of the replacement theory and predictions of civil war. 

 

Grim. But I have heard quasi apocalyptic pronouncements from senior figures in the Russian regime before. Putin really is not the worst case scenario for Russia. 

[ICTChris]

Some of the vehicles being transferred to and around Belarus have tactical markings on them - seems like a white triangle with a 2 in them, could be this attacks version of the Z from the start of the invasion.

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, dorlomin said:

Russia apparently planning to buy Iranian SRBMs. 

Quick google and the Zolfaghar is an IRBM. 

If true then it against does suggest Russia is critically low on battlefield rockets at the moment. 

The Fateh-100 is a short range, semi-ballistic missile with about a 300km range. The Zolfaghar is a true ballistic version of the Fateh-100, about 700km range. Both are evaluated as poor performers by interested parties, with reliability and accuracy concerns. Both are also assessed to use commercial GNSS signals for targeting and guidance, so will be heavily degraded in the Ukrainian environment.

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

I could see some Iranian factories suffering some devastating malfunctions and rapid unplanned disassembly.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/16/iran-russia-missiles-ukraine/

So Israel refused to transfer any missiles to Ukraine…Israel is also requesting more funding, from the U.S. for laser missile defence, hum…

Also, Israeli intelligence has reported Iran using Syrian facilities to produce some missiles…and Israel just struck some Syrian targets of an unknown nature, hum…

Wouldn't be very surprised if the Iranian factories do indeed start having some issues, courtesy of Mossad, and the U.S. passes some funding for Israeli anti-missile research.