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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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20 minutes ago, jagfox said:

:Putin is more a Tsar than a president. No way he loses an election IF it takes place. Even Navalny is a right wing nutjob, although he might not lst too long anyway. 

Alexei Navalny: Concern grows for health of jailed Putin critic

I don't think Putin's as good at fixing elections as he thought he was, it's the reason he invaded Ukraine. 

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2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I don't think Putin's as good at fixing elections as he thought he was, it's the reason he invaded Ukraine. 

Russia is not a democracy. The state has been built around Putin for over 20 years. He's going nowhere unless he dies.

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5 minutes ago, jagfox said:

Russia is not a democracy. The state has been built around Putin for over 20 years. He's going nowhere unless he dies.

I agree it's unlikely but as soon as he's perceived as damaged goods his backers will be out the door. Even Stalin was supposedly left to die on the floor by his closest comrades. 

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2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I agree it's unlikely but as soon as he's perceived as damaged goods his backers will be out the door. Even Stalin was supposedly left to die on the floor by his closest comrades. 

He is surrounded by yes men and stooges and the full weight of the law and its custodians, armed forces, judiciary, police and secret services. The revolution will not be televised because it will not actually happen.

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1 minute ago, jagfox said:

He is surrounded by yes men and stooges and the full weight of the law and its custodians, armed forces, judiciary, police and secret services. The revolution will not be televised because it will not actually happen.

He's paid for that loyalty by transferring the wealth he confiscated from the likes of the kleptocrat Khodorkovsky to his ex KGB and FSB cronies, along with members of the connected criminal underworld like Prigozhin, whilst squirreling away vast amounts for his own retirement fund. I doubt his support network is unconditional, especially if his popularity drops along with his financial weight.

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56 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

He's paid for that loyalty by transferring the wealth he confiscated from the likes of the kleptocrat Khodorkovsky to his ex KGB and FSB cronies, along with members of the connected criminal underworld like Prigozhin, whilst squirreling away vast amounts for his own retirement fund. I doubt his support network is unconditional, especially if his popularity drops along with his financial weight.

Nobody will overthrow him though. How would that even be attempted? Wagner group aren't going to storm the Kremlin, are they?

There is no effective threat to his rule. 

Edited by jagfox
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14 hours ago, jagfox said:

Nobody will overthrow him though. How would that even be attempted? ...

It would most likely have to be his inner circles in a similar manner to how Khrushchev was ousted. There's a reason he got them all to say they supported his invasion special military operation on live television before it happened.

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16 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Didn't realise there's a Russian presidential election in March next year.  Normally candidates announce their candidacy in October, properly starting the campaigns. An ex Russian politician on C4 news thinks that if Ukraine manages to sever the Donbass-Crimea land bridge Putin's fucked. I suppose he could declare martial law and postpone it, but even if he loses, his replacement is likely to be someone even further to the Nationalist Right, unless Moscow starts losing the propaganda war internally with the death rate of conscripts seeping into public knowledge, and likely expansion of mobilisation.

Have they not already counted the ballots?

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The apartment building in Dnipro appears to have been destroyed by a Russian anti-ship missile, designed to attack aircraft carriers. These missiles can’t be reliably shot down by current Ukrainian air defence but the Patriot systems due to be delivered in the next few months will be able to. The same type of missile was used on the daytime attack on a shopping mall in Kremenchuk several months ago.

Current counts are that more than 10 people have been killed, likely to rise. Pro-Russia commentators have jumped on comments by a Ukrainian former presidential spokesman who said that Ukraine had shot down the missile and the debris caused the damage - this seems to be untrue and doesn’t match with the information that is currently available.  

The Russian MoD posted this on Telegram after the attack 

image.thumb.png.1379ed748b332cb2fabcb634f138748f.png

The text says “We load to the maximum”. Worth also remembering that around 10% of the population of Dnipro are refugees from the areas occupied by Russian troops.

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