Russian invasion of Ukraine

[welshbairn]

3 hours ago, TxRover said:

Kerch bridge closed to traffic, reports of explosions, something happened about the 145th support from the Russian side.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/16/europe/russia-crimea-bridge-intl-hnk/index.html

 

[ICTChris]

Could be a USV (naval drone) that got to the Kerch bridge.  If it was the spans that were damaged that seems likely.

Russia has also pulled out of the grain deal (again).  Remains to be seen what happens if Turkey and Ukraine continue the shipments - will Russia attack ships delivering grain and their Turkish naval escorts?

Another point of note is that nine years ago today the Russian armed forces shot down a passenger jet over Ukraine, killing 298 people.  None of those responsible have been brought to justice, yet.

Also, another video released from, apparently, Belgorod region showing Ukraine-aligned Chechen fighters ambushing a Russian truck.

 

 

Edited July 17, 2023 by ICTChris

[TommyDickFingers]

27 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Could be a USV (naval drone) that got to the Kerch bridge.  If it was the spans that were damaged that seems likely.

Busy weekend for the Ukrainian remote controlled boat enthusiasts. 

 

[TxRover]

4 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Could be a USV (naval drone) that got to the Kerch bridge.  If it was the spans that were damaged that seems likely.

Russia has also pulled out of the grain deal (again).  Remains to be seen what happens if Turkey and Ukraine continue the shipments - will Russia attack ships delivering grain and their Turkish naval escorts?

Another point of note is that nine years ago today the Russian armed forces shot down a passenger jet over Ukraine, killing 298 people.  None of those responsible have been brought to justice, yet.

Also, another video released from, apparently, Belgorod region showing Ukraine-aligned Chechen fighters ambushing a Russian truck.

 

 

Reports it was two drone that struck the bridge.

Russia has announced it has opposed extending the grain deal…will be interesting to see what happens now.

Meanwhile, Putin says if the Ukrainians use cluster munitions, Russia will too…conveniently ignoring the fact they have been using them…followed by a denial or Russian use of them, apparently for domestic consumption and Tucker Carlson.

[ICTChris]

The attack on the truck in Belgorod seems to have been carried out by a Chechen group who left Syria to fight against Russians in Ukraine - Ajnad Al Kavkaz. The group is led by Rustam Azhiev, also known as Abdul Hakim Al-Shishani, who fought in the Second Chechen war and subsequently against Syrian government and Russian forces in Latakia province on Syria. The group never joined overall rebel structures and were eventually forced to leave the country. There was footage earlier in the war of Akmed Zakayev meeting Al-Sishani in Ukraine and appointing him head of Ichkerian forces. Al Shishani is in the footage of the attack, he’s clearly leading from the front.

One interesting* thing is that al-Shishani had previously been affiliated with the Caucasian Emirate, who effecting took over the Chechen armed resistance and sidelined Zakayev and the Ichkerian separatists.  The level of armed and civil  resistance in Chechnya itself has massively reduced due to the repression by Kadyrov but also by many of the groups moving to Syria. Seems like they have mended their bridges, at least in part.

 

 

*it’s interesting to me, a weirdo who takes an interest in conflict in thr Caucasus.

[TommyDickFingers]

Kerch bridge on fire
Your defence is terrified....

 

[jagfox]

Russia ramped up missile and drone attacks last night. 

Seem to have been targeting Odesa in recent days.

[TxRover]

4 hours ago, jagfox said:

Russia ramped up missile and drone attacks last night. 

Seem to have been targeting Odesa in recent days.

There is potentially a point where the NATO/Western countries will, of necessity, consent to a transfer of offensive missiles in numbers to attack Russian targets, simply because of shortages of defensive missiles, unless Russia stops these strikes. That will be the point of maximum escalation risk in this conflict.

[LongTimeLurker]

Only surprise is it took this long:

Will be interesting to see if there are any revelations now about past misdeeds by Vlad given there was always a suspicion that Igor Girkin was being tolerated because he had the ability to embarrass the Russian leadership in a big way if anything untoward ever happened to him related to falling out of a window, drinking dodgy polonium-laced tea, etc.

[MazzyStar]

On 16/07/2023 at 22:32, TommyDickFingers said:

Russians showing off the new lancet loitering munition today.

Quite the piece of kit if it works as advertised. Many reasons to hope it doesn't obviously, one of which would be getting to reuse the pic in the compo faces thread later.

[TommyDickFingers]

58 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Only surprise is it took this long:

Will be interesting to see if there are any revelations now about past misdeeds by Vlad given there was always a suspicion that Igor Girkin was being tolerated because he had the ability to embarrass the Russian leadership in a big way if anything untoward ever happened to him related to falling out of a window, drinking dodgy polonium-laced tea, etc.

Pity he wasn't head first out a window 4 days ago, would still have been 9 years too late tbf.

[TommyDickFingers]

6 minutes ago, MazzyStar said:

Timeless

[welshbairn]

Igor getting banged up was probably part of the deal Putin made with Prigozhin.

[Dev]

It also gives Girkin protection from arrest for his dirty work!

[Silvio Tattiescone]

Quote

“The western territories of present-day Poland are a gift from Stalin to the Poles, have our friends in Warsaw forgotten about this?” Putin said. “We will remind you.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/21/putin-warn-poland-against-unleashing-aggression-against-belarus-troops-eastern-border

 

 

I think the Poles are just itching to get stuck into Russia.

[SweeperDee]

Just now, Newbornbairn said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/21/putin-warn-poland-against-unleashing-aggression-against-belarus-troops-eastern-border

 

 

I think the Poles are just itching to get stuck into Russia.

Who could blame them? If Poland decided to actually have a go at Russia it would be the end of the world, but only cause Russia knows they'd be steamrollered. 

[Cosmic Joe]

My wife's family is Polish. The eastern half despise Russia, the western half hate Germany. Historically it's difficult to blame them. Brutal history. 

[TxRover]

6 minutes ago, Cosmic Joe said:

My wife's family is Polish. The eastern half despise Russia, the western half hate Germany. Historically it's difficult to blame them. Brutal history. 

There's the joke about the Polish soldier with a rifle, one bullet, and a bayonet. There's a German coming from the West and a Russian coming from the East, what does he do? He shoots the German and then stabs the Russian...business before pleasure.

[LongTimeLurker]

My experience of working with lots of Poles over the years and having some relatives who are part Polish is that they have no problem harbouring animosity for more than one of their neighbours and that something you definitely would not want to be if you were living in Warsaw is a gay Jewish communist.

The people that live in present day western and northern Poland were mostly originally from Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania ancestrally and got moved there courtesy of Stalin's border changes at the end of WWII so if anything they are the ones that are more likely to be anti-Russian. The main football clubs in Szczecin and Gdansk have the same names as pre-war Polish clubs from Lviv in present day Ukraine because that's where a lot of their supporters wound up after the ethnic Germans that lived there previously got expelled.

Edited July 22, 2023 by LongTimeLurker

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

My experience of working with lots of Poles over the years and having some relatives who are part Polish is that they have no problem harbouring animosity for more than one of their neighbours and that something you definitely would not want to be if you were living in Warsaw is a gay Jewish communist.

The people that live in present day western and northern Poland were mostly originally from Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania ancestrally and got moved there courtesy of Stalin's border changes at the end of WWII so if anything they are the ones that are more likely to be anti-Russian. The main football clubs in Szczecin and Gdansk have the same names as pre-war Polish clubs from Lviv in present day Ukraine because that's where a lot of their supporters wound up after the ethnic Germans that lived there previously got expelled.

Gdańsk/Danzig has been “cleansed” of various ethnicities and groups multiple times. My paternal relatives were a mix of Poles and Germans that ended up in the Free City of Danzig between the wars. Even they had stories of how the Poles were developing Gydnia in the Polish Corridor to avoid the German prejudice within Danzig proper, leaving Danzig with less than 3% Polish residents. Then the Jews started fleeing as the Nazi’s came to power. Then at the end of WW2, many of the Germans left to flee west before the Russians and were replaced by displaced Poles, Belarusians, Ukrainians and Lithuanians.