ICTChris Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Reports that Ukraine launched a raid into Crimea last night, targeting the same area as the long range strikes yesterday. All a bit hazy at the moment but seems to have been a sea borne attack on the area of a launch site of Shahed drones. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Excellent discussion on Prigozhin and what his assumed death means for Wagner. Really good background on Wagner, I’m half way through. https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/geopolitics-decanted-by-silverado/id1614010500?i=1000625513375 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Sanchez Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 8 hours ago, TommyDickFingers said: This was early after the initial reports of the plane going down. A wagner replacement perhaps. This seems logical. Wagner were initially useful to the Kremlin because of the plausible deniability they afforded at a time when Russia was still concerned with diplomatic relations. Post-Feb 22, the picture with Russian internatinal relations dramatically changed. The cat's out the bag now so there's no longer a need for plausible deniability and with that, Wagner's utility to the Kremlin ended. Operations that were previously being outsourced to Wagner will now be openly controlled by the Russian state. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 7 hours ago, Bairnardo said: There surely must, and I know there has been previous, less realistic talk of this before, but there must now be powerful men in the Inner circle starting to think firstly, do I need to make a move here before I end up next. Or at least, how do I prepare for the possibility that Putin can't win this war and as such loses power and position. Make a move when you're in the inner circle and don't have the mercenary army of the last clown who tried that, or just wait until Putin becomes incapacitated or dies like the standard transfer of power in almost all autocracies. Quite why anyone would be more likely to choose the former after the past 24 hours is anyone's gues. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Excellent discussion on Prigozhin and what his assumed death means for Wagner. Really good background on Wagner as well. https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/geopolitics-decanted-by-silverado/id1614010500?i=1000625513375 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Seems legit. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 4 hours ago, virginton said: Make a move when you're in the inner circle and don't have the mercenary army of the last clown who tried that, or just wait until Putin becomes incapacitated or dies like the standard transfer of power in almost all autocracies. Quite why anyone would be more likely to choose the former after the past 24 hours is anyone's gues. In these situations, as you well know, the autocrat can generate action against him/her with unstable behaviour. If his actions cause those in the circle concern they could be next, they might start manoeuvring. When the autocrat behaves “rationally” in the eyes of his circle, they would guard any thoughts of disloyalty for fear of being reported…when his behaviour becomes less rational or wholly irrational, there is a shift to securing allies for protection or exiting the entire situation via exile, if able. Putin’s “operation” is not a rational thing, especially destroying one of his most effective forces during a counterattack. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, ICTChris said: Seems legit. More likely one of Prigozhen’s men had tacos and was using the bathroom while smoking… 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 (edited) 6 hours ago, ICTChris said: Seems legit. I saw this satirical tweet yesterday predicting which conspiracy theory nonsense would be put out and it seems they got it right: Edited August 25, 2023 by FreedomFarter 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 https://www.proekt.media/guide/russian-war-oligarchs/ A significant chunk of the oligarchy are directly profiting from the invasion and occupation of Ukraine. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 1 hour ago, FreedomFarter said: https://www.proekt.media/guide/russian-war-oligarchs/ A significant chunk of the oligarchy are directly profiting from the invasion and occupation of Ukraine. Surprised it’s only 83. The other 117 must be shitting themselves. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 9 hours ago, TxRover said: In these situations, as you well know, the autocrat can generate action against him/her with unstable behaviour. If his actions cause those in the circle concern they could be next, they might start manoeuvring. When the autocrat behaves “rationally” in the eyes of his circle, they would guard any thoughts of disloyalty for fear of being reported…when his behaviour becomes less rational or wholly irrational, there is a shift to securing allies for protection or exiting the entire situation via exile, if able. Putin’s “operation” is not a rational thing, especially destroying one of his most effective forces during a counterattack. It's entirely rational because the guy literally led an armed fucking revolt against Putin/the state two months ago. Which is why every insider source expected such an unfortunate accident to happen. Your rambling non-sequitur also overlooks the high likelihood explanation that the Russian military carried out the assassination as payback for their own grievances, which puts Putin and the remaining military apparatus firmly on the same page again. Putin's monopoly of force is stronger not weaker either way which makes all your Pop Psychology for Dummies babble completely redundant. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 4 hours ago, virginton said: It's entirely rational because the guy literally led an armed fucking revolt against Putin/the state two months ago. Which is why every insider source expected such an unfortunate accident to happen. Your rambling non-sequitur also overlooks the high likelihood explanation that the Russian military carried out the assassination as payback for their own grievances, which puts Putin and the remaining military apparatus firmly on the same page again. Putin's monopoly of force is stronger not weaker either way which makes all your Pop Psychology for Dummies babble completely redundant. Have you even taken the time to read a post before you issue one of YOUR rambling, abusive missives? Is the emoji key worn off your keyboard? Do you have a bookshelf full of “…for Dummies” books that prompts your go to response? I simply pointed out that a dictatorship is ruled via a balance of the carrot and the stick. Putin’s recent decisions and action seem to suggest the carrot is in disfavour, which can certainly change the behaviour of those within his inner circle. If that’s too difficult to comprehend, feel free to move to a thread more suited to your addled brain, perhaps Brittany’s Instagram. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 Made a ridiculous claim about bumping off a mercenary rebel general 'not being rational' for an autocrat. Got called out for this utter horseshit take. Sprays completely irrelevant blustering nonsense against the wall until everyone lets you have the final word. Rinse and repeat every single day until you do us all a favour and delete your account. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Florentine_Pogen Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 1 minute ago, virginton said: Made a ridiculous claim about bumping off a mercenary rebel general 'not being rational' for an autocrat. Got called out for this utter horseshit take. Sprays completely irrelevant blustering nonsense against the wall until everyone lets you have the final word. Rinse and repeat every single day until you do us all a favour and delete your account. 'Physician, heal thyself.............' 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 4 hours ago, virginton said: Made a ridiculous claim about bumping off a mercenary rebel general 'not being rational' for an autocrat. Got called out for this utter horseshit take. Sprays completely irrelevant blustering nonsense against the wall until everyone lets you have the final word. Rinse and repeat every single day until you do us all a favour and delete your account. Ignores that the original post he’s commenting on makes an entirely different point. Attacks a poster for something not said. We can but hope. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmic Joe Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 18 hours ago, TxRover said: More likely one of Prigozhen’s men had tacos and was using the bathroom while smoking… What kind of a plane has a bathroom? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 1 hour ago, TxRover said: Ignores that the original post he’s commenting on makes an entirely different point. Attacks a poster for something not said. We can but hope. Well no you quite clearly did say it champ. Just because you want to slink away from your nonsense take with your tail between your legs doesn't mean it didn't happen. 19 hours ago, TxRover said: Putin’s “operation” is not a rational thing, especially destroying one of his most effective forces during a counterattack. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Cosmic Joe said: What kind of a plane has a bathroom? Easyjet frequent flyers programme. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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