Russian invasion of Ukraine

[welshbairn]

A submarine and large landing ship were hit according to Ukraine.

[welshbairn]

Looks like I'll be late home for tea Anya..

[ICTChris]

30 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

A submarine and large landing ship were hit according to Ukraine.

Some Russian sources saying that both vessels have been destroyed.  Russia had five submarines capable of firing missiles, this attack has reduced their capacity to attack Ukraine in this way by 20%.  Many of the attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure have come from missiles launched by these submarines, reducing these capabilities is important ahead of winter and a potential new campaign attacking the Ukrainian power grid.

In addition, the attack will have seriously damaged the facilities at Sevastopol - this is the only dry dock facility the Russians have in the Black Sea and if the Ukrainians have damaged it and have the ability to hit it successfully then it's a sea change (pardon the pun) in Russian Navy operations in the Black Sea. 

[welshbairn]

5 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

In addition, the attack will have seriously damaged the facilities at Sevastopol - this is the only dry dock facility the Russians have in the Black Sea and if the Ukrainians have damaged it and have the ability to hit it successfully then it's a sea change (pardon the pun) in Russian Navy operations in the Black Sea. 

They've got 2 floating dry docks in Novorossiysk, I don't know if they're any use for military ships or subs.

[LongTimeLurker]

Obvious questions would be whether the Ukrainians taking over the oil and gas rigs yesterday helped make this attack possible in some way and whether the naval base in Sevastopol is now a viable option for the Russian Navy moving forward? If naval vessels can be destroyed once like this, then presumably, the only thing stopping a repeat is how many missiles the Ukrainians have access to? The Little Green Men taking over Crimea back in 2014 was all about stopping NATO from gaining access to the Ukrainian portion of Sevastopol's naval base, so having to beat a hasty retreat to Novorossiysk at this point where all the undamaged Russian naval vessels are concerned would be completely humiliating for Vlad.

Edited September 13, 2023 by LongTimeLurker

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

They've got 2 floating dry docks in Novorossiysk, I don't know if they're any use for military ships or subs.

Using a floating dry dock, during a war with an enemy who has shown deep strike ability, is a huge gamble. The fact that Ukraine hit the dry dock AND ships in them is significant as they are faced with repairing any breach’s in water integrity; then clearing the dry dock of water, debris and damaged vessels; and finally repairing any additional damage to the structure and restoring operational ability. If they don’t want to risk using the floating dry dock, any vessel needing significant repairs is, de facto, out of the war.

Reports it was a Ropucha-class amphibious vessel (possibly the same one damaged a couple of months ago) and a Kilo-class submarine in the dry dock. That’s one of four Kilos that the Russians have been launching Kalibr cruise missiles from against Ukraine. Russian reports that the attack was 10 cruise missiles and 3 seaborne drones, and that all the drones and 7 of the 10 missives were intercepted.

[ICTChris]

[Silvio Tattiescone]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66798508

 

Russian tried to shoot down an RAF plane in 2022. It survived because Russian tech is shit.

[beefybake]

8 hours ago, Newbornbairn said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66798508

 

Russian tried to shoot down an RAF plane in 2022. It survived because Russian tech is shit.

From reading that article, it rather looks like the sources were at the US end, and the UK/MOD would have continued to

cover it up.   In particular what the minister, Wallace, said to parliament.

 

 

[TxRover]

18 hours ago, Newbornbairn said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66798508

 

Russian tried to shoot down an RAF plane in 2022. It survived because Russian tech is shit.

Been mulling this one over, trying to figure the angles if it had happened. Probably the Russians know first what has happened, but if the Rivet Joint didn’t go down immediately, that could change. If the Russians get the news straight first, they probably immediately announce a “terrible mistake” and issue apologies. Next is UK and U.S., both demanding an end to the intercepts and a Russian pullback. NATO announces concern and a meeting. Most likely no actual direct action taken by the West, but longer range weapons and heavy tanks provided to Ukraine much earlier. There is a chance the Russians get informed that the next radar system that locks onto a Western aircraft or vessel will be presumed hostile and attacked.

[GuyIncognito]

Hearing that President of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov has died. Just a rumour though.

[doulikefish]

2 hours ago, GuyIncognito said:

Hearing that President of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov has died. Just a rumour though.

Seemingly not dead but in a coma 

[welshbairn]

7 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

Seemingly not dead but in a coma 

And supposedly had his doctor buried alive before lapsing into it.

[Wee-Bey]

[TxRover]

Ukraine destroys an S-400 system…that’s a problem for Russia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66805897

The S-400 is widely regarded as the best thing Russia has produced in quite some time. They are relying upon the S-400’s to defend their highest values targets, in this case it was controlling the area around Crimea. It has a 400nm range, and is very effective, so how did the Ukrainians destroy it? It seems they simply looked at the system capacity and played it. The Ukrainians launched multiple waves of drones into Crimea with targets the Russians couldn’t ignore. They S-400 engaged and shot down almost all the drones, and expended all of its ammunition. At which point the Ukrainians hit the S-400 with cruise missiles, which couldn’t be shot down because there were no more anti-missile/anti-drone missiles left for the S-400 to fire. It’s a version of what the Russians have been trying repeatedly against Ukraine, but used against a half a billion dollar plus, irreplaceable weapon system that the Russians simply can’t produce replacements for in the short term.

Yes, the Russians will adapt, probably by mandating their air defense systems never expend their last 4 or 8 missiles unless the target is aimed at them, but even then the effectiveness of Russian air defences is now degraded. The other option would be putting more S1 Pantsir units around the S-400, which reduces the forward air defenses for Russian forces. Either option is a poor choice for the Russians, who now have significantly reduced capacity to inhibit further Ukrainian strikes on Sevastopol and the Crimea in general. This also removes a major portion of air defenses from Russian naval units in the Black Sea, and may inhibit use of the remaining four submarines for Kalibr attacks from the south.

[LongTimeLurker]

[Billy Jean King]

On 16/09/2023 at 09:25, LongTimeLurker said:

Odd job to take between filming series of Pointless but needs must I suppose.

[TxRover]

Latest intelligence estimates put Russian missile stocks at 585, at the end of August. That includes 270 9K720 Iskander missiles SRBM’s, about 140 3M-14 Kaliber cruise missiles, a total of about 100 Kh-101, Kh-555 and Kh-55 cruise missiles, and an estimated stockpile of 75 9-S-7760 Khinzal air-launched ballistic missiles.

Production figures are 118 missiles of all types each month. For August, the Russian production plan, called for delivering 42 new Iskander missiles, 40 Kh-101s, 20 Kalibrs, 10 Kh-32s, and 6 Khinzals.

Despite domestic final assembly of Shahed-136 drones, there is still a delivery bottleneck with drone deliveries from Iran. Russian forces have improved their route planning to reduce the exposure of their strikes to Ukrainian air defences, which may explain the increasing reports of overflights of neutral third parties like Moldova and Romania, a very risky strategy. The focus on strikes against the grain facilities at Reni are the most likely flashpoint for this strategy, but this area has less in the way of air defenses due to the proximity to the Black Sea and being on the Romanian border, so it is an appealing target.

[The DA]

11 hours ago, TxRover said:

Latest intelligence estimates put Russian missile stocks at 585, at the end of August. That includes 270 9K720 Iskander missiles SRBM’s, about 140 3M-14 Kaliber cruise missiles, a total of about 100 Kh-101, Kh-555 and Kh-55 cruise missiles, and an estimated stockpile of 75 9-S-7760 Khinzal air-launched ballistic missiles.

Production figures are 118 missiles of all types each month. For August, the Russian production plan, called for delivering 42 new Iskander missiles, 40 Kh-101s, 20 Kalibrs, 10 Kh-32s, and 6 Khinzals.

Despite domestic final assembly of Shahed-136 drones, there is still a delivery bottleneck with drone deliveries from Iran. Russian forces have improved their route planning to reduce the exposure of their strikes to Ukrainian air defences, which may explain the increasing reports of overflights of neutral third parties like Moldova and Romania, a very risky strategy. The focus on strikes against the grain facilities at Reni are the most likely flashpoint for this strategy, but this area has less in the way of air defenses due to the proximity to the Black Sea and being on the Romanian border, so it is an appealing target.

Any idea how many they're expending each month?  Is it more than 118, for example?

[TxRover]

3 hours ago, The DA said:

Any idea how many they're expending each month?  Is it more than 118, for example?

It’s not an openly discussed figure that I can find. They have moved, as Ukraine has, to using lots of relatively inexpensive drones and a few missiles. The Iskanders are the relatively unstoppable ballistic strikes on general targets, the more precision strikes should generally be the cruise missiles…however, recent discussion on the MiG31I “improved” version of the MiG31K mentions that part of the inaccuracy of the cruise missiles is the pilots were having to enter coordinates manually during flight, and the “newer” MiG does it automatically. This also allows deceptive routings, potentially increasing the percentage of missiles hitting the targets, unfortunately. The average numbers seem to be in the 5-10 units per strike, which would be 150-300 per month if they struck daily, but they are more sparing than that while having the occasional splurge.