Russian invasion of Ukraine

[TxRover]

China and India called for a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine, declining to support Russia, in the UN. This is the likely consequence of Vlad’s nuclear threats. Both China and India see very real dangers in their future if Vlad lobbed a tac nuke in Ukraine…China worrying about the precedent with regard to Taiwan; India considering Pakistan.

The Chinese believe that they can outlast the U.S. defence of Taiwan, but know that Taiwan could likely cobble together a nuke or three within a year of deciding, so a precedent for use of tac nukes in warfare, something we’ve avoided since WWII, would be bad for them. The Indians know that Pakistan could be compelled to use tac nukes if they got into a real shooting war with India because of the two to one supremacy of India’s conventional forces. It’s also worth noting that Pakistan is reported to have more nukes than India.

As it now stands, Russia is out of allies. North Korea denies it is selling any weapons to Russia, the Chinese cannot supply the artillery round the Russians need the most, Putin has backed himself into a corner…the time of maximum concern is near.

[LongTimeLurker]

Don't know about Taiwan but having lived and worked in Japan for many years in the past I know the word there is that although they are not a nuclear power they have made sure that they could quickly (i.e. months rather than years) move to being one if they ever felt they needed to meaning they effectively are in all but name. Suspect Taiwan would be similar.

[jagfox]

 

[LongTimeLurker]

9 hours ago, ICTChris said:

...Could be that there has been new technology delivered but much more likely that Russia are now having to fly riskier missions due to the Ukrainian gains in recent weeks...

The Ukrainians appear to finally be making their move towards northern Luhansk oblast where the Russians apparently don't have effective defensive lines set up so definitely some evidence pointing to the latter:

 

 

 

 

[ICTChris]

More Shahed drones have been launched at Odessa this morning.

Seems like the Russians are using these weapons to target HQ buildings in the South, specifically Odessa. Quite a few of them are being shot down though.

Edited September 25, 2022 by ICTChris

[jagfox]

Reading between the lines with Rissians leaving the Motherland in droves where does that put soldiers/ conscripts from Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts? A small sample size but seems the soldiers from Luhansk referred to in this thread are ready to drop their rifles as soon as the Ukrainian Army rocks up. RU don't have the troops to plug anymore gaps. 

Interesting to see if there will be legs to the thrust towards/around Lyman perhaps with a second thrust from another position in the next week or so? 

[MazzyStar]

 

[jagfox]

 

[welshbairn]

26 minutes ago, MazzyStar said:

 

"Live in Kyiv but temporarily abroad" - willing to fight till the last Ukrainian.

[welshbairn]

Russia forced to trade coal at a loss to divert exports from Europe.

 

Quote

Russian coal continues to trade at a discount of about 65-70% to Australian counterparts on an FOB basis, making it attractive enough for Chinese consumers to buy, says Alfa Bank's Boris Krasnozhenov. According to his estimates, the FOB price of 6000 kcal thermal coal in the port of Taman is $112. Transportation by Panamax and Capesize class ships from Taman to South Korea, according to world consulting agencies, is $44 and $25 per ton, respectively. Thus, the analyst says, coal on a basis with delivery to Chinese ports (CFR) should cost about $140-160 per ton to maintain profitability when delivered through the Black Sea ports. 

 

[jagfox]

Supposed large turnout of voters in Russian occupied regions of Ukraine...

[Moomintroll]

3 minutes ago, jagfox said:

Supposed large turnout of voters in Russian occupied regions of Ukraine...

Well, yes, armed soldiers knocking on your door will encourage the right result for the wannabee Hitler.

[Squonk]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-63026101

[welshbairn]

China's hostility to nukes is that making them an option would put them down in the also rans instead of going mano a mano economically with the US and militarily in the South China Sea. 

[Melanius Mullarkey]

27 minutes ago, Squonk said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-63026101

Roger H_B Waters

[welshbairn]

Series of vids from Dagestan protests on this feed.

 

[jagfox]

Mobilisation appears to be targeting non-ethnic Russians. Tartars being called up in Crimea. Only Kadhrov seems to have stood up this at an official level after demonstrations in Chechnya he said they had done their bit.  

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, jagfox said:

Mobilisation appears to be targeting non-ethnic Russians. Tartars being called up in Crimea. Only Kadhrov seems to have stood up this at an official level after demonstrations in Chechnya he said they had done their bit.  

He's supposedly rounding up non Chechens for conscription though. He originally told the female protesters that if they didn't go home all their male relatives would be sent to the front, though for Chechens that seems to mainly making videos duty behind the lines. 

[jagfox]

 

[TxRover]

10 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Don't know about Taiwan but having lived and worked in Japan for many years in the past I know the word there is that although they are not a nuclear power they have made sure that they could quickly (i.e. months rather than years) move to being one if they ever felt they needed to meaning they effectively are in all but name. Suspect Taiwan would be similar.

The phrase is a “screwdrivers turn away” from being a nuclear power. For Japan, that is entirely plausible, and the same for South Korea. Taiwan is more likely in the 1-3 year category (along with Germany, Australia etc.) because of the U.S. nuclear shield promise and the notice they would have that it might be going away. Otherwise, most technically capable counties in the world could expect to have deployable nukes in 3-5 years, the delivery system is the sticking point.

1 hour ago, jagfox said:

 

That’s about exactly what we would have expected. The public statements from India and China were likely planned to coincide with the private messages mentioned here. With Serbia even commenting against Putin’s stunts, Russia is pretty well isolated.