Russian invasion of Ukraine

[ICTChris]

Spain have now provided air defence systems to Ukraine. Since the missile attacks on Ukraine the UK, Germany, France and now Spain have all pledged anti air defence to Ukraine.

The US are also going to send assistance and it’s rumoured that Israel are also providing assistance, although it’s short of their Iron Dome anti missile system.

[jagfox]

Putin’s tactical mistake Vladislav Inozemtsev on how Putin lost the gas war with Europe

Interesting article. 

[welshbairn]

 

[jagfox]

Interesting times as it is hard to see where Putin goes next. 

The energy war and threat to gas and oil exportation seems to have set EU and other European nations on a different path and to new markets with prices moving towards some kind of stability way below the peak prices earlier in the year.

Militarily buoyed by the incisions into Georgia and Ukraine in 2014 Russia seems to have felt the SMO would have been a lightning war with little impact in terms of retribution in the form of sanctions.

Ukrainian resistance has gone way beyond after initial losses due to a general resilience, strong leadership not to mention billions of £s worth of NATO and EU military assistance.

The recent missile attacks seem a flailing lash out without any coherent tactical outcome as with the seemingly hapless mobilisation which may plug some defensive gaps but little impact on achieving offensive goals. 

While UFA have benefitted from weaponry superior to that of RU forces Russia is emptying Belarus and warehouses of materiel of in some cases outdated tanks and other systems. There is evidence they are running low on accurate missile delivery systems, evening using S300 air defence systems in an offensive role. 

UFA are incressing air and missile defences so hopefully this will lessen the impact of these missile and drone strikes.

Communications are an issue with Kerch Bridge still not functions and HIMARS impact on local ammo deposits and supply routes.

Kherson Oblast seems set to fall this year so we are left wondering where next?

Talks are seemingly off the table as Ukraine has the bit between its teeth.

Does Putin go for some kind of grandstand event which in turn could give it a get our such as a mooted tactical nuclear strike which would result in a massive conventional retaliation?

Will they draw a line with what they have and offer some kind of deal?

Will RU seek further mobilisation? But seem to lack basic equipment and training whereas UFA just got 10000 UK trained troops who will slot straight into or even lead offensive operations.

Or will the war just drag on until it reaches some kind of stalemate?

TL;DR What next? Are there any exit routes for Russia? At what point would UA consider negotiations to start or are they too far down the rabbit hole?

 

[jagfox]

 

Edited October 14, 2022 by jagfox

[jagfox]

 

[renton]

49 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Spain have now provided air defence systems to Ukraine. Since the missile attacks on Ukraine the UK, Germany, France and now Spain have all pledged anti air defence to Ukraine.

The US are also going to send assistance and it’s rumoured that Israel are also providing assistance, although it’s short of their Iron Dome anti missile system.

Iron Dome isn't really what they are after anyway. That system is a very short range missile married to a pretty advanced algorithm and AESA radar that allows it to engage a lot of those unguided rockets fired by Hamas, all at once.

What Ukraine needs now are medium and long range high altitude systems. Germany is providing the IRIS-T medium range (25km) system before it has e en fielded in German service. The UK likewise has the new and shiny Sky Sabre system (same CAMM missile as deployed for short to medium range engagement by RN frigates) but only has one battery of those active, and its deployed in Poland. NASAMS is similar again.

Those systems would be sufficient against cruise missiles if fielded in enough depth. For the ballistic missile threat you need to start looking at Patriot, AEGIS ashore or SAMP-T (same missiles as the long range missiles on RN destroyers). Systems with radar and control elements capable of tracking hypersonic targets through the higher atmosphere.

Ironically, ground based air defence is not something NATO has a lot of depth with, compared to Russian based systems. Partly because 20 years of COIN type campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan pushed budgets away from developing new systems to replace Cold War legacy systems (it took to last year to get Sky Sabre in to replace the British Army's 40 year old Rapier system) but also because NATO doctrine is based on overwhelming air superiority. The thinking goes along the lines of: the best system to shoot down a cruise missile is a fighter jet, better yet shoot down the enemy aircraft before it can launch the missile, better still interdict and destroy enemy sites and bases before they can launch.

And that's the one area where NATO has so far refused to really give the Ukranians a lot of help in (beyond HARM missiles to let their existing MiG and drone fleet operate in areas where Russian air defences are active). 

Edited October 14, 2022 by renton

[welshbairn]

The neocon position.

Putin Must Go: Now Is The Time For Regime Change In Russia

[dorlomin]

26 minutes ago, jagfox said:

Will they draw a line with what they have and offer some kind of deal?

Will RU seek further mobilisation? But seem to lack basic equipment and training whereas UFA just got 10000 UK trained troops who will slot straight into or even lead offensive operations.

Or will the war just drag on until it reaches some kind of stalemate?

TL;DR What next? Are there any exit routes for Russia? At what point would UA consider negotiations to start or are they too far down the rabbit hole?

I believe the current Russian plan may be two hopes. 

1) European winter turns its people against the war. (Its long game plan for a while now).

2) The West hits stocking levels in their equipment where they feel they can no longer keep Ukraine supplied at the current rate with artillery and advanced ammunition systems, the war turns to being a more infantry dominated one. 

Wars are very dynamic where fortunes can change quickly. Sometimes the crazy hopes can come off. They are currently in deep and hoping for a miracle. 

I do think the mobilisation has been an unexpected disaster. I think they really did not realise how depleted their stocks of things like uniforms and rifles was. Watching Shoigu walk round a training ground where the soldiers did not have magazines in their rifles was really an eye opener. 

Russia's hopes for their best chance is to outlast the Wests will to support them. 

The two sides have a ticking clock on artillery supplies. Though on the Ukraine side its largely imposed by western general staffs minimal levels they set. I and many think this really is not reflective of the reality that Russia is the only real country we needed those stocks for (the other major threat, China is an air and sea battle. )

And winter is coming. It going to be about who has the better winter equipment. Note Ukraine's winters are not that crazy, it gets cold but its not Siberia. 

 

[jagfox]

Kerch Bridge repairs to be completed by July 2023.

 

[LongTimeLurker]

This seems like a very optimistic assessment:

 

[Melanius Mullarkey]

2 minutes ago, jagfox said:

Kerch Bridge repairs to be completed by July 2023.

 

Obviously not BEAR Scotland doing it. Would be 2093 if they were. 

[Billy Jean King]

Kerch Bridge repairs to be completed by July 2023.
 

Aye but will it come in on budget ?

[Mr Waldo]

3 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

 

I do think the mobilisation has been an unexpected disaster. I think they really did not realise how depleted their stocks of things like uniforms and rifles was. Watching Shoigu walk round a training ground where the soldiers did not have magazines in their rifles was really an eye opener. 

 

I thought that was in case one of them shot him.

[jagfox]

1 minute ago, dorlomin said:

I believe the current Russian plan may be two hopes. 

1) European winter turns its people against the war. (Its long game plan for a while now).

2) The West hits stocking levels in their equipment where they feel they can no longer keep Ukraine supplied at the current rate with artillery and advanced ammunition systems, the war turns to being a more infantry dominated one. 

Wars are very dynamic where fortunes can change quickly. Sometimes the crazy hopes can come off. They are currently in deep and hoping for a miracle. 

I do think the mobilisation has been an unexpected disaster. I think they really did not realise how depleted their stocks of things like uniforms and rifles was. Watching Shoigu walk round a training ground where the soldiers did not have magazines in their rifles was really an eye opener. 

Russia's hopes for their best chance is to outlast the Wests will to support them. 

The two sides have a ticking clock on artillery supplies. Though on the Ukraine side its largely imposed by western general staffs minimal levels they set. I and many think this really is not reflective of the reality that Russia is the only real country we needed those stocks for (the other major threat, China is an air and sea battle. )

And winter is coming. It going to be about who has the better winter equipment. Note Ukraine's winters are not that crazy, it gets cold but its not Siberia. 

 

Just read RU have around a 1/4 of their conventional missile capability compared with the start of the SMO.

I think Winter will slow operations to a degree. It is expected Kherson and the other side of the Dniepr could fall sooner rather than later. 

Could see a drop off in Western hardware of an offensive nature. 

Article I posted earlier suggests Russia pulled the energy plug too soon as some provisions have been made. Putin should have done it now rather than in the summer.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The neocon position.
Putin Must Go: Now Is The Time For Regime Change In Russia

Given Putin has weeded out opposition over the past two decades I think that is wishful thinking.

Any replacement is likely to be of a similar vein (or worse). We've seen regime changes in the past engineered by the US and they aren't exactly successful.

[welshbairn]

Just now, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Given Putin has weeded out opposition over the past two decades I think that is wishful thinking.

Any replacement is likely to be of a similar vein (or worse). We've seen regime changes in the past engineered by the US and they aren't exactly successful.

It's just Bolton playing up his hardman warrior reputation, it's clear that he doesn't have a clue how to make it happen other than praying that middle ranking officers will hatch something together. Just what Russia needs, a military junta.. 

[Bairnardo]

Given Putin has weeded out opposition over the past two decades I think that is wishful thinking.

Any replacement is likely to be of a similar vein (or worse). We've seen regime changes in the past engineered by the US and they aren't exactly successful.

Similar vein to Putin might accommodate an end to the war though. We all know that various Western countries and conglomerates will be back in bed with Russia just as soon as possible. And we also know that little will change in terms of Oligarchs hoovering up what they can for themselves at the expense of the Russian people. But it's Vladimir Putin himself that has to lose face in order to stop this war. Not Russia. A new guy might be a gangster and a crook, but how hard is it for a new guy to come in and simply say "I'm satisfied that the SMO is over now. Thanks for that Vlad, can we discuss those sanctions now?"

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Similar vein to Putin might accommodate an end to the war though. We all know that various Western countries and conglomerates will be back in bed with Russia just as soon as possible. And we also know that little will change in terms of Oligarchs hoovering up what they can for themselves at the expense of the Russian people. But it's Vladimir Putin himself that has to lose face in order to stop this war. Not Russia. A new guy might be a gangster and a crook, but how hard is it for a new guy to come in and simply say "I'm satisfied that the SMO is over now. Thanks for that Vlad, can we discuss those sanctions now?"

It's how you even get him out of power that's the real issue. Without military support it's difficult to see how he could be ousted. The only way I can see him going is either him dying (because of his reported cancer) or he decides to go himself - putting someone else in charge - but still pulling the strings from behind.

[Bairnardo]

51 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

 

 

It's how you even get him out of power that's the real issue. Without military support it's difficult to see how he could be ousted. The only way I can see him going is either him dying (because of his reported cancer) or he decides to go himself - putting someone else in charge - but still pulling the strings from behind.

 

Yeah, that might be the way of it if he himself decides to end the war. He can't afford to lose face. He also wouldn't be entertained in the aftermath by Western countries, and by Ukraine. Russia needs a new face even if it doesn't get a new brain, in order for the world to move on. Any lack of tangible change will take a back seat to "optics".