Russian invasion of Ukraine

[The Other Foot]

4 hours ago, Detournement said:

The Brexit line doesn't really work here as we still have lower inflation than most of the EU. 

The UK is fucked. The EU is fucked. The UK would still be fucked in the EU. 

One of the more bizarre things I’ve read on this forum.

Yes, the UK is fucked.
The EU is far from fucked. 

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

Iranian kamikaze drones are one example of Russia having an economic advantage in the war. A report from a Ukrainian monitoring organisation has said that the cost of all the drones used by Russia against Ukraine is $18m as opposed to the cost of the missiles Ukraine has used to shoot down the drones, which has been around $28m.

 

I'm quite surprised by those figures if true, I'd have thought the complexity and costs of missiles to shoot down fairly rudimentary attack drones or missiles would be far higher than that ratio would suggest. 

[jagfox]

 

[jagfox]

 

[Dev]

Reading that the brave Chechens have already (two-three days ago)departed the right bank of the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast. If true then the Russians won't have anyone left to shoot the conscripts. In turn there'll be nobody to force the conscripts to shoot the prisoner volunteers.

Maybe heading for a mass surrender, even including regular Russian military?

Reports that the locals in Mariupol have ripped down the Russian flags in the main square. That's not even on the right bank of the Dnipro ! 

[TommyDickFingers]

Addressing Putin’s Nuclear Threat: Thinking Like the Cold War KGB Officer That He Was

Good read, especially if you are concerned that Vladimir Vladimirovich is about to nuke the Black sea fishing fleet and NATO will go tonto in reply.

 

[Dev]

2 minutes ago, jagfox said:

 

It's a good job that it's OK to believe everything spoken in the Russian media.

Just hope that Putin is not really so crazy as to go nuclear.

[jagfox]

 

[jagfox]

1 minute ago, Dev said:

It's a good job that it's OK to believe everything spoken in the Russian media.

Just hope that Putin is not really so crazy as to go nuclear.

It could be his only way out as mooted earlier. 

Tactical nuke is detonated, NATO takes out Bkack Sea Fleet and other targets with conventional weapons.

Putin is seen to stand down to NATO rather than an embarrising defeat to Ukraine 

Obviously just one possible scenario.

 

[vikingTON]

37 minutes ago, TommyDickFingers said:

Addressing Putin’s Nuclear Threat: Thinking Like the Cold War KGB Officer That He Was

Good read, especially if you are concerned that Vladimir Vladimirovich is about to nuke the Black sea fishing fleet and NATO will go tonto in reply.

 

It's not a particularly insightful read though, when it contains nonsense like this:

Quote

In Putin’s mind, the rules of the post-World War II order were designed by an elitist West to restrain and humiliate his country (never mind that his country helped shape and long participated in that order and those rules), negating any obligation he has to respect them, or the words and treaties of his predecessors.

Putin was a perfectly ordinary functionary in the post-WW2 order. He was serving as a security agent in East Germany FFS when that order came to a close with the collapse of the Berlin Wall. It was never created by liberal democracies alone - the Cold War struggle was essential to the stability of that order. 

What Putin objects to is the post-1991  'order', which involved heedlessly rolling back Russia's borders to a 17th century version. Its resources were also comprehensively looted in the process (which explains the wider social conditions that enabled his regime) but Putin has risen to personally loot the Russian-based looters so let's not credit him with that concern. 

The idea that the war is about Russia challenging fucking Bretton Woods or even the Helsinki Final Act is utter nonsense. It is entirely a post-Soviet conflict. 

[TommyDickFingers]

12 minutes ago, virginton said:

It's not a particularly insightful read though, when it contains nonsense like this:

Putin was a perfectly ordinary functionary in the post-WW2 order. He was serving as a security agent in East Germany FFS when that order came to a close with the collapse of the Berlin Wall. It was never created by liberal democracies alone - the Cold War struggle was essential to the stability of that order. 

What Putin objects to is the post-1991  'order', which involved heedlessly rolling back Russia's borders to a 17th century version. Its resources were also comprehensively looted in the process (which explains the wider social conditions that enabled his regime) but Putin has risen to personally loot the Russian-based looters so let's not credit him with that concern. 

The idea that the war is about Russia challenging fucking Bretton Woods or even the Helsinki Final Act is utter nonsense. It is entirely a post-Soviet conflict. 

Maybe it's because i'm no expert on the subject but I found his take on the US Strategy for response very insightful which is why I posted it after reading the shite on here about nuking the black sea from *checks notes *the Sun amongst others.

Quote

What Putin objects to is the post-1991  'order', which involved heedlessly rolling back Russia's borders to a 17th century version. Its resources were also comprehensively looted in the process (which explains the wider social conditions that enabled his regime) but Putin has risen to personally loot the Russian

Can you suggest any literature on the above for me to digest before I send the decorated Russian-speaking CIA operations officer who spent much of his 34 year career pursuing and countering Russian intelligence officers of Putin’s era a strongly worded DM thats he's talking nonsense.

 

 

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, virginton said:

 What Putin objects to is the post-1991  'order', which involved heedlessly rolling back Russia's borders to a 17th century version. Its resources were also comprehensively looted in the process (which explains the wider social conditions that enabled his regime)…

Nope, not true. The ground areas of Russian SFSR (pre ‘91 component of USSR) and of Russia (post ‘91 component of CIS) are practically identical. The sundering of some SFSR’s, like Ukraine and the Baltic States, was hardly a rolling back of boundaries and looting of resources, as you suggest.

[vikingTON]

34 minutes ago, TommyDickFingers said:

Maybe it's because i'm no expert on the subject but I found his take on the US Strategy for response very insightful which is why I posted it after reading the shite on here about nuking the black sea from *checks notes *the Sun amongst others.

Can you suggest any literature on the above for me to digest before I send the decorated Russian-speaking CIA operations officer who spent much of his 34 year career pursuing and countering Russian intelligence officers of Putin’s era a strongly worded DM thats he's talking nonsense.

It doesn't really need literature to show how Putin was flourishing as an agent of the post WWII order. That's all in the public domain. 

The analytical question of what changed between 1988 and, say, 1998 - when Putin was being groomed as Yeltsin's successor - can be told by many sources. Although Adam Curtis' current TraumaZone series is a decent and visually jarring enough starting point. 

14 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Nope, not true. The ground areas of Russian SFSR (pre ‘91 component of USSR) and of Russia (post ‘91 component of CIS) are practically identical. The sundering of some SFSR’s, like Ukraine and the Baltic States, was hardly a rolling back of boundaries and looting of resources, as you suggest.

No, it is absolutely true. The current borders of Russia are quite clearly rolled back to a 17th century form. Crimea was annexed to Russia by Catherine the Great and the literal borderlands of the Ukraine were added even sooner than that under Peter the Great. They were not added as separate autonomous national republics either - that was a concession only granted following the October Revolution in 1917. Before then, Russification of pretty much the whole Tsarist territory was official government policy. 

The historical illiteracy of people who think that Nikita Khrushchev's random switches of a pen could undo hundreds of years of history has contributed to this folly. 

And the internal wealth of Russia was absolutely looted, aided by the most rancid Ayn Rand style, hyper-capitalist nonsense ideas advocated by American economists who didn't have the leverage to try it out on their own people. Putin doesn't really give a shit about that, but for an American to wash your country's hands of responsibility is utterly risible. 

Edited October 20, 2022 by vikingTON

[TxRover]

Just now, virginton said:

 No, it is absolutely true. The current borders of Russia are quite clearly rolled back to a 17th century form. Crimea was annexed to Russia by Catherine the Great and the literal borderlands of the Ukraine were added even sooner than that under Peter the Great. They were not added as separate autonomous national republics either - that was a concession only granted following the October Revolution in 1917. Before then, Russification of pretty much the whole Tsarist territory was official government policy. 

The historical illiteracy of people who think that Nikita Khrushchev's random switches of a pen could undo hundreds of years of history has contributed to this folly. 

1917 boundary changes are invalid…best get the Taoiseach on the blower…

[welshbairn]

It's really about time Vienna started asserting its influence over Central and Eastern Europe again.

[ICTChris]

Russian troops are reportedly leaving Energodar, the city closest to the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant.

Seems odd but could be in preparation for a blow up of various dams across the Dnipro river.

[welshbairn]

 

[Billy Jean King]

Has Detournment claimed the Shetland cable damage for Russia yet ???

[welshbairn]

We might find out the reason for Ben Wallace's rush to Washington earlier, he's making a statement to the House some time after 10.30.

[Sergeant Wilson]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

It's really about time Vienna started asserting its influence over Central and Eastern Europe again.

They've said nothing...a cool empty silence.