Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Cosmic Joe]

1 hour ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Seriously, how do you know this kind of stuff?

I'm kind of guessing he took his civil service stuff a bit more seriously than us*.

 

*In my case, turned up without fail to give out dole money to unemployed folk in the mid 1980s in Fife. I hardly ever let anyone down. 

 

 

[TxRover]

6 hours ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Seriously, how do you know this kind of stuff?

Well, if you look at the location they show the “attack”, and notice a major highway next to the location, you might look further. Looking at that major highway, you see it comes off the bridge and moves through some marshes before joining another semi-major roadway (P57) which loops around to the southwest while the E97 heads into Crimea. Now, since Crimea is a major Russian “goal”, they can’t ignore any threat to it…and if the Ukrainians drive down the E97 toward Crimea, it would isolate any a Russian forces to the west of that roadway. All that makes it pretty important to keep the Ukrainians north of the marshes.

Warfare is, as you should know, all about supplies. Controlling them, blocking them, capturing them and destroying them.

Edited to add this from the Institute for the Study of War 22 April Update:

“Russian milbloggers have provided enough geolocated footage and textual reports to confirm that Ukrainian forces have established positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast as of April 22 though not at what scale or with what intentions. Geolocated footage published by a Russian milblogger on April 22 shows that Ukrainian forces have established positions on the Dnipro River bank north of Oleshky (7km southwest of Kherson City) and advanced up to the northern outskirts of the settlement on the E97 highway, as well as west of Dachi (10km south of Kherson City).[1] This footage also indicates that Russian forces may not control islands in the Kinka and Chaika rivers less than half a kilometer north of the geolocated Ukrainian positions near the Antonivsky Bridge. Russian milbloggers claimed on April 20 and 22 that Ukrainian forces have maintained positions in east bank Kherson Oblast for weeks, established stable supply lines to these positions, and regularly conduct sorties in the area—all indicating a lack of Russian control over the area.[2] Another milblogger’s battle map claimed that Russian forces do not control some Dnipro River delta islands southwest of Kherson City as of April 22, suggesting possible Ukrainian advances on these islands.[3] Some milbloggers complained that the slow rate of Russian artillery fire due to the over-centralization of the Russian military command allowed Ukrainian forces to land on the east bank.[4] Russian forces may be prioritizing maintaining defenses in urban areas such as Oleshky and Nova Kakhovka, leaving the islands in the Dnipro River delta unmanned. The extent and intent of these Ukrainian positions remain unclear, as does Ukraine’s ability and willingness to maintain sustained positions in this area. ISW is recoding territory on the east bank of the Dnipro River to Ukrainian-held only now because this is the first time ISW has observed reliable geolocated imagery of Ukrainian positions on the east bank along with multi-sourced Russian reports of an enduring Ukrainian presence there.”

Edited April 24, 2023 by TxRover

[TxRover]

Latest ISW assessment suggests a reason for Ukraine’s push down the E97. It’s reported that conscripts from this years Spring callup are already appearing in defensive positions in Crimea, likely to allow diversion of more seasoned troops to the Eastern Ukraine offensive. However, this would mean that a Ukrainian breakout to the south/southeast from Duchi down the E97 would threaten Crimea, and it’s raw conscript defenders.

It is also reported that Putin is now refusing to accept advisors suggestions to move to a more defensive posture, a lot like old Adolf.

[highlandmac]

3 hours ago, TxRover said:

 

It is also reported that Putin is now refusing to accept advisors suggestions to move to a more defensive posture, a lot like old Adolf.

What could possibly go wrong for him with that?

[ICTChris]

Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol took some hits from drone strikes last night.

 

 

[TxRover]

New Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Campaign Assessment Special Report for 23 April…doesn’t sound good for Vlad:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-23-2023

[LongTimeLurker]

On 23/04/2023 at 21:19, TxRover said:

Well, if you look at the location they show the “attack”, and notice a major highway next to the location, you might look further. Looking at that major highway, ...

Do the Ukrainians have the ability to run ferries across the Dniepr like the Russians did after the Antonivka bridge became unusable or can they complete the crossing of barges next to it that the Russians tried to build?

If not what do the Ukrainians have available on the left bank of the Dniepr that would enable them to drive down that highway?

[TxRover]

4 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Do the Ukrainians have the ability to run ferries across the Dniepr like the Russians did after the Antonivka bridge became unusable or can they complete the crossing of barges next to it that the Russians tried to build?

If not what do the Ukrainians have available on the left bank of the Dniepr that would enable them to drive down that highway?

The reports say they’ve been there several weeks and have an established supply chain. The Russian defences in the area are thrown together conscripted and the remains of destroyed units, with little artillery support and poor leasdership. They are set up to defend in depth, but lack the numbers to man multiple lines, and so will need to fallback to the next line in good order…a tall order for untrained rabble.

Not sure they’ll need that much in the way of armour to push down the E97, but since they likely have been using the Dnipro delta area to the west to transport supplies, they could have some stuff on the south bank already because of all the cover offered in that area.

[ICTChris]

It’s like Facebook boomers saying “we grew up with no central heating and loved it” but with Stalinism.

[TxRover]

Sentenced for violating the law on public disparagement of the war because the phone calls he made the complaints on were wiretapped and listened to…

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-convicts-police-officer-ukraine-war-criticism-98822533

[Guest]

4 hours ago, TxRover said:

Sentenced for violating the law on public disparagement of the war because the phone calls he made the complaints on were wiretapped and listened to…

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-convicts-police-officer-ukraine-war-criticism-98822533

When you see the level of surveillance the state security services undertake, it makes it very unlikely a Russian-based militant opposition movement could arise. Yet the National Republican Army is alleged to be that. They supposedly claimed responsibility for the Darya Dugina and Vladlen Tatarsky assassinations. It seems more likely they don't exist and the state did those assassinations. If there was a militant opposition movement it wouldn't prioritise loudmouthed but relatively powerless non-state targets like Dugin and Tatarsky. 

[Todd_is_God]

6 hours ago, FreedomFarter said:

When you see the level of surveillance the state security services undertake, it makes it very unlikely a Russian-based militant opposition movement could arise

A serious militant opposition movement would not communicate over an open phone line all the same.

[itzdrk]

9 hours ago, FreedomFarter said:

When you see the level of surveillance the state security services undertake, it makes it very unlikely a Russian-based militant opposition movement could arise. Yet the National Republican Army is alleged to be that. They supposedly claimed responsibility for the Darya Dugina and Vladlen Tatarsky assassinations. It seems more likely they don't exist and the state did those assassinations. If there was a militant opposition movement it wouldn't prioritise loudmouthed but relatively powerless non-state targets like Dugin and Tatarsky. 

 

[Sergeant Wilson]

The Sun says Putin has deployed invisible robo tanks. Which will make it even harder to tell which is a tank and which isn't.

 

 

 

I'm not sure it's true though because there's a picture and I'm fairly sure I can see the tank.

 

 

 

 

 

[itzdrk]

12 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

The Sun says Putin has deployed invisible robo tanks. Which will make it even harder to tell which is a tank and which isn't.

 

 

 

I'm not sure it's true though because there's a picture and I'm fairly sure I can see the tank.

 

 

 

 

 

The tank is blue and black. 

[TxRover]

4 hours ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

The Sun says Putin has deployed invisible robo tanks. Which will make it even harder to tell which is a tank and which isn't.

 

 

 

I'm not sure it's true though because there's a picture and I'm fairly sure I can see the tank.

 

 

 

 

 

Let’s see:

“100 rounds per minute”…OK, 45 rounds carried, with 32 in the autoloader…it’s out of ammo in 15-20 seconds.

”robo”…the crew is in the hull, the turret is unmanned…amazing. The fully autonomous version is in testing, whoops.

”invisible”…to radar…haven’t seen a lot of Ukrainians peering into a radar display.

”increased side protection”…really, given the problem is top attack munitions…nice, not!

There are perhaps 100 available, probably less due to autoloader problems. The U.S. would love a couple.

[Sergeant Wilson]

1 hour ago, TxRover said:

Let’s see:

“100 rounds per minute”…OK, 45 rounds carried, with 32 in the autoloader…it’s out of ammo in 15-20 seconds.

”robo”…the crew is in the hull, the turret is unmanned…amazing. The fully autonomous version is in testing, whoops.

”invisible”…to radar…haven’t seen a lot of Ukrainians peering into a radar display.

”increased side protection”…really, given the problem is top attack munitions…nice, not!

There are perhaps 100 available, probably less due to autoloader problems. The U.S. would love a couple.

Aye, but apart from that...

[vikingTON]

On 25/03/2023 at 19:43, virginton said:

 

On 26/03/2023 at 17:56, TxRover said:

They’ve proposed letting the aggressor keep territory, and you wonder why it’s rejected outright…you’re deluded.

 

On 26/03/2023 at 18:04, virginton said:

Rejected outright by whom?

 

On 26/03/2023 at 18:21, TxRover said:

Ukraine. They stated that the portion of the Chinese outline proposal possibly involving ceding territory is unacceptable. That’s a rejection. Meanwhile, you missed a red dot above…it’s amusing how you suggest people are upset while you show you are.

 

On 26/03/2023 at 18:28, virginton said:

Erm no. Ukraine clearly did not 'outright reject' China at all:

It may suit NATO's current Sinophobic hysteria to claim that everyone is in lockstep agreement, but both parties in the conflict are demonstrably open to China's role in mediation. They're both miles apart in terms of their demands - that's how every mediation process starts.

The reality is that the West can't find a single point in China's actual proposal for peace that it can objects to on the grounds of international law. And has proposed no solution to the conflict of its own. 

 

On 26/03/2023 at 18:54, TxRover said:

I agree…but they suggested a ceding of territory, which Ukraine has rightly rejected, despite appeasers like VT suggesting otherwise. Awaiting another red dot and hysterical response.

Ukraine rightly rejecting peace overtures by pesky China indeed:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/26/chinese-president-xi-jinping-to-send-peace-talks-delegation-to-ukraine

It's almost as if the rest of the world doesn't quite conform to the 'Cold War for preschoolers' view of the world peddled by America and its vassal states. 

[TxRover]

36 minutes ago, virginton said:

 

 

 

 

 

Ukraine rightly rejecting peace overtures by pesky China indeed:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/26/chinese-president-xi-jinping-to-send-peace-talks-delegation-to-ukraine

It's almost as if the rest of the world doesn't quite conform to the 'Cold War for preschoolers' view of the world peddled by America and its vassal states. 

It’s almost as though you failed to read the whole story, as it notes there are questions about how China categorizes the Crimea and other areas occupied in 2014 and annexed recently. The clown is back, indeed.

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, TxRover said:

It’s almost as though you failed to read the whole story, as it notes there are questions about how China categorizes the Crimea and other areas occupied in 2014 and annexed recently. The clown is back, indeed.

You obviously don't understand how to read for the sake of comprehension, because 'questions' is not the same as your laughably false claim that:

On 26/03/2023 at 17:56, TxRover said:

They’ve proposed letting the aggressor keep territory, and you wonder why it’s rejected outright…you’re deluded.

Deluded indeed.