Russian invasion of Ukraine

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

Ukraine has come out and said that they don't know anything about the attack.

Here's another video of the drone being shot down.

 

 

The whole “Kremlin attack” is a bit bizarre. The item in question certainly appears to be a few feet long and out of control, maneuvering much like a helicopter with a loss of tail rotor control (i.e. spinning gyroscopically). The size of the explosion seems to indicate a flammable fuel supply, with a reasonable amount left, so a small, conventionally powered drone is the likely item, which puts direct flight from Ukraine into the very improbable category.

It certainly ups the possibility of a false flag attack, and also asks the question of was it actually shot down? A missile intercept that low isn’t really possible (most radar systems have an absolute lower limit around 50-100m due to ground clutter, while an infrared system fired that low and that close to a building in a major city is very unlikely), while a kinetic defence system (gun or similar) would be positioned on the outskirts of Moscow due to the risks of expended ammunition returning to earth within a city. A laser point defence system is an interesting possibility, but the intercept was low and late if that was the case.

There are too many convenient factors here…but…

[TxRover]

5 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Russia hasn't flattened major cities in Ukraine for a number of reasons, none of which are the lack of an excuse.  Kyiv is heavily defended by air defence, as can be seen by the success they regularly have against Russian missile barrages.  Yesterday they fired 23 Shahad drones at Kyiv and every single one was shot down.  There are missiles that the Russians could use that Ukraine can't intercept but these are very limited in number.  

So if Russia decided to launch a significant air campaign against Ukrainian cities there would be a number of consequences - they would lose more aircraft and pilots, the most expensive equipment and most highly trained personnell the Russian armed forces have; they would have to divert air power to this campaign away from the front line; it would expend ammunition that could be used elsewhere; increased use of air power could make Ukraine's allies more likely to provide fighter jets to combat them.

I imagine that there will be a barrage of missiles heading towards Ukrainian cities very soon, doubtless killing civilians.  

Russia can’t strike Kyiv with bombers used other than as carrier for stand-off cruise missiles, simply because of the Ukrainian air defences. Kharkiv is doable, as so called glide-bombs could be launched from far enough away from the air defences, but to hit Kyiv the same way would, as you note, be suicidal. The Russian missiles have proven to be, on the whole, inaccurate and the Iranian drones are much more accurate but easily intercepted…as long as the Ukrainians have missile for their defence systems.

I actually have doubts about the Russian ability to significantly strike Ukrainian targets on any sustained basis due to supply issues, ones that mirror the defenders issue. If this “Kremlin attack” is some form of false flag, it begs the question of what is the end game for the provocation? Is Putin considering using something else….

[sparky88]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

Russia hasn't flattened major cities in Ukraine for a number of reasons, none of which are the lack of an excuse.  Kyiv is heavily defended by air defence, as can be seen by the success they regularly have against Russian missile barrages.  Yesterday they fired 23 Shahad drones at Kyiv and every single one was shot down.  There are missiles that the Russians could use that Ukraine can't intercept but these are very limited in number.  

So if Russia decided to launch a significant air campaign against Ukrainian cities there would be a number of consequences - they would lose more aircraft and pilots, the most expensive equipment and most highly trained personnell the Russian armed forces have; they would have to divert air power to this campaign away from the front line; it would expend ammunition that could be used elsewhere; increased use of air power could make Ukraine's allies more likely to provide fighter jets to combat them.

I imagine that there will be a barrage of missiles heading towards Ukrainian cities very soon, doubtless killing civilians.  

Both sides would love to use more air power, but one of the stories of the war has been the success of defensive ground to air weaponry. As devastating as the Russian attacks have been on Ukraine, relatively few missiles seem to be hitting their targets, having been shot down. 

Is it not a bit obvious that this is a false flag? 

[jagfox]

 

[Newbornbairn]

Remember when the Russians sent Spetznaz squads to assassinate Zelensky in the early days of the war? 

[Newbornbairn]

4 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Two drones appear to have hit the Kremlin last night. Russian state sources describing it as a terrorist act and an attempt on Putin’s life.

Some footage of the strikes from a neighbourhood webcam.

 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

It's absolutely epic that they managed to bounce a drone off the Kremlin's roof. Not buying the denials for a minute as this will be about getting them to cancel their big Victory Day parade in Red Square. The last time I was in Moscow a Ukrainian I know with Russian citizenship took me to a Ukrainian restaurant that was only a few hundred yards from where this happened. Sad what Vlad has done to Russia because there was a time not so long ago that this war would have been completely unthinkable, particularly for the older generation that grew up under Brezhnev in what in my experience they still tend to view as being a better time:

 

[The Other Foot]

Good. But next time, kill the c**t. 

[ICTChris]

Guardian article about the fighting in the Dnipro Delta near Kherson.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/03/fight-ukrainian-river-battle-dnipro-delta-kherson
 

Regarding the Kremlin drone attack being a false flag, maybe it is but seems a very strange tactic. To hit the Kremlin with two drones indicates incompetence and failure by Russia. The Russians have already thrown their entire conventional arsenal to this war, they’ve already mobilised civilians, they don’t need an excuse to use anything. 

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

Guardian article about the fighting in the Dnipro Delta near Kherson.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/03/fight-ukrainian-river-battle-dnipro-delta-kherson
 

Regarding the Kremlin drone attack being a false flag, maybe it is but seems a very strange tactic. To hit the Kremlin with two drones indicates incompetence and failure by Russia. The Russians have already thrown their entire conventional arsenal to this war, they’ve already mobilised civilians, they don’t need an excuse to use anything. 

I can think of an excuse needed to use something in their arsenal. 

 

[TxRover]

1 minute ago, virginton said:

I can think of an excuse needed to use something in their arsenal. 

That is my concern on this…the general type of aerial vehicle that appears in the grainy footage wouldn’t have the range to fly from Ukraine. That’s hardly conclusive, but if Putin is worried about the rumoured Ukrainian counteroffensive and his miliatry problems, we can’t rule out use of something. The open question is would the Russians use chemical weapons, or straight to tactical nukes?

2 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

It's absolutely epic that they managed to bounce a drone off the Kremlin's roof. Not buying the denials for a minute as this will be about getting them to cancel their big Victory Day parade in Red Square. The last time I was in Moscow a Ukrainian I know with Russian citizenship took me to a Ukrainian restaurant that was only a few hundred yards from where this happened. Sad what Vlad has done to Russia because there was a time not so long ago that this war would have been completely unthinkable, particularly for the older generation that grew up under Brezhnev in what in my experience they still tend to view as being a better time:

 

Say what you will, despite the turgid lyrics, that is a pretty solid piece of music for an anthem.

[LongTimeLurker]

2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Regarding the Kremlin drone attack being a false flag, maybe it is but seems a very strange tactic. To hit the Kremlin with two drones indicates incompetence and failure by Russia. The Russians have already thrown their entire conventional arsenal to this war, they’ve already mobilised civilians, they don’t need an excuse to use anything. 

The level of embarrasment of having a Ukrainian drone almost knock the flag off the top of the Kremlin should not be underestimated. This has usually been the main symbol of Russian/Soviet state power down through the centuries:

 

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

The level of embarrasment of having a Ukrainian drone almost knock the flag off the top of the Kremlin should not be underestimated. This has usually been the main symbol of Russian/Soviet state power down through the centuries:

 

The level of outrage they can try to drum up with this “attack” is equally not to be underestimated. Remember, Russian control of news and stories is pretty complete, even the internet isn’t immune to tampering there with the various gatekeeper systems and big tech often kowtowing to Russian demands to limit things. They can play up the attack stuff and sweep the questions and denials under the rug. The older folks will buy it, they aren’t going to be drafted, so they’ll squeal for action.

[Dev]

NewsNow has picked up an article in something named "The New Voice of Ukraine" with this headline:

"IAEA Inspectors Find Explosives at Russia-occupied ZNPP"

NewsNow also found this covered by Ukrainska Pravda:

"Russians are storing explosives at Zaporizhia Nuclear Plant"

There is the risk that Russia will attempt to destroy what it cannot have/ A nuclear plant and explosives are not a good mix.

 

[RandomGuy.]

13 hours ago, Newbornbairn said:

Remember when the Russians sent Spetznaz squads to assassinate Zelensky in the early days of the war? 

This is, apparently, one the outcomes of the "attack" on Putin last night.

It means they have an excuse to try and assassinate him again. If hes now killed, either in Ukraine or elsewhere, they can claim it was just retaliation.

[Stellaboz]

For one thing, it's clearly not an attempt to assassinate anyone. So we can through that straight in the bin.

[RandomGuy.]

34 minutes ago, Stellaboz said:

For one thing, it's clearly not an attempt to assassinate anyone. So we can through that straight in the bin.

Aye its just an explanation for a "false flag" operation that ive seen that seems more believable than them wanting to start using nukes.

Most boring explanation is a Ukranian celebrity challenged fans to land a drone at the Kremlin during some Russian celebrations soon, and this was a practice attempt by someone that went wrong.

[ICTChris]

More drone attacks on Russian fuel depots near the border.  I think that at least four refineries have been attacked in the last few days, in addition to the fuel train and the attack on fuel storage tanks in Crimea.

 

 

[Newbornbairn]

 

Top trolling from the Ukrainians 

[Dev]

17 hours ago, Dev said:

NewsNow has picked up an article in something named "The New Voice of Ukraine" with this headline:

"IAEA Inspectors Find Explosives at Russia-occupied ZNPP"

NewsNow also found this covered by Ukrainska Pravda:

"Russians are storing explosives at Zaporizhia Nuclear Plant"

There is the risk that Russia will attempt to destroy what it cannot have/ A nuclear plant and explosives are not a good mix.

 

Now also picked up by Newsweek:

"Disaster Fears After Explosives Found Inside Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant"