Russian invasion of Ukraine

[ICTChris]

UK to provide long range missiles to Ukraine.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/08/britain-ukraine-long-range-missile/

[ICTChris]

The Russian victory day parade features one tank.

 

[Sergeant Wilson]

The power of Pie and Bovril learning. This time a year ago I'd have said about half a dozen of those were tanks.

 

 

 

 

[ICTChris]

A Russian military training facility in Voronezh has been hit by a Ukrainian drone, reports of 14 injured.

Also overnight various sources have said that Ukraine has retaken a chunk of Bakhmut with a Russian MoD assault brigade being destroyed.

[LongTimeLurker]

 

Bad news for anyone who uses the Kerch Bridge regularly basically.

[ICTChris]

ETA - a mashup of Pirgozhin commentary and combat footage from the Ukrainian counter attack in Bakhmut.  I'll put in spoilers because there are some shots of dead soldiers and quite a lot of swearing and slurs.  For some reason, maybe explicit content, it won't embed

 

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1656064355539058688?s=20

 

Edited May 10, 2023 by ICTChris

[Nkomo-A-Gogo]

14 hours ago, ICTChris said:

A Russian military training facility in Voronezh has been hit by a Ukrainian drone, reports of 14 injured.

Also overnight various sources have said that Ukraine has retaken a chunk of Bakhmut with a Russian MoD assault brigade being destroyed.

 

[ICTChris]

On 09/05/2023 at 09:42, ICTChris said:

UK to provide long range missiles to Ukraine.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/08/britain-ukraine-long-range-missile/

News today seems to say that these have been delivered to Ukraine already and are ready to use.

[renton]

42 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

News today seems to say that these have been delivered to Ukraine already and are ready to use.

There were rumours of integration trials on Ukraine's Russian built fast jets some time ago. I don't think they will be trying to ground launch these. Means you won't be seeing mass waves of these given the likely size of Ukraine's remaining airforce.

Having said that there was a concept that the US had been playing with where you use a cargo plane with a rear hatch. Have a dozen or so long range stand off missiles on a pallet that gets pulled out the back by parachute. Missiles deploy in the air: instant missile swarm.

[LongTimeLurker]

 

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, renton said:

There were rumours of integration trials on Ukraine's Russian built fast jets some time ago. I don't think they will be trying to ground launch these. Means you won't be seeing mass waves of these given the likely size of Ukraine's remaining airforce.

Having said that there was a concept that the US had been playing with where you use a cargo plane with a rear hatch. Have a dozen or so long range stand off missiles on a pallet that gets pulled out the back by parachute. Missiles deploy in the air: instant missile swarm.

It’s actually production system called Rapid Dragon. It currently uses AGM-158 JASSM-ER cruise missiles in between 4 and 45 missile packs that are released out the back of a C-130 or C-17, deploy chutes and launch the missiles. With the range of those (570 to 1,200 miles), there’s no way Washington will release Rapid Dragon to Ukraine, however, the simple existence of this system might encourage Ukrainian engineers to try to work out something. It would only work with a non-ballistic missile system, due to needing to launch, stabilize, guide and strike, but Ukraine has such weapons…however, an air launch unit like this would offer Ukraine no advantage as a truck mounted launcher can get further forward than an unarmed cargo plane.as such, their engineers will be working on other things.

Storm Shadow, with a 350 mile range is much more useful to Ukraine without threatening Moscow as much. While it is an air-to-ground system, there were some ground launch trials, and again ground launching is possibly better option for Ukraine.

[renton]

15 minutes ago, TxRover said:

It’s actually production system called Rapid Dragon. It currently uses AGM-158 JASSM-ER cruise missiles in between 4 and 45 missile packs that are released out the back of a C-130 or C-17, deploy chutes and launch the missiles. With the range of those (570 to 1,200 miles), there’s no way Washington will release Rapid Dragon to Ukraine, however, the simple existence of this system might encourage Ukrainian engineers to try to work out something. It would only work with a non-ballistic missile system, due to needing to launch, stabilize, guide and strike, but Ukraine has such weapons…however, an air launch unit like this would offer Ukraine no advantage as a truck mounted launcher can get further forward than an unarmed cargo plane.as such, their engineers will be working on other things.

Storm Shadow, with a 350 mile range is much more useful to Ukraine without threatening Moscow as much. While it is an air-to-ground system, there were some ground launch trials, and again ground launching is possibly better option for Ukraine.

Not if they want the range it isn't.

[TxRover]

5 minutes ago, renton said:

Not if they want the range it isn't.

As I noted, ground launch is the way to go for Ukraine to get maximum range. I doubt a Ukrainian aircraft could get close then 200 miles from the front line at altitude without serious risk for loss (S-400 has a range of 236 miles). A truck mounted missile could easily get closer at lower risk, and every mile closer is a mile deeper behind Russian lines. Also, Ukraine can’t engineer a JASSM quickly, so they aren’t getting and “range” via air launch they can’t better off a truck.

[Newbornbairn]

They've been modifying SU24s in Poland to take Storm Shadow since November, apparently. 

[renton]

54 minutes ago, TxRover said:

As I noted, ground launch is the way to go for Ukraine to get maximum range. I doubt a Ukrainian aircraft could get close then 200 miles from the front line at altitude without serious risk for loss (S-400 has a range of 236 miles). A truck mounted missile could easily get closer at lower risk, and every mile closer is a mile deeper behind Russian lines. Also, Ukraine can’t engineer a JASSM quickly, so they aren’t getting and “range” via air launch they can’t better off a truck.

Any missile not optimised for ground launch is going to throw away a lot of energy getting up to it's flight profile. Granted a turbojet is different from an un-throttled rocket but Brimstone apparently has a 10-15km range from ground launch, 25km from a helicopter and 48 to 60km from a fast jet.

If you even half the range of Storm Shadow by ground launch it no longer looks that useful versus their current GMLRS. They want it specifically because of the max range, which would surely imply air launch (not to mention not having to redo a lot of the flight software to get it safely launched from ground)

[Sergeant Wilson]

I hope there's some Ukrainians know this stuff or there's very detailed instructions.

 

 

 

 

 

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, renton said:

Any missile not optimised for ground launch is going to throw away a lot of energy getting up to it's flight profile. Granted a turbojet is different from an un-throttled rocket but Brimstone apparently has a 10-15km range from ground launch, 25km from a helicopter and 48 to 60km from a fast jet.

If you even half the range of Storm Shadow by ground launch it no longer looks that useful versus their current GMLRS. They want it specifically because of the max range, which would surely imply air launch (not to mention not having to redo a lot of the flight software to get it safely launched from ground)

Storm Shadow’s flight profile is Lo-Lo, so a high launch simply makes the missile more vulnerable until launch.

1 hour ago, Newbornbairn said:

They've been modifying SU24s in Poland to take Storm Shadow since November, apparently. 

That makes sense, as the SU-24’s variable geometry allows it to get in low and slow below the radar horizon and launch from close to the frontlines.

[renton]

2 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Storm Shadow’s flight profile is Lo-Lo, so a high launch simply makes the missile more vulnerable until launch.

That makes sense, as the SU-24’s variable geometry allows it to get in low and slow below the radar horizon and launch from close to the frontlines.

That doesn't negate the basic principle. Ground launching an air to ground missile massively reduces range. 

[ICTChris]

insane footage - Russian surrenders to a drone, which drops instructions then guides him while his comrades fire mortars and shoot at him.

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, renton said:

That doesn't negate the basic principle. Ground launching an air to ground missile massively reduces range. 

It reduces range a little, not massively. As the Storm Shadow/Scalp flies a Lo-Lo profile, there is very little altitude to gain, just velocity to reach vs air launch. The French already solved that with a booster for their ship and sub launched versions (MdCN) of the Storm Shadow, it gets the missile to speed and drops off. The open discussion is about a 135-155 mile range, suggesting the export version (Black Shaheen)…but as the UK only has the full version, perhaps they are pulling from stocks of export weapons that haven’t been delivered yet. Best estimate on range penalty would be negligible as a booster would be necessary…but that’s why they are modifying the SU-24’s, so they don’t have to get boosters from French or reverse engineer them.

The Russians only use air launched cruise missiles that can be launched from more than 200 miles from the front lines (most are being launched over the Caspian Sea) to avoid the risk of the loss of bombers, which is why I was wondering if the Ukrainians might try ground launch.