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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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Just now, ClydeTon said:

He can't go anywhere that is an ICC (International Criminal Court) member. The ICC has a binding warrant against him. If he sets foot in any member state he'll be in the Hague within a week.

Presumably he would be doing deals before setting foot in any other country. The question is, what would he have to offer.....

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Just now, Bairnardo said:

Presumably he would be doing deals before setting foot in any other country. The question is, what would he have to offer.....

Ukraine.

Limited Time offer, so they best act fast before it's gone!

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3 minutes ago, ClydeTon said:

He can't go anywhere that is an ICC (International Criminal Court) member. The ICC has a binding warrant against him. If he sets foot in any member state he'll be in the Hague within a week.

2 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Presumably he would be doing deals before setting foot in any other country. The question is, what would he have to offer.....

Exactly, better a live, deposed despot than a dead one, ask Ghaddafi.

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5 minutes ago, TxRover said:

The real thing there is does Putin dare order a strike on the Wagner column? If he orders the strike and the pilots or commanders refuse, it's curtains. He needs to figure out what units he can trust before he can order actions like that, since there seem to be defections. Putin at the Norwegian border, asking for entry, is a really interesting thing to contemplate...Finland is another possibility, but the Baltics he wouldn't even think of trying. Turkey would be preferred, but thats more difficult to get to now.

I suspect that airstrikes aren't that risky; Air forces tend to come from the more elitist sectors of society, and less likely to throw their lot in with a bunch of crooks with guns (not that they wouldn't form a coup, but they'd prefer a better class of golpista to sign up with).

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5 minutes ago, AyrshireTon said:

My father landed in Turkey yesterday and is staying for a week, so it can't be that difficult.

Is your father someone that a PMC is likely to want dead, a PMC that has friends with fighters and missiles?

2 minutes ago, Highlandmagar said:

Turkey?

Correct, not a member of the ICC.

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2 minutes ago, Aim Here said:

I suspect that airstrikes aren't that risky; Air forces tend to come from the more elitist sectors of society, and less likely to throw their lot in with a bunch of crooks with guns (not that they wouldn't form a coup, but they'd prefer a better class of golpista to sign up with).

Until the pilots hear about the helos shot down attempting attacks. High altitude attacks, sure…low altitude, which is the effective type, not so much.

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4 minutes ago, Highlandmagar said:

Turkey?

He could go there:

1280px-ICC_member_states_svg.thumb.png.46d49e44bddb7e1561cca74c2445e99c.png

He's safe to enter the orange & red, as far as the ICC is concerned.

And yes, Putin would legally be able to enter the US (unless they arrest them under their own laws)

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Many of you know that I have a very close personal connection to Ukraine so I am I am very much enjoying seeing Putin's army fighting with the mercenary army comprised in part of people who Putin had put in jail for not supporting him. This is a welcome distraction for Ukraine

 

Jelly and Ice Cream time?

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4 minutes ago, ClydeTon said:

He could go there:

1280px-ICC_member_states_svg.thumb.png.46d49e44bddb7e1561cca74c2445e99c.png

He's safe to enter the orange & red, as far as the ICC is concerned.

And yes, Putin would legally be able to enter the US (unless they arrest them under their own laws)

You could just imagine this if Donny was in charge. In through the back door.

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Just because a plane Putin uses sometimes was spotted flying west doesn't mean he was on it, same as Lukashenko's and his family supposedly skedaddling to Turkey. Safest place for him is in the Kremlin. 

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This is eerily reminiscent to me of the fall of the Berlin Wall…much like now, the news updates were hopelessly out of date by the time they were reported due to how quickly things changed. Even with the faster updates now, the situation is remarkably fluid.

 

Regardless of how this resolves itself, Putin has been seriously weakened, and the Russian campaign in Ukraine is likely at an end in terms of offensive threat…the impact on the defensive is more nuanced. If the Ukrainians are smart, they will take advantage of the mess to offer generous surrender terms to Russian and DPR/LPR troops.

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2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Just because a plane Putin uses sometimes was spotted flying west doesn't mean he was on it, same as Lukashenko's and his family supposedly skedaddling to Turkey. Safest place for him is in the Kremlin. 

Disagree. The military and the FSB jointly control Moscow, and then would control Putin if they changed sides. On his plane it’s his handpicked guards only. Take the plane to a retreat with a runway…expect that a loyalist in the military or FSB will get you word if they roll over and are moving to grab you, and be ready to bolt.

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19 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Presumably he would be doing deals before setting foot in any other country. The question is, what would he have to offer.....

Not much, other than calling in a few favours.    Places lke Saudi seem to welcome deposed dictators and the like. 

I did wonder if Lukashenko stopping his plane at Moscow was to offer Putin a lift.

I guess he must have refused.  

"Whaaaaat ?  Spend the rest of my life in some desert shithole, drinking from a dried up wadi,

not a drop of vodka in sight. No fanks....".

 

There's always his chum Assad in Syria, I suppose..?

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