End game / Predictions thread.

[Granny Danger]

17 minutes ago, Brother Blades said:

Which factors am I ignoring? 

I’ll highlight two key ones, there may be others.

Firstly, the political landscape has changed significantly since the 2010 General Election.  The Lib Dems have not changed much ideologically but the post Brexit, post Johnson, post Trump Conservative Party is a completely different animal.  I could see the Lib Dems thinking they could work with an apparently moderate David Cameron, they would be unable to work with a zealot like Truss.  

Secondly, the Lib Dems are still paying the price for their folly.  In 2010 they got 23% of the popular vote and won 57 seats,  in 2015 they lost 49 of these seats and saw that vote share drop to less than 8%.  They’ve still not recovered from that and saw their percentage vote drop further in 2017 and only recover slightly in 2019.  They’re currently polling about 11% still way below where they were when they entered into a coalition with the Tories.

Even if the Lib Dem Parliamentary leadership were in favour of propping up a Truss led Tory government I think individual MPs would refuse to support it and the rank and file membership who came close to open revolt in 2010 would totally fragment.

 

[Benjamin_Nevis]

7 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

We are about to enter a prolongued period in which normal political and economic gravity is suspended and I could honestly foresee Martial Law being declared in various regions of the UK as the social fabric unravels.

As mental as this sounds, it's entirely possible. We're staring at a situation regarding fuel poverty in the coming months where folk on low incomes and/or benefits are simply not going to be able to pay for heat, light and food. Foodbanks are going to be overwhelmed (they're struggling as it is). Historically when swathes of a population get cold and hungry, they get angry. I could certainly see folk taking to the streets to protest which will quickly devolve into riots, looting etc. Especially in London once the moronic Met Police get involved. 

People are worried at the moment as it is. There's a fucking huge crisis looming and all we're seeing is a pair of lightweight tory arseholes playing the worst game of one-upmanship in history in a desperate attempt to attract the votes of a party membership of ageing, selfish racists. 

[Mark Connolly]

Liz will probably fire the nukes at Bute House to prove how irrelevant she thinks Nicola Sturgeon is

[williemillersmoustache]

8 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

I’ll highlight two key ones, there may be others.

Firstly, the political landscape has changed significantly since the 2010 General Election.  The Lib Dems have not changed much ideologically but the post Brexit, post Johnson, post Trump Conservative Party is a completely different animal.  I could see the Lib Dems thinking they could work with an apparently moderate David Cameron, they would be unable to work with a zealot like Truss.  

Secondly, the Lib Dems are still paying the price for their folly.  In 2010 they got 23% of the popular vote and won 57 seats,  in 2015 they lost 49 of these seats and saw that vote share drop to less than 8%.  They’ve still not recovered from that and saw their percentage vote drop further in 2017 and only recover slightly in 2019.  They’re currently polling about 11% still way below where they were when they entered into a coalition with the Tories.

Even if the Lib Dem Parliamentary leadership were in favour of propping up a Truss led Tory government I think individual MPs would refuse to support it and the rank and file membership who came close to open revolt in 2010 would totally fragment.

 

If Truss leads them into a GE and loses the Tory majority,  she could well be knifed in the back quick smart and a more moderate* like Hunt or Clark put in place. And the LibDems would be right up for that. Agree that they'd be unlikely to prop up a Boris lite, lunatic brand tory but were the LDs in a position to matter, the lunatics would inherently be in very hot water.

*just shows you how the dial has shifted that I just typed out Hunt, moderate. c**t. 

[Benjamin_Nevis]

8 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

I’ll highlight two key ones, there may be others.

Firstly, the political landscape has changed significantly since the 2010 General Election.  The Lib Dems have not changed much ideologically but the post Brexit, post Johnson, post Trump Conservative Party is a completely different animal.  I could see the Lib Dems thinking they could work with an apparently moderate David Cameron, they would be unable to work with a zealot like Truss.  

Secondly, the Lib Dems are still paying the price for their folly.  In 2010 they got 23% of the popular vote and won 57 seats,  in 2015 they lost 49 of these seats and saw that vote share drop to less than 8%.  They’ve still not recovered from that and saw their percentage vote drop further in 2017 and only recover slightly in 2019.  They’re currently polling about 11% still way below where they were when they entered into a coalition with the Tories.

Even if the Lib Dem Parliamentary leadership were in favour of propping up a Truss led Tory government I think individual MPs would refuse to support it and the rank and file membership who came close to open revolt in 2010 would totally fragment.

 

Fair points. However this assumes that a reasonable number of Lib Dem MPs give a solitary f**k about the long term health of the Party beyond their own careers. I suspect there are a few who would happily trouser some ministerial position for 4-5 years with all the added perks, and that nice fat pension once they're emptied at the next election, followed by a possible peerage, the after-dinner speaking circuit, "consultancy" gigs etc, especially those who won their seats in constituencies where Tory voters either stayed at home in by-elections, or decided to give their party a kick in the baws. 

However I'm not sure it'll be an issue anyway. Either the electorate will be fooled by Truss's right wing lunacy, or the Tories will get a 1997 style thumping at the next election. This lot are easily as, if not more detestable than the 1997 utter gang. 

[Granny Danger]

What I think will happen is also what I hope will happen in terms of the GE result, namely that the SNP will hold the balance of power.  It is feasible that the significant lead that Labour has in the polls at present will carry on through giving Starmer a clear majority but I think they will lose some ground and a combination of boundary changes and FPTP will mean neither Labour or the Tories will have a majority.

What happens beyond that will depend on the SNP having the balls to use their position of strength.

Truss might get removed but I cannot see her being replaced by a ‘moderate’, the Conservative Parliamentary group has moved too far to the right in recent years to allow that to happen.  Her successor will be just as fanatical.

If the GE result creates a relatively stable outcome (Labour majority or Labour minority with SNP support) I think she will be allowed to carry on and any change will come a couple of years down the line.  If the GE result creates uncertainty (SNP holding the balance and unwilling to support Labour due to a lack of commitment to IndyRef 2) then the Tories will not have the time to replace her further to another GE.

 

[Kamenitza]

My prediction is that :-   Truss is declared winner of the contest and on the way to her coronation she accidently falls down the stairs. Instead of her victory speech up pops Boris to heroicaly announce that he will answer his party's call in this time of great need and will humbly continue as the country's greatest ever Prime Minister.

f**k knows what will happen after that, but one thing that is certain and not conjecture is that I will be bloody glad that I no longer live on that Septic Isle.