Title race

[Fuctifano]

I still have 65 points as the total where you're more likely to win the league than not and 67 gives you a >90% chance of doing so

For 4th and a playoff place those totals are 54 and 57 respectively, and for survival 35 (low as I can ever remember it) and 39.

Here's how the 1000 sims played out in terms of finishing positions with the usual disclaimers about pinch of salt, Elo based sims and that the tables are rounded so % may not always add up to 100.

Cove's Elo rating has taken a battering due to their numerous pumpings, as margin of victory / defeat results in bigger movements, which is why they're predicted to finish last most often.

 

 

Edited March 22, 2023 by Fuctifano

[Bring Your Own Socks]

13 minutes ago, Fuctifano said:

I still have 65 points as the total where you're more likely to win the league than not and 67 gives you a >90% chance of doing so

For 4th and a playoff place those totals are 54 and 57 respectively, and for survival 35 (low as I can ever remember it) and 39.

Here's how the 1000 sims played out in terms of finishing positions with the usual disclaimers about pinch of salt, Elo based sims and that the tables are rounded so % may not always add up to 100.

Cove's Elo rating has taken a battering due to their numerous pumpings, which is why they're predicted to finish last most often.

 

 

Good stuff. Out of interest, when you overhauled Falkirk a couple of years back thanks in part to their notorious collapse, where were Thistle at that point, say 6 or 7 games out?

[Molotov]

The Scottish Championship is a superb division. 

In my lifetime I’ve seen St Mirren win that title 4 times:

76/77, 99/00, 05/06 & 17/18 

Each time it was hard fought to the last few games.

Each team in those seasons were more than capable of beating every other team home and away on a good day.

The problem is that once you get promoted to the “promised land” of the top league it just becomes so dull and uninteresting with the arse cheeks financial domination. 

Not only that but the pressure on the diddy club top flight teams is not to get relegated so it breeds a very negative approach to the football played.

I wish all your teams the best over the coming weeks.

Enjoy the journey. It’s a fcuking rollercoaster of emotions but cherish it! 

Good luck to you all. Even Morten!

[Fuctifano]

7 hours ago, Bring Your Own Socks said:

Good stuff. Out of interest, when you overhauled Falkirk a couple of years back thanks in part to their notorious collapse, where were Thistle at that point, say 6 or 7 games out?

I don't have the old spreadsheets, but that season had a split after 18 games, and I can't do the sims beyond the point of the split (as I need to know exact fixtures)- of course by the time the split came we were top of the league. So I probably didn't do the sims until the point of the split.

[oneteaminglasgow]

44 minutes ago, Bring Your Own Socks said:

Good stuff. Out of interest, when you overhauled Falkirk a couple of years back thanks in part to their notorious collapse, where were Thistle at that point, say 6 or 7 games out?

I think we were something like 7 or 8 points behind Falkirk with 8 games left (7 left for them).

We were then 2 points ahead with 4 games left, and finished up 8 points clear of them.

[Bring Your Own Socks]

24 minutes ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

I think we were something like 7 or 8 points behind Falkirk with 8 games left (7 left for them).

We were then 2 points ahead with 4 games left, and finished up 8 points clear of them.

Cheers. So in the context of this league and this season, it’s still all to play for. A lot of shoutin’ and shittin’ before this is done. Loving it!

Edited March 22, 2023 by Bring Your Own Socks

[TxRover]

3 hours ago, Bring Your Own Socks said:

Great stuff TX Rover. I’ll fully endorse it, without understanding why, and if it’s wrong at least we’ll get mocked together

Much appreciated.

Mocking always welcome, when we start taking this stuff too seriously we need to be transferred to the Celtic/Ranger forums.

Edit: The bonus of Queen’s Park getting promoted will be the apoplectic rage of the fans of the arse cheeks as they realize they will get perhaps 200-400 tickets.

Edited March 22, 2023 by TxRover

[Yid_in_Exiile]

My rule of thumb, without all these spreadsheets, ELO ratings and Monte Carlo analysis, is that catching a title leader becomes very very tricky once you need to close up more than a point per remaining game.

Obviously there are exceptions in past seasons but nine times out of ten that rule works in the run in. Equally obviously Ayr Utd after last night are now officially the title also-rans we in reality always were. We've been figured out big-time but then we never expected to be in with a shout come the last quarter of the season in the first place.

I'm just as surprised as Fuctifano that Ayr are such good odds to finish Top 4, as it feels like we are 50/50 at best. Murdoch serving a suspension now for yellow card accumulation, Musonda on international duty and Kirk's injury (on top of Mullen's long term injury) have probably done us in. I would give odds on we finish 5th now TBH. 

Edited March 22, 2023 by Yid_in_Exiile

[Fuctifano]

Morton's top 4 chances seem a bit low to me especially compared to Raith and ICT but think rest of it seems reasonable. 

Obviously can't factor in injuries and suspensions. 

[Dunning1874]

4 minutes ago, Fuctifano said:

Morton's top 4 chances seem a bit low to me especially compared to Raith and ICT but think rest of it seems reasonable. 

Obviously can't factor in injuries and suspensions. 

How heavily is the ELO rating based on recent games? Being winless in four might be causing that.

[johnnydun]

Don't bring me down with the ELO rating.

[jagsfan57]

1 hour ago, TxRover said:

Mocking always welcome, when we start taking this stuff too seriously we need to be transferred to the Celtic/Ranger forums.

Edit: The bonus of Queen’s Park getting promoted will be the apoplectic rage of the fans of the arse cheeks as they realize they will get perhaps 200-400 tickets.

It will depend where QP play next season. There is obviously now no minimum number that needs to be made available to away fans. If they play at Lesser Hampden, they will surely be able to fill that with ST holders?

[Bring Your Own Socks]

2 hours ago, TxRover said:

Mocking always welcome, when we start taking this stuff too seriously we need to be transferred to the Celtic/Ranger forums.

Edit: The bonus of Queen’s Park getting promoted will be the apoplectic rage of the fans of the arse cheeks as they realize they will get perhaps 200-400 tickets.

The big end is currently graded with wet soil, or mud as we used to call it. That would work. Like the Shay at Halifax. Skiting is the word I’m thinking of.

[Louis Litt]

8/11 for Queens Park still seems generous 

[Fuctifano]

45 minutes ago, johnnydun said:

Don't bring me down with the ELO rating.

Thumbs up for the joke but it's Elo (named after the guy who invented it) not E.L.O. 

[Fuctifano]

1 hour ago, Dunning1874 said:

How heavily is the ELO rating based on recent games? Being winless in four might be causing that.

yeah there is that, Thistle being unbeaten in 6 as well.

[Bring Your Own Socks]

3 hours ago, Yid_in_Exiile said:

I would give odds on we finish 5th now TBH. 

That spots reserved for Greenock. Jeff Lynne has ordained it.

Hold on tight to your dreams.

[Derry Alli]

5 hours ago, TxRover said:

Mocking always welcome, when we start taking this stuff too seriously we need to be transferred to the Celtic/Ranger forums.

Edit: The bonus of Queen’s Park getting promoted will be the apoplectic rage of the fans of the arse cheeks as they realize they will get perhaps 200-400 tickets.

They'll still outnumber the Queens fans.

Spoiler

Apart fae the Rangers, they loved the old dear.

 

[TxRover]

5 hours ago, Fuctifano said:

Morton's top 4 chances seem a bit low to me especially compared to Raith and ICT but think rest of it seems reasonable. 

Obviously can't factor in injuries and suspensions. 

The injuries and suspension impact at this level is nearly indeterminate, which is part of the problem. We can capture the relative rating of the roster as a whole, but the interplay and synergy of various players being in and out would require massive analysis like the Premier League or NFL and such get. Even 538’s analysis of Club Football probabilities suffers from this failure at the granular level.

Even if a team in the Championship loses their best player, it doesn’t have the impact that a National Team or a top Champions League team losing THEIR best player(s). That’s why this league is so much more engrossing than those “higher” competitions. Add the truly abysmal referee performances that we often see, although the standard is much better than we’d admit, and there is a random element here that makes these predictions little more than a call to the California Psychic Hotline.

However, these predictions, and trying to find a factor to add that will make the results more accurate, are just part of the fun.

A little wonkiness:

-Queen’s Park’s winning total might to be less that any of the previous winners back to St. Johnstone in 08-09, with 65. (Weights 19-20 and 20-21 by multiplying by 1.33)

-St. Johnstone’s 65 was the lowest total in the modern 10 team First Division/Championship era since 94-95, so if Queen’s Park manages to win with 64 or less, that will be the lowest total since the second level of Scottish football changed to 10 teams for 94-95.

-Two of Cove, Arbroath and the Accies are odds on favorites to have some of the lowest totals for 8th and 9th since 15-16, when the Sons made 8th with 37 and Livi made 9th with 31 (but they won’t match the badness of 14-15, when Livi and Alloa managed 27 and Cowdenbeath 25)

-21-22 and 13-14 both had 2 points between 1st and 2nd…06-07, 03-04 and 94-95 had 1 point between 1st and 2nd. After that we have 4 once, 5 twice and it quickly expands from there, with an average of 10 between the top two.

-9th and 10th have steadily gotten closer and close, with the early years (starting in 94-95 again) usually being 10+, but since 08-09 the gap has generally steadily closed, with exceptions like Brechin in 17-18.

[Fifespud]

2 hours ago, TxRover said:

The injuries and suspension impact at this level is nearly indeterminate, which is part of the problem. We can capture the relative rating of the roster as a whole, but the interplay and synergy of various players being in and out would require massive analysis like the Premier League or NFL and such get. Even 538’s analysis of Club Football probabilities suffers from this failure at the granular level.

Even if a team in the Championship loses their best player, it doesn’t have the impact that a National Team or a top Champions League team losing THEIR best player(s). That’s why this league is so much more engrossing than those “higher” competitions. Add the truly abysmal referee performances that we often see, although the standard is much better than we’d admit, and there is a random element here that makes these predictions little more than a call to the California Psychic Hotline.

However, these predictions, and trying to find a factor to add that will make the results more accurate, are just part of the fun.

A little wonkiness:

-Queen’s Park’s winning total might to be less that any of the previous winners back to St. Johnstone in 08-09, with 65. (Weights 19-20 and 20-21 by multiplying by 1.33)

-St. Johnstone’s 65 was the lowest total in the modern 10 team First Division/Championship era since 94-95, so if Queen’s Park manages to win with 64 or less, that will be the lowest total since the second level of Scottish football changed to 10 teams for 94-95.

-Two of Cove, Arbroath and the Accies are odds on favorites to have some of the lowest totals for 8th and 9th since 15-16, when the Sons made 8th with 37 and Livi made 9th with 31 (but they won’t match the badness of 14-15, when Livi and Alloa managed 27 and Cowdenbeath 25)

-21-22 and 13-14 both had 2 points between 1st and 2nd…06-07, 03-04 and 94-95 had 1 point between 1st and 2nd. After that we have 4 once, 5 twice and it quickly expands from there, with an average of 10 between the top two.

-9th and 10th have steadily gotten closer and close, with the early years (starting in 94-95 again) usually being 10+, but since 08-09 the gap has generally steadily closed, with exceptions like Brechin in 17-18.

In the season we went up, the ‘Morten’ season, when Christian Nade scored our winner, was it not goal difference?