US Presidential Election 2024

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, CarrbridgeSaintee said:

The pro-Israel lobby have both parties America sewn up.

Fixed it for ya. Until more of a younger generation start getting into power, it will continue. THe older generation still see Israel as the only Democracy in the area and the plucky little country standing up against those dirty A-rabs...seriously, its how they still think (but often with a more pejorative name in mind).

[dirty dingus]

6 hours ago, bigmarv said:

Which rabbit hole? The MAGA one? 

Yes full QAnon right wing christian end days fundamentalists. 

[Granny Danger]

Looks like Kennedy is ready to throw his lot in with Trump.  No big surprise imo, it was always on the cards, but if he believes anything Trump promises him in return he needs his head examined dewormed again.

Various polls I’ve seen shows Harris’ lead over Trump holding steady with or without Kennedy’s involvement so it’s no game changer, mind you an added push by the Kennedy clan in support of Harris won’t go amiss.

 

[Suspect Device]

 

 

[Granny Danger]

The next 76 days could be very interesting.  Trump is already showing signs of unraveling and if the momentum of the Harris campaign continues he will realise what the implications are in terms of ongoing legal cases including one or two state led ones where his SCOTUS friends will have little opportunity to save him.  He might continue to be in denial publicly but privately it will create enormous pressure.

I think a full scale mental and/or physical breakdown could well occur over the coming weeks; in a just world this will happen live on air.

 

[ScotiaNostra]

its the democrats to win now, which is kinda worrying as they quite often can mess things up. Hard to see where they could mess it up now but until its won and Harris is president I will remain a wee bit worried.  Its like Scotland 1-0 nil up with 5 minutes left and only needing a draw.

Edited August 21 by ScotiaNostra

[GordonS]

On 20/08/2024 at 08:06, Granny Danger said:

Democrat leaning pro-Palestine supporters have an unpalatable choice to make at this election.  Do they only support Harris -Walz if the pair take a more critical stance on Israel?  If so they risk the election of a man who will be far more willing to excuse the atrocities and will support whatever Israel and its Prime Minister wants to do.

After the election there’s the possibility of Harris being tougher on Israel.  Undoubtedly a slim possibility and probably not tough enough, but there’s zero chance of Trump being anything less that fully supportive of Netanyahu.

 

Imagine having to choose between Celtic and Rangers. That's what I think it would be like to be an American voter.

[carpetmonster]

1 minute ago, ScotiaNostra said:

its the democrats to win now, which is kinda worrying as they quite often can mess things up. Hard to see where they could mess it up now but until its won and Harris is president I will remain a wee bit worried.  Its like Scotland 1-0 nil up with 5 minutes left and only needing a draw.

Christopher Bouzy - who got the last election absolutely bang on outside of about 4 or 5 seats - keeps banging on about Florida, saying it’s in play; that not all registered R’s will vote for Trump - he reckons about 3-5% won’t - and that independents will break towards the Dems. I’m more than prepared for Florida to be a honking disappointment again - it has a long history of going R after very close run races (DeSantis only beat Gillum by something like half a percentage point) but if that trend hits other swing states then I don’t think you can fail to argue that the DNC (with 20% higher TV viewership) has been inifinitely more impressive than the RNC. 
 

As much as I’m baffled by the Americans treating everything like a sporting event, here’s the RNC roll call

 

 

and then the DNC

 

If there’s anyone left who’s still genuinely on the fence and it’s a choice between paying attention to Michelle Obama, or this shambling dick, I don’t think it’ll be close 

 

[GordonS]

12 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

The next 76 days could be very interesting.  Trump is already showing signs of unraveling and if the momentum of the Harris campaign continues he will realise what the implications are in terms of ongoing legal cases including one or two state led ones where his SCOTUS friends will have little opportunity to save him.  He might continue to be in denial publicly but privately it will create enormous pressure.

I think a full scale mental and/or physical breakdown could well occur over the coming weeks; in a just world this will happen live on air.

 

Trump: "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take this any more!"

The following day...

Gallup: Trump 55%, Harris 42%.

[carpetmonster]

On 20/08/2024 at 02:06, Granny Danger said:

Democrat leaning pro-Palestine supporters have an unpalatable choice to make at this election.  Do they only support Harris -Walz if the pair take a more critical stance on Israel?  If so they risk the election of a man who will be far more willing to excuse the atrocities and will support whatever Israel and its Prime Minister wants to do.

After the election there’s the possibility of Harris being tougher on Israel.  Undoubtedly a slim possibility and probably not tough enough, but there’s zero chance of Trump being anything less that fully supportive of Netanyahu.

 

Not sure if this has made news outside the US yet, but PBS have reported Trump’s been on the phone to Bibi trying to ratf**k a ceasefire. While it might not turn folks on to Harris, it should definitely put them off Trump, and I think I’m right in saying Harris is ahead in the polls in Michigan, which is the state with the highest Muslim voting populace, even before this dropped last night 

 

[AndyM]

2 minutes ago, ScotiaNostra said:

its the democrats to win now, which is kinda worrying as they quite often can mess things up. Hard to see where they could mess it up now but until its won and Harris is president I will remain a wee bit worried. 

It seems Harris has adopted the Keir Starmer patented MIng Vase Strategy of not saying anything to scare the horses, and in her case, not saying much at all beyond the odd quip or head shake at Trump. The "weird" tag thrown at Trump and Vance has hit home really hard. 

There is no need to do a huge amount with the Trump campaign shooting itself in the foot on a regular basis. They're lumbered with a frankly appalling and deeply unpopular VP pick.  Trump himself is looking old and his speeches are rambling, dreary, word salads where he goes through his greatest hits of a supposed stolen election and MAGA pish and wind. He literally cannot stay on the message (economy/immigration) his advisers tell him to do and he resorts to puerile personal insults which never works. 

Harris knows the old quote from Napoleon "Never interrupt your enemy when they're making a mistake".  Harris will win the swing states and that will be that.

[doulikefish]

I know they changed the methodology but I still don't trust the polls...the manchild could still win this as the murica goes more fruitloop 

[GordonS]

7 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

I know they changed the methodology but I still don't trust the polls...the manchild could still win this as the murica goes more fruitloop 

Harris is very likely to win the national vote regardless so those polls aren't the ones to watch. There's six main swing states, plus the Nebraska 2nd, plus a couple of others to keep an eye on, and it's the polls there that matter. Harris has a small lead in enough of them but I wouldn't feel a shred of confidence with a lead under 3. There's a long way to go but at this point it's still on a knife-edge. We might think Trump is coming across as a headcase but his voters apparently don't.

[doulikefish]

5 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Harris is very likely to win the national vote regardless so those polls aren't the ones to watch. There's six main swing states, plus the Nebraska 2nd, plus a couple of others to keep an eye on, and it's the polls there that matter. Harris has a small lead in enough of them but I wouldn't feel a shred of confidence with a lead under 3. There's a long way to go but at this point it's still on a knife-edge. We might think Trump is coming across as a headcase but his voters apparently don't.

The swing state polls is what I'm on about as per the last 2 elections ,trumps votes did not equate to the polls and as for Florida being in play I'm reading that the Dems are only leading in dade county ( which they should romp as traditionally the strongest dem county) by only half a point which doesnt bode well 

[TxRover]

58 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

The next 76 days could be very interesting.  Trump is already showing signs of unraveling and if the momentum of the Harris campaign continues he will realise what the implications are in terms of ongoing legal cases including one or two state led ones where his SCOTUS friends will have little opportunity to save him.  He might continue to be in denial publicly but privately it will create enormous pressure.

I think a full scale mental and/or physical breakdown could well occur over the coming weeks; in a just world this will happen live on air.

 

Consider what a Trump showing signs of being mentally unfit for the Office might mean for legal cases. There’s room to argue for avoidance of jail time, and/or mitigation of actions IF the decline can be shown…which his behaviors in the last year plus make possible. The permutations for how it perhaps impacts charges, verdicts and punishments are multifold.

Time to consider if Trump’s camp would consider effectively pushing more outrageous behavior from Donald if the election is clearly being lost in order to position for post-election legal maneuvering.

50 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Imagine having to choose between Celtic and Rangers. That's what I think it would be like to be an American voter.

These days it’s more like Zenit vs Toronto FC. One side is full on strongman heaven and the other is Canadians…you know, eh, they’re not really from here, and I’m not entirely sure we can trust them.

[GordonS]

4 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

The swing state polls is what I'm on about as per the last 2 elections ,trumps votes did not equate to the polls and as for Florida being in play I'm reading that the Dems are only leading in dade county ( which they should romp as traditionally the strongest dem county) by only half a point which doesnt bode well 

I don't buy the Florida thing at all, Democrats have been on the slide there for a long time, culminating in an absolute shoeing in the 2022 midterms and gubernatorial elections when they lost roughly 60-40 across the board. I don't see how they turn that around in 2 years, against a candidate that lives there too.

You're right about the polls underestimating Trump's support, they've changed the methodology since then but we won't know if they've got it right until after the election. According to 538, Harris' average lead is 1.3 in Pennsylvania, 3.3 in Wisconsin, 2.9 in Michigan. They're too tight and Harris might need them all.

[TxRover]

2 minutes ago, GordonS said:

I don't buy the Florida thing at all, Democrats have been on the slide there for a long time, culminating in an absolute shoeing in the 2022 midterms and gubernatorial elections when they lost roughly 60-40 across the board. I don't see how they turn that around in 2 years, against a candidate that lives there too.

You're right about the polls underestimating Trump's support, they've changed the methodology since then but we won't know if they've got it right until after the election. According to 538, Harris' average lead is 1.3 in Pennsylvania, 3.3 in Wisconsin, 2.9 in Michigan. They're too tight and Harris might need them all.

The catch is that after the 2016 and 2020 underestimates of Trump support, the pollers have first adjusted and then tweaked their models. Strangely enough, the biggest problem has been the correct correction for Trump support being OVERrepresented in the polls. With Trump voters skewing older, they are more likely to have landline phones, long a staple of polling. The polls have increasingly moved to online sampling, which is inherently vulnerable to manipulation and outright attack.

There’s also the impatient voter trend, those being polled who say “I’m voting for X”, and then quit answering/hang-up. Those were previously discarded, but proper counting adjusted the results to cover about 40% of the polling error.

With regard to recent trails of the adjusted polls, in 2022 the polling was as accurate as it’s been since 1998, while the Republican primary polls all overshot Trumps support. SurveyUSA and New York Times/Siena polls were the gold standard for 2022, with no calculable bias and a 100% accuracy rate. SurveyUSA has Harris up by 3%, but that breaks down into Trump +5 in the South while Harris is +3 in the Midwest, +5 in the Northeast and +10 in the West. On the whole, Harris is looking decent odds to win, right now, but there’s still months to go.

[Granny Danger]

Nate Silver saying from the most recent polling Harris is 54-46 favourite.  He’s saying she’s ’losing momentum’ in Pennsylvania which is a worry as I’m less sanguine than he is about her ability to win without carrying that state.

https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-statistician-podcast-kamala-harris-rise-polls-dnc-1942331
 

[Wee-Bey]

Video editing is my passion.

 

 

 

[scottsdad]

17 hours ago, carpetmonster said:

Not sure if this has made news outside the US yet, but PBS have reported Trump’s been on the phone to Bibi trying to ratf**k a ceasefire. While it might not turn folks on to Harris, it should definitely put them off Trump, and I think I’m right in saying Harris is ahead in the polls in Michigan, which is the state with the highest Muslim voting populace, even before this dropped last night 

 

Nixon did the exact same thing in '68. A ceasefire in Vietnam would have helped Humphrey win the election, and so Nixon managed to convince the South Vietnamese to walk away from the peace talks.