US Presidential Election 2024

[Cheese]

1 hour ago, TxRover said:

Disagree. With the defection of some moderates not yet reflected in polls, it will be interesting to see how things shift as we move from Primaries to the General. The swing state approach you suggest would be true IF a he can retain those moderates that he lost in Iowa and is showing poor support with overall. The whole swing state/it’s all about Georgia/Nevada/Arizona/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin/Michigan kind of thing isn’t a valid approach until we get much closer to the General, especially with the pushes to put wedge issue proposals on the ballots.

He'll have only lost a bunch of those moderates in Iowa because they have someone else to vote for (Haley), you have to expect many will grudgingly get behind him once the nomination is confirmed, even more so if he's willing to compromise on the VP pick (he probably won't mind you). Any remaining will likely stay home rather than vote Biden in the General given the carcrash he's currently serving up, verging on historical unpopularity, and with his own 2020 coalition crumbling with Hispanics and young voters favouring Trump.

 

[bigmarv]

I had no idea that the Birther stuff was back. These wankers are nothing if not consistent (ly racist) 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/17/politics/what-to-know-about-false-birther-claims-about-nikki-haley/index.html

[TxRover]

7 hours ago, D Angelo Barksdale said:

He'll have only lost a bunch of those moderates in Iowa because they have someone else to vote for (Haley), you have to expect many will grudgingly get behind him once the nomination is confirmed, even more so if he's willing to compromise on the VP pick (he probably won't mind you). Any remaining will likely stay home rather than vote Biden in the General given the carcrash he's currently serving up, verging on historical unpopularity, and with his own 2020 coalition crumbling with Hispanics and young voters favouring Trump.

 

You’re arguing from both sides. 50% of Haley supporters said they would vote Biden over Trump, and you argue that data isn’t valid…the polls show Trump gaining support with the U-35 group, and you argue that data is correct. Can’t have it both ways.

The U-35 data is skewed by a couple of things. 1) Student Loan relief is much more widespread than the press has published, they’ve been doing it in smaller chunks, that will have positive results. 2) The freshness of the Israeli situation, and Trumps lack of well covered pronouncements about it. Trump has staked a position supporting Israel, which will cut his support vs Biden when it gets covered.

The Hispanic data is part of a long term demographic trend, with Hispanic voters tending more Conservative than expected based upon their ages and demographics…which is ironic, because the Republican Party is making it more difficult for them to vote.

Biden’s “carcrash” is hardly the disaster that the media such as Fox portray it as, especially with newer data turning positive, so I’d expect that factor to ease as the run-up occurs. The plus for the perception of this from the Republican side is it is encouraging stupid decisions like abortion laws and proposals on ballots. In the end, with more direct comparisons between Biden and Trump speeches and rallies coming, we’ll have to look at the data.

7 hours ago, bigmarv said:

I had no idea that the Birther stuff was back. These wankers are nothing if not consistent (ly racist) 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/17/politics/what-to-know-about-false-birther-claims-about-nikki-haley/index.html

You forget the “average” American tends to believe white folk come from America, Spain is full of Mexicans because they speak Spanish like Mexico (and Hispanics aren’t white, no matter what the census says), and they get pissed off when places overseas won’t take good American dollars!

[Freedom Farter]

Haley is not more moderate than Trump. Her social policy positions are even more conservative, her foreign policy more hawkish and her economics even further right.

With any Republican voters against Trump, that's due to their doubts over his competency and his efficacy. It's not that they have more ethical or more moderate politics than him.

Edited January 18 by Freedom Farter

[vikingTON]

12 hours ago, TxRover said:

Disagree. With the defection of some moderates not yet reflected in polls, 

Seems legit then. If they made a completely pointless gesture towards Nikki Haley or some other marginally less fruit-loop Republican candidate in a caucus now, then they're bound to defect to an unpopular and uninspiring incumbent in the real thing, after a year of constant partisan shit-flinging. Oh and with the Middle East already erupting in flames like a Homer Simpson breakfast.

You've definitely got a finger on the pulse that polls just can't register. 

 

Edited January 18 by vikingTON

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The Trump strategy is not about attracting Democratic voters in swing states but about getting them not to vote - to reinforce disillusionment with Biden.

I know it's still some time away but the Democrats look doomed unless Biden is binned.

[MazzyStar]

2 hours ago, Freedom Farter said:

Haley is not more moderate than Trump. Her social policy positions are even more conservative, her foreign policy more hawkish and her economics even further right.

With any Republican voters against Trump, that's due to their doubts over his competency and his efficacy. It's not that they have more ethical or more moderate politics than him.

True. There’s no such thing as moderate republicans. 

[TxRover]

6 hours ago, Freedom Farter said:

Haley is not more moderate than Trump. Her social policy positions are even more conservative, her foreign policy more hawkish and her economics even further right.

With any Republican voters against Trump, that's due to their doubts over his competency and his efficacy. It's not that they have more ethical or more moderate politics than him.

It’s not her policies that attract R’s as much as disillusionment with Trump, thus she seems to have become the default No Trumper choice. Note that many No Trumpers voted D in 2020, it’s an the enemy of my enemy routine.

3 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

The Trump strategy is not about attracting Democratic voters in swing states but about getting them not to vote - to reinforce disillusionment with Biden.

I know it's still some time away but the Democrats look doomed unless Biden is binned.

The first bit is accurate, and currently being attacked by the D’s (and R own goals) by seeking to put hot button issues on the ballot. As for the second, I’m not seeing it even close to a sure thing either way.

3 hours ago, MazzyStar said:

True. There’s no such thing as moderate republicans. 

Sure there are, they’re called Independents and Moderate Democrats these days. The old 40/20/40 rule for voting affiliation is rapidly becoming 30/40/30, which is making election predictions more complex. If you look at positions, 1960’s Republicans are effectively Moderate Democrats today, as part of a general movement to the Right by the electorate in the U.S.

[MazzyStar]

2 hours ago, TxRover said:

 

 

Sure there are, they’re called Independents and Moderate Democrats these days. 

You’ve proved my point. 

[TxRover]

44 minutes ago, MazzyStar said:

You’ve proved my point. 

You could as easily say there are no Republicans now, only fascists. Just saying.

[GHF-23]

Very funny section in this month's Harpers. I think Biden should talk about his violent dogs more

[Cheese]

13 hours ago, TxRover said:

You’re arguing from both sides. 50% of Haley supporters said they would vote Biden over Trump, and you argue that data isn’t valid…the polls show Trump gaining support with the U-35 group, and you argue that data is correct. Can’t have it both ways.

The U-35 data is skewed by a couple of things. 1) Student Loan relief is much more widespread than the press has published, they’ve been doing it in smaller chunks, that will have positive results. 2) The freshness of the Israeli situation, and Trumps lack of well covered pronouncements about it. Trump has staked a position supporting Israel, which will cut his support vs Biden when it gets covered.

I'm not arguing in from both sides and I never claimed 'the 50% of Haley supporters voting Biden' data isn’t valid, it's a completely uncontroversial view that voters will rally round the candidate once they're confirmed. 

Even if 50% of Haley voters vote Biden, it's unlikely to make a significant contribution to the election given the numbers involved spread across all the states.

13 hours ago, TxRover said:

Biden’s “carcrash” is hardly the disaster that the media such as Fox portray it as

The fact that a bunch of goons like Trump and the current Republican Party have a shot here, never mind actually leading in some polls and being the bookies favourites, is all the evidence required to class this as a carcrash. 

Never mind his implication in the crimes against humanity currently occurring in Gaza.

 

[Cheese]

[Freedom Farter]

Ah, you beat me this time. I linked that in the Red Sea Crisis thread then deleted in shame when I saw I'd been pipped.

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, D Angelo Barksdale said:

The fact that a bunch of goons like Trump and the current Republican Party have a shot here, never mind actually leading in some polls and being the bookies favourites, is all the evidence required to class this as a carcrash. 

I might remind you that odds are designed to get people to lay down money in certain ways and are adjusted to reduce risk to the offerer of the odds, not because a result is expected. For instance, a number of online bookies have been shortening the Trump offers (from +160 to between +120 and +100) due to money being placed upon him, while Biden's odds range from +210 to +140. The overall implication is about 40%-45% Trump and 30-35% Biden, hardly a landslide with 10 months to go. The actual representative of the Republican Party is, effectively, irrelevant to most of the Hard Right, as they are simply voting for the party that promises to keep the people below them down so they can still kick them.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

Looking at their actual politics, is it just me who would rather see Trump as the republican nominee over Haley and De Santis? Haley actually seems to be further right than Trump and De Santis is actually a bigger egomaniac but wholly incompetent, have a look at the whole Reedy Creek Improvement District affair to see just how petty De Santis actually is. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

11 hours ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Looking at their actual politics, is it just me who would rather see Trump as the republican nominee over Haley and De Santis? Haley actually seems to be further right than Trump and De Santis is actually a bigger egomaniac but wholly incompetent, have a look at the whole Reedy Creek Improvement District affair to see just how petty De Santis actually is. 

 

It tells you where US politics is right now that Trump is the moderate compared to those two.

[Zetterlund]

Nikki Haley is the female John Bolton and will be personally piloting a nuclear bomber over Iran 5 minutes after inauguration.

De Santis just seems like a generic beige Republican to me, and not particularly smart or good at campaigning. One of the likely reasons he's come this far is his MOAR FREEDUM approach during Covid.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

11 minutes ago, Zetterlund said:

Nikki Haley is the female John Bolton and will be personally piloting a nuclear bomber over Iran 5 minutes after inauguration.

De Santis just seems like a generic beige Republican to me, and not particularly smart or good at campaigning. One of the likely reasons he's come this far is his MOAR FREEDUM approach during Covid.

De Santis is more hardline in terms of anti abortion, anti lgbt. He is so petty, which i believe is a measure of the man, that because disney posted a tweet in support of lgbt rights he targeted them (one of the biggest employers in Florida) and took it personally. De Santis is what Trump would be like if he believed the stuff he said. 

[TxRover]

15 hours ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Looking at their actual politics, is it just me who would rather see Trump as the republican nominee over Haley and De Santis? Haley actually seems to be further right than Trump and De Santis is actually a bigger egomaniac but wholly incompetent, have a look at the whole Reedy Creek Improvement District affair to see just how petty De Santis actually is. 

Haley is a traditional conservative politician, transactional and very willing to pivot with the wind. However, she’s also not a petty, vindictive, wannabe dictator like DeSantis and, especially, Trump. I would hate Haley’s policies, but she’d do the job.

DeSantis and Trump would be disastrous with both showing they will use their powers to get even. The U.S. Congress is so convinced that Trump would pull the U.S. from NATO they passed a law making it impossible for the President to do just that without Congressional approval. DeSantis or Trump winning would be a win for Putin and Russia too, Haley is more pragmatic and experienced in foreign policy and would likely do better.

A Haley win of the nomination would also split the hard right, with birtherism already re-emerging and the “can a wumin do the job” surely right behind it.