US Presidential Election 2024

[welshbairn]

8 minutes ago, StellarHibee said:

I thought this was a parody, perhaps some clever deep fake stuff going on to make it look and sound like him. Nope. Turns out that reality itself is the parody.

This one's real too, endorsed by his campaign.

 

[Granny Danger]

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

This one's real too, endorsed by his campaign.

 

Anyone watching that and thinking “yeah, that’s the guy for me” has serious, serious problems.

[Guest]

For all the hype and outrage with Trump, he won the 2016 election because the economic nationalism he preached in his campaign struck a chord with voters in mid-western, rust belt, swing states. 

DeSantis is a moron who hasn't worked that out and seems to think all of USA is the same as Florida. Therefore, he's a complete no-hoper and gladly so.

[Wee-Bey]

Much of DeSantis' campaign is also pitched at terminally online edgelords. The majority of voters will simply not know what the f**k videos like that are on about, or who these people are.

[welshbairn]

2 hours ago, Ziggy Sobotka said:

Much of DeSantis' campaign is also pitched at terminally online edgelords. The majority of voters will simply not know what the f**k videos like that are on about, or who these people are.

Yup, you'd have thought political consultants would have learnt from the midterms that running on so called culture war issues doesn't pay. Alba made the same mistake, thinking that everyone is obsessed with the same niche issues as their pals on twitter. 

[Granny Danger]

26 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Yup, you'd have thought political consultants would have learnt from the midterms that running on so called culture war issues doesn't pay. Alba made the same mistake, thinking that everyone is obsessed with the same niche issues as their pals on twitter. 

DeSantis’ problem is that culture wars is all he has, or at least all he espouses.  I’ve never heard him articulating real practical policy objectives on any of the big issues.

 

[KH4]

Trump really is a heavyweight in a division full of Glass Joe's when it comes to the Republican party. Last time round there were some candidates who could have easily gone on to win the nomination in any other year but Trump systematically dismantled them, and he made it look easy. 6 months before a votes been cast for the Republican nomination it's already a no contest. After a half baked launch Ron is scrambling for relevance while Trump hoovers up attention and sets the agenda. He'll be a distant second at best and the rest of the field are just wasting other people's money. 

That leaves Sleepy Joe against Trump, and whilst the smart money's on a Biden victory nobody should be counting any chickens. Trump is as sharp a performer as he's always been, he's motivated and has a lot more experience. The presidential debates are going to be an absolute minefield for the democrats, Trump has nothing to lose while Joe needs to convince America he's still got some of his marbles. He's usually able to turn it on when it matters, but if he falls apart at the seams and tries to wander off mid debate, it's a problem. Despite the polarization of American politics there's still a sizeable constituency that could go either way. Aside from personal sideshows like Trump going to prison and Hunter Biden, one of the big issues will be the perceived decline in big American cities. There's a sense among some Americans that control has been completely lost, and videos of swarms of crack zombies plaguing places like San Francisco are becoming a bit of an issue for Democrats. I know some New Yorkers who told me that in the late 80s places like Times Square, Port Authority and most subway stations were hell holes. It was old Waxhair Rudy who's credited with sorting that out and before he became a crank, he had built a solid reputation for himself. Whether American streets are as bad as people think they are I'm not so sure, but many are looking for someone to take out the trash. Given Joe's in the chair just now, you have to imagine for most people that'll be Trump. I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if he manages to ride this issue all the way to the Whitehouse. 

Edited August 8, 2023 by KH4

[Wee-Bey]

Yeah, the debates could be an utter carcrash for Biden.

[TxRover]

6 hours ago, FreedomFarter said:

For all the hype and outrage with Trump, he won the 2016 election because the economic nationalism he preached in his campaign struck a chord with voters in mid-western, rust belt, swing states. 

DeSantis is a moron who hasn't worked that out and seems to think all of USA is the same as Florida. Therefore, he's a complete no-hoper and gladly so.

Economic nationalism, Trump? No, far from it…Trump did support tariffs in certain cases, but was the opposite of an economic nationalist with regard to government control/intervention in business.
 

24 minutes ago, KH4 said:

Trump really is a heavyweight in a division full of Glass Joe's when it comes to the Republican party. Last time round there were some candidates who could have easily gone on to win the nomination in any other year but Trump systematically dismantled them, and he made it look easy. 6 months before a votes been cast for the Republican nomination it's already a no contest. After a half baked launch Ron is scrambling for relevance while Trump hoovers up attention and sets the agenda. He'll be a distant second at best and the rest of the field are just wasting other people's money. 

That leaves Sleepy Joe against Trump, and whilst the smart money's on a Biden victory nobody should be counting any chickens. Trump is as sharp a performer as he's always been, he's motivated and has a lot more experience. The presidential debates are going to be an absolute minefield for the democrats, Trump has nothing to lose while Joe needs to convince America he's still got some of his marbles. He's usually able to turn it on when it matters, but if he falls apart at the seams and tried to wander off mid debate, it's a problem. Despite the polarization of American politics there's still a sizeable constituency that could go either way. Aside from personal sideshows like Trump going to prison and Hunter Biden, one of the big issues will be the perceived decline in big American cities. There's a sense among some Americans that control has been completely lost, and videos of swarms of crack zombies plaguing places like San Francisco are becoming a bit of an issue for Democrats. I know some New Yorkers who told me that in the late 80s places like Times Square, Port Authority and most subway stations were hell holes. It was old Waxhair Rudy who's credited with sorting that out and before he became a crank, he had built a solid reputation for himself. Whether American streets are as bad as people think they are I'm not so sure, but many are looking for someone to take out the trash. Given Joe's in the chair just now, you have to imagine for most people that'll be Trump. I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if he manages to ride this issue all the way to the Whitehouse. 

Oh my, well, at least you showed your colours with Sleepy Joe. Trump is far from a heavyweight, his campaign funds are mostly directed to paying legal expenses, and Republicans across the country are starting to veer from his line. It is no longer an “accepted fact” that Trump won in 2020 by over 50% of the Republican higher office candidates already, and growing.

Anyone calling Trump “as sharp a performer as he’s always been” hasn’t been watching his speeches. He looks distracted, tired, and just rambles about his pet peeves and often doesn’t make sense. His promises now are reduced to threatening retaliation against those against him, trying to tell people they are after them though attacks on him, and it’s not playing as well. After the last two indictments, there were small but statistically significant reductions in Trump’s support.

Trump tried that dangerous cities bullshite recently and people ignored it. The decline of the big cities line is a myth, San Francisco has problems, as does Portland, Oregon, but in both cases it’s a homeless issue rather than a decline issue, and driven by favorable climate rather than anything else’s. It’s not a winning issue for either party at any but the local, and possibly state, level.

Trump has to be very careful here with the Washington D.C. indictment, as his speech has already put him at risk. He is on a pre-trial release, and his flamboyant attacks are now effectively possible witness tampering. There is a nebulous line between campaign speech and witness tampering, but Trump’s more recent attacks seem to quite possibly cross that line. I would fully expect Trump to be recalled to Judge Chutkan’s courtroom for a final warning issued with very explicit guidelines. After that, the keys to the jail cell will be in Trump’s hands…and I can’t see him being able to resist doing something that would get him confined.

2 minutes ago, Ziggy Sobotka said:

Yeah, the debates could be an utter carcrash for Biden.

I seriously doubt either Biden or Trump would do we in a debate.

Edited August 8, 2023 by TxRover

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Economic nationalism, Trump? No, far from it…Trump did support tariffs in certain cases, but was the opposite of an economic nationalist with regard to government control/intervention in business.

Sure, I was commenting on his 2016 campaign pitch not on what he actually did once in office. In campaigning for 2016 he went on about bringing manufacturing jobs back from China and claiming he'd tear up various international trade deals he claimed were harming American workers. His "America First" slogan was in reference to those ideas. That he didn't much follow through on them will've been at least part of the reason he then lost those 2016 mid-West/rust belt/swing state voters to Biden in 2020.

Edited August 8, 2023 by FreedomFarter

[BFTD]

It's wild how the Americans think of homelessness as the choice of weirdos and criminals, and not something that's inflicted on people in bad situations due to a lack of support in society. If anyone was allowed to do it, I reckon there'd be serious support for rounding up the homeless and implementing some kind of Final Solution.

Plenty of callous c***s over here too, but I think we've a ways to go before quite so many people are convinced that poverty is a choice. We're just happy to ignore it for now.

[StellarHibee]

Anybody else think that Ron DeSantis's purpose in this contest is to simply stir up and divide the non-Trump supporters, allowing Trump to run away with it?

[Granny Danger]

18 minutes ago, BTFD said:

It's wild how the Americans think of homelessness as the choice of weirdos and criminals, and not something that's inflicted on people in bad situations due to a lack of support in society. If anyone was allowed to do it, I reckon there'd be serious support for rounding up the homeless and implementing some kind of Final Solution.

Plenty of callous c***s over here too, but I think we've a ways to go before quite so many people are convinced that poverty is a choice. We're just happy to ignore it for now.

There’s a large minority of people in the U.K. who think poverty is a choice though they might not use these exact words.

[TxRover]

46 minutes ago, FreedomFarter said:

Sure, I was commenting on his 2016 campaign pitch not on what he actually did once in office. In campaigning for 2016 he went on about bringing manufacturing jobs back from China and claiming he'd tear up various international trade deals he claimed were harming American workers. His "America First" slogan was in reference to those ideas. That he didn't much follow through on them will've been at least part of the reason he then lost those 2016 mid-West/rust belt/swing state voters to Biden in 2020.

OK, but that’s still not economic nationalism, because economic nationalism requires Government control. Trump was pushing nationalism, isolationism, deregulation and American exceptionalism.

[KH4]

28 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Economic nationalism, Trump? No, far from it…Trump did support tariffs in certain cases, but was the opposite of an economic nationalist with regard to government control/intervention in business.
 

Oh my, well, at least you showed your colours with Sleepy Joe. Trump is far from a heavyweight, his campaign funds are mostly directed to paying legal expenses, and Republicans across the country are starting to veer from his line. It is no longer an “accepted fact” that Trump won in 2020 by over 50% of the Republican higher office candidates already, and growing.

Anyone calling Trump “as sharp a performer as he’s always been” hasn’t been watching his speeches. He looks distracted, tired, and just rambles about his pet peeves and often doesn’t make sense. His promises now are reduced to threatening retaliation against those against him, trying to tell people they are after them though attacks on him, and it’s not playing as well. After the last two indictments, there were small but statistically significant reductions in Trump’s support.

Trump tried that dangerous cities bullshite recently and people ignored it. The decline of the big cities line is a myth, San Francisco has problems, as does Portland, Oregon, but in both cases it’s a homeless issue rather than a decline issue, and driven by favorable climate rather than anything else’s. It’s not a winning issue for either party at any but the local, and possibly state, level.

Trump has to be very careful here with the Washington D.C. indictment, as his speech has already put him at risk. He is on a pre-trial release, and his flamboyant attacks are now effectively possible witness tampering. There is a nebulous line between campaign speech and witness tampering, but Trump’s more recent attacks seem to quite possibly cross that line. I would fully expect Trump to be recalled to Judge Chutkan’s courtroom for a final warning issued with very explicit guidelines. After that, the keys to the jail cell will be in Trump’s hands…and I can’t see him being able to resist doing something that would get him confined.

I seriously doubt either Biden or Trump would do we in a debate.

I don't have any colours. If I found myself in the unenviable position of having to vote for either of these two roasters I'd climb Trumps big, beautiful wall in the other direction. It is however interesting that using a nickname one of the candidates dreamed up is evidence of a person's political leanings. If I'd called him Crooked Joe of the Biden Crime Family I could see where you're coming from, but he is sleepy isn't he? 

I'm happy to disagree agreeably on how his speeches are landing. I have been watching his speeches, otherwise I wouldn't have said it. I'd consider myself to take a fairly objective view on American politics and from where I'm sitting, his performances on the stump are much the same as they've always been. That's not to say I think his performances are particular good. His meandering tactic of mixing the pre-prepared autocue speech with his random ad-lib flourishes have never been particularly polished, but that's his style. Occasionally he'll say something funny but for the most part it's all over the place. It was ever thus with Trump though, and I don't expect many Republicans are worried about Trump going into the debates having lost a step. 

With regards to the "decline" being a myth, youll see that I qualified my statement with "perceived" and the indication that it wasn't as bad as people think. I don't think it's possible to entirely dismiss the issue with the very broad suggestion that it was ignored though. Again, this is another area where we're not going to agree but my prediction is that this is going to be an issue at the election and I believe that it will cut through. I'll put it this way, it's on my radar and I live 5000 miles away, and it isn't on my radar because I've been watching Trump speeches on YouTube. The issues might well be localised but this could effectively be deployed as a national issue. The Democrats aren't going to lose any of the west coast States, but I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss the "coming to a town near you" factor. You might be heading to the ballot box with the firm understanding that it's all down to the "favourable climate", but I'd strongly urge President Biden not to use that line in any of the debates. 

[TxRover]

4 minutes ago, KH4 said:

I don't have any colours. If I found myself in the unenviable position of having to vote for either of these two roasters I'd climb Trumps big, beautiful wall in the other direction. It is however interesting that using a nickname one of the candidates dreamed up is evidence of a person's political leanings. If I'd called him Crooked Joe of the Biden Crime Family I could see where you're coming from, but he is sleepy isn't he? 

I'm happy to disagree agreeably on how his speeches are landing. I have been watching his speeches, otherwise I wouldn't have said it. I'd consider myself to take a fairly objective view on American politics and from where I'm sitting, his performances on the stump are much the same as they've always been. That's not to say I think his performances are particular good. His meandering tactic of mixing the pre-prepared autocue speech with his random ad-lib flourishes have never been particularly polished, but that's his style. Occasionally he'll say something funny but for the most part it's all over the place. It was ever thus with Trump though, and I don't expect many Republicans are worried about Trump going into the debates having lost a step. 

With regards to the "decline" being a myth, youll see that I qualified my statement with "perceived" and the indication that it wasn't as bad as people think. I don't think it's possible to entirely dismiss the issue with the very broad suggestion that it was ignored though. Again, this is another area where we're not going to agree but my prediction is that this is going to be an issue at the election and I believe that it will cut through. I'll put it this way, it's on my radar and I live 5000 miles away, and it isn't on my radar because I've been watching Trump speeches on YouTube. The issues might well be localised but this could effectively be deployed as a national issue. The Democrats aren't going to lose any of the west coast States, but I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss the "coming to a town near you" factor. You might be heading to the ballot box with the firm understanding that it's all down to the "favourable climate", but I'd strongly urge President Biden not to use that line in any of the debates. 

Check his polling numbers are the last two indictments, and how the declines aren’t reversing. The speech’s are now simply rehashes of his “greatest hits”, 20-30 minutes shorter and more subdued. His supporters don’t have the same responses, the chants are dying out. I want it to be true, but I still fear the fact he still has a chance.

Sleepy Joe is a pure MAGA nickname here, use at your own risk. The homeless stories peaked recently with that stabbing in San Francisco, that turned out to not be a homeless person.

[KH4]

1 hour ago, TxRover said:

Check his polling numbers are the last two indictments, and how the declines aren’t reversing. The speech’s are now simply rehashes of his “greatest hits”, 20-30 minutes shorter and more subdued. His supporters don’t have the same responses, the chants are dying out. I want it to be true, but I still fear the fact he still has a chance.

Sleepy Joe is a pure MAGA nickname here, use at your own risk. The homeless stories peaked recently with that stabbing in San Francisco, that turned out to not be a homeless person.

I'll take my chances. I may semi inadvertently antagonise the occasional free loving, herbal tea drinking democrat online but it's far less interesting when everyone takes a rigid anti Trump stance. 

If I was a staunch democrat in America id be anxious about the prospect of a second Trump presidency as well, especially given he may be motivated to use all levers at his disposal to settle some scores. In 2016 he appeared to quite quickly step back from the campaign "lock her up" stuff but this time around I'm not convinced it would just be rhetoric. 

My only real interest in the election is continued US support for Ukraine and NATO, so despite my best efforts at remaining balanced, id probably back the candidate that offered the most reassurance on that front. If the democratic will of the American people is to be less supportive of the war and NATO in general then I'd have to respect that, but my hope is that most of the talk is just brinkmanship with the aim of making sure everyone pays their share, especially those with a bigger stake in the conflict. It's not unreasonable to expect US taxpayers to get a fair deal, but it's the least opportune time for any rhetoric or action that undermines NATO unity. 

I will agree that at some events, particularly smaller crowds like this evening in New Hampshire, the overall atmosphere and reaction from the crowd has been occasionally lukewarm. That doesn't necessarily reflect a downturn in Trumps performance as a speaker, as I said earlier it's more or less the same tune played to the same rhythm as before. My feeling is that for most this won't be their first (or second) Trump show, and there will be an element of "been there, done that" which naturally diminishes the excitement somewhat. Theres also the fact that the entire energy of the thing is completely different now. Whilst there's always a lot at stake whenever the "leader of the free world" is being decided, I can't recall any instances when there's been so much personal jeopardy involved for one of the participants. The crowd have got the leader of the movement standing before them with everything on the line. He can thank the "wonderful" local republican representatives, and give the local police chief a pat on the bum by calling him a great guy, but amidst the glad handing, smiles and comical nicknames their man is in the s*** and it's getting deeper with every passing week. That's going to bring the tone and energy down a bit, and that's before you consider that unlike in 2016 and 2020 Teflon Don has a big fat loss in the defeats column (howls of election fraud notwithstanding). 

[TxRover]

3 hours ago, KH4 said:

I'll take my chances. I may semi inadvertently antagonise the occasional free loving, herbal tea drinking democrat online but it's far less interesting when everyone takes a rigid anti Trump stance. 

If I was a staunch democrat in America id be anxious about the prospect of a second Trump presidency as well, especially given he may be motivated to use all levers at his disposal to settle some scores. In 2016 he appeared to quite quickly step back from the campaign "lock her up" stuff but this time around I'm not convinced it would just be rhetoric. 

My only real interest in the election is continued US support for Ukraine and NATO, so despite my best efforts at remaining balanced, id probably back the candidate that offered the most reassurance on that front. If the democratic will of the American people is to be less supportive of the war and NATO in general then I'd have to respect that, but my hope is that most of the talk is just brinkmanship with the aim of making sure everyone pays their share, especially those with a bigger stake in the conflict. It's not unreasonable to expect US taxpayers to get a fair deal, but it's the least opportune time for any rhetoric or action that undermines NATO unity. 

I will agree that at some events, particularly smaller crowds like this evening in New Hampshire, the overall atmosphere and reaction from the crowd has been occasionally lukewarm. That doesn't necessarily reflect a downturn in Trumps performance as a speaker, as I said earlier it's more or less the same tune played to the same rhythm as before. My feeling is that for most this won't be their first (or second) Trump show, and there will be an element of "been there, done that" which naturally diminishes the excitement somewhat. Theres also the fact that the entire energy of the thing is completely different now. Whilst there's always a lot at stake whenever the "leader of the free world" is being decided, I can't recall any instances when there's been so much personal jeopardy involved for one of the participants. The crowd have got the leader of the movement standing before them with everything on the line. He can thank the "wonderful" local republican representatives, and give the local police chief a pat on the bum by calling him a great guy, but amidst the glad handing, smiles and comical nicknames their man is in the s*** and it's getting deeper with every passing week. That's going to bring the tone and energy down a bit, and that's before you consider that unlike in 2016 and 2020 Teflon Don has a big fat loss in the defeats column (howls of election fraud notwithstanding). 

Trump will leave NATO and abandon Ukraine, he’s already made that clear. Ohio and Montana are interesting bellwethers right now, just like Wisconsin was.

[Wee-Bey]

NATO withdrawal has to be ratified by Congress no ? There's also a cooling off period of a year and it would likely be the subject of a Supreme Court appeal. 

So it's highly unlikely to happen.

[Guest]

8 hours ago, KH4 said:

If the democratic will of the American people is to be less supportive of the war and NATO in general then I'd have to respect that, but my hope is that most of the talk is just brinkmanship with the aim of making sure everyone pays their share, especially those with a bigger stake in the conflict. It's not unreasonable to expect US taxpayers to get a fair deal, but it's the least opportune time for any rhetoric or action that undermines NATO unity. 

Victoria Nuland and her State Department should be paying for it given their pig-headed push for Ukraine to rupture in late 2013.