Skyline Drifter Posted July 23 Author Share Posted July 23 Ok, update from MD4: Group A Queen of the South and Aberdeen struggled early on but in the end the expected results happened here so............... Aberdeen top the group with a perfect 9 points. One point at home to Dumbarton Saturday will clinch the group. Three points will clinch a seeding. Second spot is a head to head between Airdrie and QoS who meet at Airdrie on Saturday, both on 6 points. Airdrie have much the better GD but that's irrelevant as a tie on points isn't possible. An Airdrie win in 90 minutes probably gets them through as a best runner up. A penalties win for either side will see them both go out almost certainly whilst Queen of the South probably need to win by a big margin or get help elsewhere to go through even if they do win. Dumbarton and East Kilbride are out. In the unlikely event of Aberdeen losing at home to Dumbarton they'll still win the group if Airdrie don't win and there's a decent chance they'd get a best 2nd place even if Airdrie do win. Group B Big away wins tonight for Dundee United and Ayr as expected but DUFC are in trouble here. They sit top on 9 points and a +5 GD but they are finished. If Falkirk beat Stenhousemuir on Saturday they are guaranteed to finish ahead of Dundee United and Ayr need a three goal margin v Buckie to do the same. Given that surely one of them wins, runners up here will finish on 9 points. Buckie and Stenhousemuir are now out. Group C Kelty are consistently inconsistent! They beat Hibs but lose to Peterhead. Group is all over the place. Hibs, Queens Park and Peterhead all sit on 6 points with a game to go. Kelty are on 4. However, given Hibs are playing Peterhead, Kelty can't win the group, and they aren't going through on 7 points if they sneak 2nd so Kelty are out as well as Elgin. Hibs will almost certainly win the group. They are 3 goals clear now. Even a single goal home win over Peterhead leaves Queen's Park needing a four goal win over Kelty. To win the group Queens Park need to win by 4 more of a margin than Hibs do. However, if Queen's Park can put away Kelty they'll likely go through as a best 2nd place side (see below). Group D Annan certainly gave it everything at Dundee but their late defeat knocks them out. They'll probably finish 2nd in the group but they can't go through on 7 points and neither will ICT even if they win at Dundee. The Dark Blues have already won the group before they play that game and nobody else is getting through here. Group E Livingston continue to negotiate their way through this with little fuss, though Spartans late win tonight keeps them honest and needing to avoid losing the head to head on Saturday to win the group. Spartans need to win at Livi to win the group (any margin win will do them) and if they did then Livi would be in danger of not going through. If Livi get a point then it's very unlikely anyone else goes through from this group. Dunfermline could still pinch 2nd on GD with 6 points but they're already out, as are Forfar and Cove. Group F Suddenly very interesting as Alloa did what they had to do v St Johnstone and East Fife won big too. Alloa lead on 8 points, East Fife have 7 and St Johnstone 6 going into the final game. St Johnstone play East Fife head to head so can clinch at least 2nd with a 90 minute win but unless it comes with a good few goals it probably doesn't get them through unless it wins them the group, which it would if Alloa fail to win at Morton. For Alloa, an outright win clinches the group. A penalties win does as long as East Fife don't win at St Johnstone in 90 mins. A penalties loss probably puts them out and a 90 minute loss almost definitely does. For East Fife a 90 minute win will definitely get them through regardless of the Alloa score. A penalties win probably does. Anything less and they are out. Group G Clyde's surprise win at Thistle mixes this one right up. If they can beat Montrose at home then they may well go through as a best runner up regardless of the tv game on the Sunday. They'd be certain of at least 2nd and might even top the group if Thistle win but they win by a couple more or if Thistle win on penalties. Motherwell need to win their game v Thistle (even if only on pens) to win the group. If they lose on pens they'll still win the group if Clyde don't win outright. Losing on penalties might still get them through too even if as runner up. Losing outright will knock them out. Thistle need to beat Motherwell over 90 minutes to most likely win the group and even if they didn't they'd probably be a best runner up. Group H Ross County are now three out of three with Stirling to come so look certain group winners and likely maximum point seeds. Although they can still get 2nd by beating Raith, Hamilton are out. They can't go through with 7 points. Raith need to beat Accies and post 9 points and a GD of + 4 or more to see if that will do them. Any less than 3 points isn't going to do.. 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted July 23 Author Share Posted July 23 (edited) Group A : Aberdeen likely winners and probably 12 points. Runner up finishes on 9 points if an outright winner Airdrie v QoS. Airdrie would have a GD of at least +9 if it's them and would get through. QoS might be as little as +2 and probably wouldn't. Likely both out if they draw. Group B : Falkirk probably win the group with any sort of win over Stenhousemuir. Ayr need a 3 goal victory over Buckie to get 2nd. As long as one of them wins, the worst case for 2nd place is 9 pts and a +4 GD Group C : Fully expect Hibs to clinch the group. Queen's Park can get 2nd on 9 points at least +6 with a win over Kelty. Anything less they'll go out. Group D : Dundee have won it. Nobody else getting through. Fair chance Dundee take a maximum 12 and get seeded alongside Aberdeen and either Livi or Ross County. Group E : Livingston probably win the group on 12. Nobody else through. Group F : God knows! It's in Alloa's hands and Morton are playing for nothing but still every chance St Johnstone win the group on 9 and a low GD! I'm expecting St Johnstone to beat East Fife which, unless they do so by 3 or more goals, means there won't be a runner up go through here. Group G : I guess Motherwell winning the group is most likely. Clyde's task is to beat Montrose. If they do they'll have a chance to go through with 9 pts and a GD of at least +5. If not runner up doesn't go through here. Group H : Ross County probably win the group with a full house. Raith need to win at Accies to get 9 pts and at least +4 GD. Any other result means no runner up going through here either. Still a lot of variables but it seems likely Groups A, B, and either C, G or H finishes with a 9 point runner up. If East Fife and Alloa both win there's be a 10 point runner up in Group F but that's a long shot. If East Fife do not win in Perth then: Airdrie (+9 at least) Queen's Park (+6 at least) probably have it in their own hands to get through. Clyde (+5 at least) Ayr (+4 at least) Raith (+4 at least) need big wins or some help from others. Dundee United (+5 but finished) need either Falkirk or Ayr not to win (or both) and no more than two of Airdrie, Queen's Park, Clyde and Raith to win either. Queen of the South need a LOT of help.................... Edited July 24 by Skyline Drifter 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted July 24 Author Share Posted July 24 (edited) Finally a selfish look at QoS and what we need to happen to go through. I'm not even entertaining the prospect of winning the group though we could in theory do so if we win at Airdrie and Aberdeen lose to Dumbarton AND there's a combined 7 goal swing. Not happening. So to be one of the three best runners up we must win in 90 minutes at Airdrie and then have no more than two of he following NOT happen: B - Both Falkirk and Ayr United fail to win in 90 minutes (or Ayr do win but do so by four goals less than us which isn't realistic) C - Queens Park fail to beat Kelty in 90 minutes E - Spartans fail to beat Livi in 90 minutes (or do beat them but do so quite heavily sending Livi's GD down below +2) F - Alloa lose outright v Morton Or Alloa win but St Johnstone beat East Fife on penalties. G - Clyde fail to beat Montrose in 90 minutes H - Raith fail to beat Hamilton in 90 minutes (or they do win but do so by at least 3 goals less than us). Realistically, a 90 min win for us combined with Queen's Park, Spartans and Clyde not winning outright and Morton beating Alloa would do us. Or one of those things happening but Raith failing to win. It's not that long a shot. Biggest problem will be us beating Airdrie considering we finished tonight with 10 fit outfield players. Edited July 24 by Skyline Drifter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Tennis Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 7 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said: Biggest problem will be us beating Morton considering we finished tonight with 10 fit outfield players. Yes, I can see that being a big problem too. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeodhasXD Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 9 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said: Right folks, sorry, not long back from East Kilbride. Update coming right up............... Can confirm that St Johnstone game was unhinged btw 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted July 24 Author Share Posted July 24 33 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said: Yes, I can see that being a big problem too. Oops. Fixed. In my defence it was nearly 2am! 4 minutes ago, LeodhasXD said: Can confirm that St Johnstone game was unhinged btw You're unhinged! I can confirm your best chance of progress was to beat St Johnstone yourself. Which you did, and put it in your own hands. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeodhasXD Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 7 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said: Oops. Fixed. In my defence it was nearly 2am! You're unhinged! I can confirm your best chance of progress was to beat St Johnstone yourself. Which you did, and put it in your own hands. I'd wager there'd be an inevitable reaction but has there ever been a group with the third and fourth seeds making it out of the group? East fife have a right good chance. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted July 24 Author Share Posted July 24 20 minutes ago, LeodhasXD said: I'd wager there'd be an inevitable reaction but has there ever been a group with the third and fourth seeds making it out of the group? East fife have a right good chance. Yes. Two years ago and again it was St Johnstone who were top seeds. Championship Ayr were 2nd seeds. We were 3rd, Annan were 4th and Elgin 5th. Annan won the group. We got through in 2nd with 8 points despite needing snookers on the last day. We needed 8 exact results which included you beating Dunfermline on penalties as I recall (couldnt afford either of you winning outright). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 4th seed qualified ahead of us last season aswell, FWIW. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted July 24 Author Share Posted July 24 17 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said: 4th seed qualified ahead of us last season aswell, FWIW. They did. But they didn't take the 3rd seed with them. St Johnstone have been genuinely dreadful at this cup since winning it haven't they! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 2 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said: They did. But they didn't take the 3rd seed with them. St Johnstone have been genuinely dreadful at this cup since winning it haven't they! Aye I know, was just bringing it up as it doesn't feel too common for "top" seeds to finish below the 3rd or 4th yet we seem to do it every season. Still not sure if the deal signed with devil for the double was worth it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted July 24 Author Share Posted July 24 8 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said: Aye I know, was just bringing it up as it doesn't feel too common for "top" seeds to finish below the 3rd or 4th yet we seem to do it every season. Still not sure if the deal signed with devil for the double was worth it. Still not sure whether the 'deal with the devil' was St Johnstone winning two cups in the same year or turning Shaun Rooney very breifly into prime time Paulo Maldini! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarapoa Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 (edited) Presume the three group winners with the best records join the five clubs in Europe as last 16 seeds? So therefore incentive for the Dons to ensure they beat Dumbarton on Saturday, despite only needing a point to top the group. Edited July 24 by tarapoa 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted July 24 Author Share Posted July 24 16 minutes ago, tarapoa said: Presume the three group winners with the best records join the five clubs in Europe as last 16 seeds? So therefore incentive for the Dons to ensure they beat Dumbarton on Saturday, despite only needing a point to top the group. Yep. There are still four clubs reasonably likely to make it to 12 points (Aberdeen, Dundee, Livingston, Ross County) so unless one slips, someone's getting full points and still not getting seeded. Goal differences for Dundee (+10) and Aberdeen (+8) are probably enough to be sure of seeding with any win. Livingston (+5) and Ross County (+4) will likely sort out the remaining seed between then if all four win. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CM. Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 It would be peak Clyde to finally perform in this cup and still not get through with 9 points and a good GD 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StewartyMac Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 If Dundee United finish 3rd with 9pts, I wonder if there will be as big an outcry to change the format of the competition as there was at the Euros when Ukraine went out with 4pts when others went through with 3pts. Probably not, because for the most part, Scottish football fans aren't doss b*****ds and actually understand how group stage football works. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim McLean's Ghost Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 So Seeds Celtic Rangers Hearts Kilmarnock Mirren Dundee Aberdeen County Non Seeds Hibs Falkirk St Johstone Spartans Motherwell/Partick Thistle Airdrie Queen's Park Dundee United Motherwell vs Thistle tomorrow for the last place. Thistle need a win to go through. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 14 minutes ago, Jim McLean's Ghost said: So Seeds Celtic Rangers Hearts Kilmarnock Mirren Dundee Aberdeen County Non Seeds Hibs Falkirk St Johstone Spartans Motherwell/Partick Thistle Airdrie Queen's Park Dundee United Motherwell vs Thistle tomorrow for the last place. Thistle need a win to go through. Guaranteed we get United. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cb_diamond Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 57 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said: Guaranteed we get United. Guaranteed one of the OF get Spartans... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 Just now, cb_diamond said: Guaranteed Rangers get Spartans... FTFY 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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