Maybe not but he has fucked it up spectacularly.
He has form for making impulsive decisions eg ripping up the Verity House agreement 5 minutes after signing it with COSLA by announcing the council tax freeze and not consulting his cabinet.
It's now clear he can't stay on. I imagine he will he sold sooner rather than later, if he hasn't already, that being beholden to Alba is intolerable.
Whilst the likes of Forbes might like him to own a WM defeat I think there will be enough MPs in the central belt thinking there is enough time to turn it around or the Humza effect hasn't bottomed out yet.