mcruic
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Posts posted by mcruic
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As there's no football at the moment, I thought it might be fun to simulate a Scottish Cup with all the senior and junior clubs of Scotland (278 clubs). Using Excel, and a wee program that calculates strength based on last season's final league tables and simulates matches with some random variables so there's the possibility of some shocks.
I'll post results here as the rounds are played. Straight knockout.
1st Round:
Entries: All Tier 6 and below. 202 clubs.
90 clubs bye to 2nd Round.
56 ties
2nd Round:
Entries: 90 byes, 56 winners from 1st Round, 17 LL clubs, 17 HL clubs. 180 clubs
90 ties
3rd Round
Entries: 90 winners from 2nd Round + 10 League 2 clubs. 100 clubs
50 ties4th Round
Entries: 50 winners from 3rd Round + 10 League 1 clubs. 60 clubs
30 ties5th Round
Entries: 30 winners from 4th Round + 10 Championship clubs. 40 clubs
20 ties6th Round
Entries: 20 winners from 5th Round + 12 Premiership clubs. 32 clubs
16 ties
Then straight knockout to the final.
7th Round
Quarter-Finals
Semi-Finals
Final0 -
Just now, FairWeatherFan said:
There is no Superleague in the East Juniors now. There's hasn't been since summer 2019.
Which is why Tier 6 would be a Tayside league or a merged North/Tayside league with Tier 7 having a Tayside league below.
I know there is no Superleague - they'd be comfortably mid-table if there was one now based on current membership.
Likewise, Tier 6 could be a Tayside league in the South or a merged Tayside/Fife league.
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5 minutes ago, FairWeatherFan said:
That's not the reason. The Highland League has already taken most of the strength of the NCL and North Juniors over the years. Look at how Montrose Roselea have progressed through the North Region into a comforable mid-table Superleague side. Having struggled to in the bottom half of the East Premier when they reached that peak.
You've got the existing link between Tayside and the North through the longstanding cup competition they share. In the Superleague re-organisation of the Junior game there was the attempt to merge Tayside & North. Which was long before the idea of the pyramid.
Tayside Juniors & possibility of Angus SPFL clubs in the Highland League improves the Highland League. Travel is only highlighted so as not to be used as an excuse for it not happening.
What exactly is the compelling reason for putting them in the "South"?
A longstanding cup competition (with only 2 or 3 inter-region games a season average for most clubs) is not a good reason - Tayside clubs also competed in a cup competition with Fife clubs, being located geographically between the North and Fife.
Likewise, the Lowland League/EoS League has now taken out most of the strength of the East Juniors. So Montrose Roselea would also be a comfortable mid-table Superleague side in the East Juniors now. North Juniors were always the weakest of the 3 (and before that 6) regions, so it's not really a surprise if a Tayside club plays in that league and does well.
And the "attempted" merger was exactly that - it didn't happen.
Travel is highlighted simply because leagues should be organised with this in mind (especially at tiers 6 and below, but even at tier 5). There is nobody disputing that (some) Tayside clubs would improve the Highland League. But they'd also improve the EoS and Lowland Leagues. We can't just shove teams into the North because they don't have many teams there.
The main reason I'd put them in the South (I'd prefer North/West/East like the juniors) is because they are not in the North of the country. Tayside is below the north-south midline of Scotland.
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6 hours ago, FairWeatherFan said:
They'd also face less travel in the Highland League than some traditional Highland League clubs.
Only 4 of them - Wick, Brora, Fort William and Clachnacuddin. They'd face more travel than all the rest.
As I said, Hawick would face less travel than Wick. Just because Dundee would have less travel than 25% of the current HL, that is not a compelling reason to put them in as "North".
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7 hours ago, Cyclizine said:
Tier 5 is the step below the national leagues, the SPFL is full of clubs who have consistently shown they are able to cope with travelling all over the country. Even to Elgin on a wet Tuesday night in February.
I'm sorry, but if clubs aren't prepared to concede that they have to travel further in a two division regional structure, the have no place playing in it and should stick to district football.
There'll never be a perfectly symmetrical structure so beloved of the spreadsheet pyramidistas here and any changes need to be made within the current structures.
Clubs at Tier 5 only have to travel half the country. They get at least a year of that to try it out before they have the chance to go up to Tier 4. Many clubs will be at Tier 5 for the foreseeable future - at least half of the Lowland and Highland League clubs are not going to win the league in the foreseeable future, so they will never need to travel Scotland-wide.
The "current structures" you talk about weren't there less than 10 years ago (Lowland League, West of Scotland League, for example) - That's about 2/3 of all the Tier 5 and Tier 6 clubs in Scotland who find themselves in leagues and structures that did not exist until 2013.
Your last sentence smacks of condescension and also a let's-make-do-with-the-crap-we-have attitude. Neither are particularly helpful or forward-looking, and this type of attitude is what's held back the pyramid for so long.
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Thanks - I realise people can probably get results and league tables if they look at all the individual websites of the associations - but having them all in one place seemed like a good idea!
I've added a "run" column to the league table (which gives the current streak of a team - x matches unbeaten or winless). The last "empty" column in the league table is for adjustments /(- or + points deductions/additions).
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2 hours ago, FairWeatherFan said:
How exactly is it an example of what things would look like in 4-5 years? It would take one Tayside club 4 years just to get to the Lowland League.
Take 4-5 and replace it with "however long it takes for leagues to stabilise" (Stabilise meaning the teams who are Tier 5 strength now actually reaching that level). That might be 10 years - that's not the point I'm trying to make. The point I'm making is that the top Tayside teams as a whole would have less travel in ANY Lowland structure compared with a similar Highland structure.
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3 hours ago, craigkillie said:
Tayside doesn't stop at Dundee though - in fact Dundee is the southernmost place that would be included in the Highland League. The Tayside Juniors go as far north as Angus.There's Forfar (2 clubs), Kirriemuir, Brechin, Arbroath, Carnoustie. Brechin, the furthest north, is only half an hour from Dundee. There's also Blairgowrie and Coupar Angus in Perthshire. Blair is only about 25 mins from Perth. Apart from those 8 clubs, the other 9 are in or just outside Dundee.
If you drew a line through the middle of mainland Scotland from West to East, Brechin, the most northerly town in the East Region juniors, would be on the South side of that line. It's latitude is closer to Gretna than it is to Thurso.
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3 hours ago, FairWeatherFan said:
Instead of an example why not put a Tayside club in the Highland League as Team 18. Do they travel less than Wick Academy? Yes. If Wick can do it, Tayside can do it.
Is their much difference for Tayside compared to Brora Rangers and Fort William in terms of travel? Not really and its only going to favour Tayside over the long term.
Hawick is closer to Aberdeen than Wick, so that's not really saying anything... If Wick can do it so can Hawick - so Hawick can join the HL...
There is 10-15 miles extra travel north of the HL-LL boundary for Tayside clubs, even without Brora, Wick and Fort William. That's given my example, which shows a possible lineup in 4-5 years, and with 3 extremely local derbies contributing almost nothing to the average milegae. At first, the travel for Tayside clubs stepping up would be even greater, as there would only be the 1 Tayside club at Tier 5 to begin with if they accepted promotion.
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2 hours ago, FairWeatherFan said:
That's sort of the point though. The Highland League as its presently constituted won't stay thay way. The actual Highlands already have their best teams in the current set up. The NCL might actually be a weaker T6 league that the SoSFL to the Lowlands. Fort William are expected to be the 'East Stirlingshire' once there's a pyramid in place and Strathspey Thistle were never able to make the North Super League in the Juniors. So they won't be holding on for long.
Sorted by PPG and including the 2019-20 season results for those that participated in the North Super League you're all time table of existing North Junior clubs looks like:
The strength and depth of the North Juniors is concentrated around the City of Aberdeen for the most part. If the Highland League pyramid had the North Juniors, Tayside Juniors, and NCL underneath it. Then the Highland League itself would not look like it does today for very long. That's without considering the likes of Brechin City or Montrose becoming Club 42 and making their way down from the SPFL.
I'm aware possibly the bottom half of the Highland League would eventually be at Tier 6, and there would be a lot of movement - possibly only 4 or 5 Tayside clubs would ever actually be at Tier 5.
If we take as an example, the Top 4 Tayside clubs from last year (Broughty, Carnoustie, Lochee Utd, Downfield), and put them into a putative "Future Highland League" (Top 10 Highland + 4 North Juniors + 4 Tayside Juniors) or put them into the equivalent Lowland structure (Top 6 Lowland + 4 West of Scotland + 4 East of Scotland + 4 Tayside).
Average travel distances are as follows:
HIGHLAND
Carnoustie - 93 miles
Lochee Utd/Downfield - 94 miles
Broughty - 98 miles
LOWLAND
Lochee Utd/Downfield - 60 miles
Broughty - 62 miles
Carnoustie - 73 milesEven if we take Brora and Wick out and replace them with Aberdeen teams, all 4 clubs have shorter travel distances in the Lowland structure.
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The reason I included Tayside in the EoS rather than Highland setup is that they've historically played as part of the East setup (not the North). Also some people seem to think that Dundee is in the Far North. Most clubs in Tayside are closer to Edinburgh than they are to the nearest HL club (Inverurie Loco Works). In fact, Dundee to Glasgow is only 2 miles more than Dundee to Inverurie, and Dundee is closer to Hawick than it is to Rothes.
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Just a note - the proposed "one place for all results/tables" has now been set up (senior/junior/amateur/welfare/women). I've set up spreadsheets for each association, and I've written the code in Python to pull results from spreadsheets once they are entered, and make webpages with tables/results for each league. I've also put in an automatically generated "form guide" showing results of last 6 games (most recent first), and a value between 0 and 100 based on this, along with a points per game column.
There's a randomly generated "example" league at the bottom to show how things would look when the results are entered.
Hopefully once the season starts I'll be able to keep this updated.
http://scotscores.theroonba.com/
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1 hour ago, FairWeatherFan said:
The first structure wasn't particular sensible to me which is why is why I pointed out the EoS would be forming a single division at Tier 7.
The second format may well happen if there ever was a situation where the remaining East Juniors were successful in joining the EoSFL. Although you might find a preference for seeding of Conferences to form a Second Division and then have North/South Divisions below. There's a reason why the East Region moved away from the North/Cental/South Divisions and there hasn't been much in the way of travel complaints within the EoSFL.
I think anything that reduces travel at lower tiers is more sensible than what we have. A true pyramid should have more parallel leagues the further we go down, not vertical divisions.
If the EoS has a single division at Tier 7, it will then have a single division at Tier 8 also. And if the West ends up with 4 single division tiers, we have a very crap looking pyramid.
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On 14/07/2020 at 21:45, Marten said:
The name "Championship" for the 2nd tier is already not sensible...
So call it what you want. Call it Premier 2, call it Division 2. Call it "jist aboot bit no quite". Structure is a sensible one. Better than what is (or isn't there at the moment.
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On 15/07/2020 at 13:45, Junior Pub League said:
Totally irrelevant, the EOS are in the pyramid the Juniors are not, clubs that embrace the pyramid should never be discriminated against to satisfy a local league that refuses to embrace change.
That's not what I said. Read what I said - this is an EXAMPLE of how it MAY look - not straight away. It's a possible structure, and I've put clubs in positions in some cases where I think they belong, based on nothing but playing strength. I don't give two hoots if anyone wants to call it "fantasy" - a couple of years ago, the Lowland League was a fantasy.
So again - nobody is advocating bringing in juniors and putting them ahead of senior clubs. But if you bring in the juniors, they WILL leapfrog the shitty senior clubs. So stopping them from doing so in the first season will make no difference at all in the long run. Kelty started from the bottom - they could have been in the SPFL next year. Made no difference to them except it took a year longer.
In summary - WE ALL KNOW that there are current agendas for how the EoS and Lowland League want to do things - but if and when the juniors join, they will have to adapt (those who join AND the leagues they join). Things can and do change.
So ffs, would all the naysayers stop attacking people that come up with sensible solutions and saying "oh that's just fantasy, that'll never happen", and stop getting all offended that your crappy senior teams are worse at playing football than some junior teams. It's a fact. Get used to it. The structure I came up with is a very workable solution IF all current senior and junior teams in the East region (+Tayside) come together and agree to be part of one structure. That's all. Nothing to get your knickers in a twist about.
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2 hours ago, Junior Pub League said:
In that scenario Linlithgow and Sauchie at Tier 8 wouldn't be allowed, is my understanding.
If/When Stirling Uni are relegated from the LL into the EOS then the current EOS team will be removed from the league.
And relegating clubs like Arniston and Easthouses to a level below current Junior sides would be stupendously wrong.
Arniston and Easthouses are at a playing level below many current junior clubs - I am not advocating putting them there straight away, but if all the current junior teams joined the pyramid, Arniston would end up below them on current strength...
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1 hour ago, FairWeatherFan said:
The EoS will be forming a single division below the Premier. They aren't going to split that by 3.
So have a 16-team Premiership, a 16-team Championship, and split it at Tier 8... Hey presto - single-division Tier 6 and Tier 7 of 16 teams, and 3 Tier 8 leagues of 14-16 teams.
Seems like a sensible structure to me. Essentially, it replicates the old East Juniors structure, with a region-wide Super and Premier League, and regional divisions below.
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16 hours ago, Ginaro said:
There's five clubs in the Borders/England, hardly something for the Fife clubs joining the EOS to be worried about.
True - my point was that there are a similar number of teams in Tayside that are more than a couple of miles further north than Dundee or Perth, which are roughly at the same latitude as the North of Fife. St. Andrews and Newburgh would be closer to most clubs than they are now. Most of the other Fife clubs are located close to the main Fife-Dundee road (the A92).
An alternative would be a 3-way Tier 7.
Tier 6 - EoS Premier - 16 clubs
Tier 7/8 - EoS North (Tayside+North Fife), EoS Central (rest of Fife, West Lothian, Falkirk, Stirling), EoS South (Edinburgh, Midlothian, East Lothian, Borders)
With the current clubs, this would result in something like this:
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It's a shame that Tayside seems to be seen as a "problem" for travel, even by teams in the East Juniors. There has to be a sensible way to include Tayside teams in the Pyramid that doesn't involve throwing them in below the Highland League. I'd quite like to see the EoS League regionalise at Tier 7 into Tayside/Fife and Lothian/Borders. Fife clubs don't seem to mind travelling to the Borders, so surely wouldn't object to travelling to Tayside...
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9 minutes ago, Marten said:
East will be 2 single divisions: 17 in the north, 13 in the south.
Going to be quite a spread - Lochee United v Forfar Albion, Whitburn v West Calder United, etc. seem like huge mismatches. 32-match season is quite a lot at junior level as well.
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Has there been any word on setups for next season? Or will this be decided at the SJFA AGM?
North seems to be 14-9-10 (with Rothie Rovers coming in)
East will be divided into North and South.
17 clubs in the North lends itself to a 9-8 division, but what about the South, with only 13 clubs - 2 divisions of 7 and 6, or a single division of 13?
No possibility of any teams joining the East Region for next season?
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On 21/06/2020 at 14:34, AlanCamelonfan said:
They havent itsgoing to 18. 15 from last yr plus lthv tynecastle and inverkeithing
I notice there are only 17 teams in the table on the EoS League website - is this an error? Inverkeithing are missing.
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Not sure, but I noticed that Inverkeithing are not in the Premier Division table on the EoS League website - only 17 clubs.
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The important thing is to move on. At a certain point in time, people were (and still are) unsure of the pyramid, for various reasons. It doesn't matter now. Once more clubs join, word will get around that it's not the Black Lagoon.
4
Simulated Scottish Cup
in Junior Football
Posted · Edited by mcruic
1st Round:
Scores will be updated as matches are played.
1 Nairn Saint Ninian 1-1 Dyce AET, Dyce 4-2 on pens
2 Newmachar United 1-2 Maud
3 Rossvale 4-2 Irvine Meadow
4 Banks o' Dee 2-2 Tynecastle AET, Banks o' Dee 4-3 on pens
5 Lanark United 1-4 Pollok
6 Bo'ness United Community 0-2 Saint Andrews United
7 Upper Annandale 3-1 Newton Stewart
8 Harthill Royal 4-5 Scone Thistle
9 Whitehill Welfare 2-0 Crossgates Primrose
10 Abbey Vale 3-1 Threave Rovers
11 Edinburgh United 1-2 Dunbar United
12 Girvan 0-2 Pumpherston
13 Lesmahagow 1-0 Saint Roch's
14 Camelon 4-0 Thurso
15 Saltcoats Victoria 0-4 Broughty Athletic
16 Hall Russell United 1-3 Dalry Thistle
17 Lochmaben 3-2 Eyemouth United
18 Bathgate Thistle 2-0 Glasgow Perthshire
19 Kilbirnie Ladeside 7-0 Forres Thistle
20 Lochee United 6-0 West Calder United
21 Yoker Athletic 2-1 Broxburn Athletic AET
22 Coupar Angus 0-6 Beith
23 Lothian Thistle Hutchison Vale 3-0 Tweedmouth Rangers
24 Tranent 3-1 Oakley United
25 Blairgowrie 1-1 Clydebank AET, Clydebank 5-4 on pens
26 Muirkirk 5-0 Forfar West End
27 Golspie Sutherland 1-0 Ardrossan Winton Rovers
28 East Craigie 1-0 Haddington Athletic
29 Hawick Royal Albert United 0-2 Livingston United
30 Bridge of Don Thistle 0-7 Kilwinning Rangers
31 Sunnybank 1-3 Jeanfield Swifts
32 East End 3-1 Easthouses Lily Miners Welfare
33 Spey Valley United 0-3 Montrose Roselea
34 Wigtown & Bladnoch 1-5 Cumnock
35 Rosyth 1-3 Petershill
36 Halkirk United 0-2 Darvel
37 Saint Cuthbert Wanderers 2-4 Ashfield
38 Auchinleck Talbot 9-0 Creetown
39 Burghead Thistle 1-3 Culter
40 Colony Park 2-1 Loch Ness
41 Inverness Athletic 0-1 Fraserburgh United
42 Kirkcaldy & Dysart 0-2 Largs Thistle
43 Ardeer Thistle 1-2 Armadale Thistle
44 Stoneywood Parkvale 2-0 Bunillidh Thistle
45 Larkhall Thistle 1-0 Deveronside
46 New Elgin 1-0 Sauchie Community
47 Musselburgh Athletic 3-2 Kirkintilloch Rob Roy
48 Carnoustie Panmure 2-0 Mid-Annandale
49 Heston Rovers 6-1 Newmains United
50 Orkney 0-1 Kirriemuir Thistle
51 Kello Rovers 3-1 Scourie
52 Lochar Thistle 2-2 Nithsdale Wanderers AET, Lochar Thistle 4-1 on pens
53 Aberdeen University 3-2 Stoneyburn
54 Cruden Bay 0-4 Hermes
55 Glentanar 0-6 Heriot-Watt University
56 Drumchapel United 2-0 Forth Wanderers AET