ecto
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Posts posted by ecto
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Braveheart, I would imagine will be shown on STV the night before the vote, just for a bit of patriotic fervour, god help us
Ah see what happened here the Yes vote get "hot under the collar" after a mention of Braveheart, but nothing at all about the above poll and latest betting, of course that's because they are not very good at allSky News reporting a YouGov poll for The Times, Yes 37% No 53% Dks 10% also Ladbrokes Politics still offering No at 1/6
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Sky News reporting a YouGov poll for The Times, Yes 37% No 53% Dks 10% also Ladbrokes Politics still offering No at 1/6
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Whilst you watch Last Night at the Proms as you wave your little union flag...
I have never watched the Last night of the Proms in my life, nor have I never owned a union flag, but once again anyone who does not support independence must be a union flag waving, Scotland hating, England loving loser, how more lazy and stereo- typical could you be
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Braveheart, I would imagine will be shown on STV the night before the vote, just for a bit of patriotic fervour, god help us
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I've kept a note of many of these votes at schools and colleges. Gleaned from twitter where admittedly it's mostly fellow yessers I follow and who post these things so I'm maybe not seeing any info on debates and polls where No has won, but anyway...
Dornoch Academy in February had 234 out of their 276 pupils vote in a mock referendum. Yes - 58.9%, No - 41.1%
Again in February, a before and after debate poll from QM Uni. Before Yes - 59%, No - 41%; After Yes - 71%, No - 21%, DK - 8%
12/3 Glasgow Schools Debate. Yes - 64%, No - 15%, DK - 21%
GCU Students Assoc debate, before and after. Yes - 54%, No - 20%, DK - 26%; Yes - 62%, No - 18%, DK - 20%
And finally, Celtic Huddleboard, 490 out of 531 Yes (92.3%)
Really should have stopped after your 1st paragraph, not much point on going after that
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Another huge Yes victory to report in a mock referendum at Dundee & Angus college on Wednesday.
Yes - 64.57%
No - 35.43%
No surprise there, it is in a SNP stronghold, would probably get the same result if you did a poll most places in Angus
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BBC breakfast news and how utterly London-centric it is. They send that fucking farmyard animal Steph outside London to report on utter pish and that's about it.
Thought BBC Breakfast came from Salford, so think when Steph is anywhere, she is around Manchester
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Hope it's a pie eating contest, wee Eck would fucking cruise it
No since his new diet, heard him on the TV saying he was off the "carbs", if he got any thinner he would fade away, Salmond fading away to nothing, sounds fine to me, no more of his "smug pus", bliss!
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Ok, and you're saying Yes will score significantly under 40%. So let's say the vote is 35% for Yes with a 60% turnout; That's around 840000 Scots voting Yes, with just over 1.5 voting No.
I cannot see it.
Or you choose not to see it, just saying, guess the turn out will also depend on the polls, if it looks like one side is heading for a good victory, or people just don't engage with the campaign, but hope the turn out is 90-95%, although I wont be it might be closer to 70-75%, which is good
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Scotland Tonight, that pair of presenters think they are the most important thing on it, they are terrible
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Panalbase had a poll last August which gave Yes Scotland a single point lead, until recently the only poll that had Yes Scotland over 40%
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Are you for real?
It is only my view
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This poll appears to have Yes Scotland at the same as they were in the Record/Survation poll, 2 weeks ago, and a couple of points up on the last ICM poll, a shift yes, but not a significant shift as the paper claims, as for John Curtice, knows his stuff, but he does come down on the side of the nationalists
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The polls have moved a couple of points for the Yes campaign, but not moved enough for them to feel a difference, so suddenly prompted by Daily Record/Sturvation poll, which polled 39% Yes, 48%, DKs 13%, when you take out the DKs, it becomes Yes 45%, No 55%, Yes Scotland and the SNP have taken the poll rating without the DKs and are running with it, hard
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I early 2012 there was 2 polls ipsos/MORI had 39% for Yes, Panelbase 37% for yes, it is today at best 40%, but don't worry still 6 months to go
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There are still a lot of voters that are not really engaging with the campaign as yet.
The referendum won't be lost or won in March. Many will make up their minds in the official campaign period.
Yes it's nice to see your campaign in the lead or your campaign showing momentum, but it's only a snap shot of how things are at the moment.
In my opinion it will be late August early September before we know who is likely to win this referendum.
A wee bit rose-tinted, glass half-full kind of look at it
I'd agree to an extent. But unless there is seismic shift in voting intentions then Yes still face an uphill battle.
For once a common sense view of the subject
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Alex Salmond said on the Andrew Marr show that Yes was up at 45% now.
What poll was that?....
The Daily Record/Survation poll had Yes 39% No 48% DKs 13%, if you removed the DKs it showed Yes 45% No 55%
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It says you should not put too much emphasis on a single poll but focus on the trend instead.
A best fit line approximation through the trend will tell you what's happening and will indicate error bars on your results.
It's the only statistically relevant thing to do.
The trend is clearly showing a narrowing of the gap.
That isn't in doubt and frankly I think you'll struggle to find anyone with a brain who doesn't privately acknowledge that.
The only important question about the polls is where they predict a crossover from majority No to majority Yes.
Do they predict that to happen before September?
I'm not sure if they are converging fast enough or not.
My point is the fact at the current rate they are narrowing, but at the present rate they will not crossover, before the vote
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No, you tried to dismiss a swing as unrealistic, despite the fact that the two polls in question were from two different companies. They don't reflect a swing; the change of in house polling makes a swing. And it has been categorically towards Yes since the White Paper.
It has moved 2% on panelbase towards Yes 38% to 40%, No losing the 2%, where as in Ipsos/MORI Yes vote has lost 2% going from 34% to 32%, No staying steady at 57%, YouGov showing Yes only up 3%, 32% to 35%, No only losing 1% now at 52%, so what does this say?
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No I think it shows what a lot of shite the polls actually are. Anyone that reads too much into them is being silly.
Nice try at conflating to different methodologies to cover up BitterTogether's fail: 1/10
Yes Scotland love polls, and they read loads into them, in fact like to quote them, when I mean quote them I mean, big up the good ones, an as for the methodology argument, you could say that about all polls that are done, but on this forum only poor polls for Yes Scotland are dismissed on these grounds, just my view
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3 weeks ago the Yes vote polled at 32%, that was a Ipsos/ Mori poll, now a panelbase poll has them at 40%, in the last 18 months the polls have shown a small 4% improvement for Yes Scotland, very unlikely that there would be a 8% rise in 3 weeks, would suggest the truth lies somewhere in-between,
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So far as I can see, this is within the margin of error of previous Panelbase polls and most of the "momentum" in other pollsters, when taken over the long-term, show exactly the same trend. Very little change.
Funny how, having gone out of fashion among Nat types when it became static, Panelbase, which has consistently placed Yes more favourably than any other pollster, has suddenly become the team to cheerlead again.
It is a fact that the best poll ratings for Yes Scotland have come in polls conducted by panalbase
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No
The one thing that makes me want to vote yes is the idea that a no vote is a vote to "rent" the union for another few years. If the result is something like 48-52 then salmons will probably have another go of it.
It will also depend if he keeps a majority at Holyrood
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The knowledge of sailing on this thread is incredible, girls not so much
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Latest Polls and Latest Odds
in The Politics Forum
Posted · Edited by ecto
This is the latest polls and latest odds thread, but once again no comment again on a poor poll or the latest odds