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Posts posted by ecto

  1. This poll appears to have Yes Scotland at the same as they were in the Record/Survation poll, 2 weeks ago, and a couple of points up on the last ICM poll, a shift yes, but not a significant shift as the paper claims, as for John Curtice, knows his stuff, but he does come down on the side of the nationalists

  2. The polls have moved a couple of points for the Yes campaign, but not moved enough for them to feel a difference, so suddenly prompted by Daily Record/Sturvation poll, which polled 39% Yes, 48%, DKs 13%, when you take out the DKs, it becomes Yes 45%, No 55%, Yes Scotland and the SNP have taken the poll rating without the DKs and are running with it, hard

  3. There are still a lot of voters that are not really engaging with the campaign as yet.

    The referendum won't be lost or won in March. Many will make up their minds in the official campaign period.

    Yes it's nice to see your campaign in the lead or your campaign showing momentum, but it's only a snap shot of how things are at the moment.

    In my opinion it will be late August early September before we know who is likely to win this referendum.

    A wee bit rose-tinted, glass half-full kind of look at it

    I'd agree to an extent. But unless there is seismic shift in voting intentions then Yes still face an uphill battle.

    For once a common sense view of the subject

  4. It says you should not put too much emphasis on a single poll but focus on the trend instead.

    A best fit line approximation through the trend will tell you what's happening and will indicate error bars on your results.

    It's the only statistically relevant thing to do.

    The trend is clearly showing a narrowing of the gap.

    That isn't in doubt and frankly I think you'll struggle to find anyone with a brain who doesn't privately acknowledge that.

    The only important question about the polls is where they predict a crossover from majority No to majority Yes.

    Do they predict that to happen before September?

    I'm not sure if they are converging fast enough or not.

    My point is the fact at the current rate they are narrowing, but at the present rate they will not crossover, before the vote

  5. No, you tried to dismiss a swing as unrealistic, despite the fact that the two polls in question were from two different companies. They don't reflect a swing; the change of in house polling makes a swing. And it has been categorically towards Yes since the White Paper.

    It has moved 2% on panelbase towards Yes 38% to 40%, No losing the 2%, where as in Ipsos/MORI Yes vote has lost 2% going from 34% to 32%, No staying steady at 57%, YouGov showing Yes only up 3%, 32% to 35%, No only losing 1% now at 52%, so what does this say?

  6. No I think it shows what a lot of shite the polls actually are. Anyone that reads too much into them is being silly.

    Nice try at conflating to different methodologies to cover up BitterTogether's fail: 1/10

    Yes Scotland love polls, and they read loads into them, in fact like to quote them, when I mean quote them I mean, big up the good ones, an as for the methodology argument, you could say that about all polls that are done, but on this forum only poor polls for Yes Scotland are dismissed on these grounds, just my view

  7. 3 weeks ago the Yes vote polled at 32%, that was a Ipsos/ Mori poll, now a panelbase poll has them at 40%, in the last 18 months the polls have shown a small 4% improvement for Yes Scotland, very unlikely that there would be a 8% rise in 3 weeks, would suggest the truth lies somewhere in-between,

  8. So far as I can see, this is within the margin of error of previous Panelbase polls and most of the "momentum" in other pollsters, when taken over the long-term, show exactly the same trend. Very little change.

    Funny how, having gone out of fashion among Nat types when it became static, Panelbase, which has consistently placed Yes more favourably than any other pollster, has suddenly become the team to cheerlead again.

    It is a fact that the best poll ratings for Yes Scotland have come in polls conducted by panalbase

  9. No

    The one thing that makes me want to vote yes is the idea that a no vote is a vote to "rent" the union for another few years. If the result is something like 48-52 then salmons will probably have another go of it.

    It will also depend if he keeps a majority at Holyrood

  10. First Minister on the BBC this morning suggesting that Yes has 45% in the latest polls.

    He didn't elaborate on where that assertion came from and Andrew Marr was too busy giving him an easy time of it to enquire further.

    Think he may be referring to the poll in the Daily Record that had the Yes vote at 39%, No at 48% and the DKs 13%, but if you take out the DKs, it gives you Yes 45%, No 55%

  11. This has been the pattern for some time.

    You'll also notice that in polls which have a poor headline figure for "Yes", suddenly Don't Knows are excluded to make it look a bit better.

    Also, if the previous poll by that pollster was lower for Yes (or for No), then they claim momentum and restrict things to only that pollster.

    If this isn't the case, they find a poll from a completely different pollster where Yes was lower and claim momentum.

    Have noticed all of the above, also these posts will be dismissed for some reason or another, there is a pattern certainly

  12. No real inroads in the polls yet YES are sitting at 45% excluding the DKs ? Are you just trying to be ignorant of the facts. Yes are there or there abouts with 6 months to go. I wouldn't like to pick a winner.

    This poll is discounting the DKs to get 45%, but the downside for Yes Scotland is it gives 55% to the NO camp, that STV poll is the same of the above mentioned

  13. No real inroads in the polls yet YES are sitting at 45% excluding the DKs ? Are you just trying to be ignorant of the facts. Yes are there or there abouts with 6 months to go. I wouldn't like to pick a winner.

    could you point me to poll that has yes vote at 45%, I have not seen that, the polls on uk polling report website do not have any polls with the yes vote on over 40% let alone 45%

  14. Au contraire. I feel BetterTogether have shot their bolt, as it were.

    All they have is scaremongering, and it hasn't worked.

    Cant see at all what you base this on, still 6 months to go, getting a bit tired of the "scaremongering" line from Yes Scotland and the SNP though

    Personally think the No campaign have been pish so far - Yes better organised. Yet no real change in voting intentions.

    Better Together have been poor so far that is true but you have to remember the SNP have been campaigning since 2011, but yes no real inroads with the polls, seems to be Yes Scotland do like to assume the DK,s will split 50/50, dangerous assumption to make, DK's should not be depended on until the actual vote

  15. The polls at that time were low 30s at best. I'm not putting any faith in the DKs. Without them we are at 45% in the latest poll. Yes has been gaining ground since before Christmas. Unfortunately for unionists... Better together are shockingly bad and I can only see them getting worse and worse as the wheels continue to fall off.

    45% really!

  16. I thought support for independence was at about 29 when the white paper came out. Its nearly 40 now if we includes DKs. Indeed no were above 60 once upon a time and now are lucky to hit 50. Any unionist that thinks YES have not gained any ground since September has their head firmly in the sand IMO. Which is a good thing :)

    Don't think you have reached 40% yet, the polls around the time of the white paper launch had the yes vote anything between 27% and 37%, so make of that what you will, you lot are putting a lot of faith in the DKs, oh and my head is well above ground and will be right up until September

  17. I actually think the polls should be really worrying the BetterTogether camp, they've thrown the kitchen sink at YES over the last 6 weeks and YES are still higher than they were before they produced their "wishlist".

    I don't agree at all, don't think Better Together has not really got started yet, if Yes Scotland cannot make ground just now they never will, the poll rating for Independence is not much different from the day the white paper was published

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