LongTimeLurker

If what is desribed below is really happening I guess the Ukrainians had multiple echelons of forces prepared for this advance: Apparently a town called Shevchenkove where the Russians were expected to try to hold the line against the advance has been surrounded and bypassed in a similar manner to what happened with the town of Balakliya yesterday and the Ukrainians are still advancing further towards Kupyansk which is the main railway hub that the Russians use to supply a huge chunk of occupied Ukraine.

...and the Iranians deny the drone thing is actually happening because they want to complete the nuclear deal with the west that would also help lift sanction on their oil production that would help solve some of the West's supply issues. What complicates that is the pro-Israel lobby in Washington. Ukrainians reported to be advancing fast in Kharkiv oblast today because there appear to be no Russian reserves available to stop them: Guess they needed to move so many forces to Kherson that they left themselves vulnerable here.

Meanwhile Igor Girkin (one of the military leaders of the Donbas revolt in 2014 who is able to look at what is happening objectively and has consistently accurately predicted what's likely to happen next in broad terms) says: He's been harping on about how Russia needs to go into full mobilisation mode since the war started and has yet to be shoved off his apartment balcony for not following Vlad's preferred talking points but may be testing the limits now of what will be tolerated.

Unlike in Kherson oblast the Ukrainian advances being reported in Kharkiv oblast by people on the Russian side appear to be quite rapid: possibly because the Russians don't have enough forces available to be able to effectively defend the entire front. The problem for the Russians is that if they don't counter this quickly their hold over a very strategic river crossing town called Izium (which was hyped up months ago as the battle that could decide the outcome of the war) will soon be under threat.

The Ukrainians capture another town this time in Kharkiv oblast: https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1567165247101845504 https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1567167772727169025

Firstly things aren't bad enough yet to prompt key Dutch and German political parties to drop their opposition to these measures, secondly EU storage levels are higher than targeted at this time in part due to UK LNG terminals with FSRUs soon to be in place on the German coast and US LNG exports about to ramp up again from the Texas terminal that was damaged in an explosion, and thirdly it's only Nord Stream being closed off so far which already had reduced flow due to the earlier turbines saga.

Right now we are paying a premium on LNG shipments to have the fracking done in Texas instead of in the Blackpool area and wood pellets from the Amazon are being burned instead of coal produced domestically at the Drax power plant as supposedly sustainable biomass to keep the Green lobby happy.

It's being wound down because gas production caused earth tremors to keep environmentalists happy. It could pretty much at a flick of a switch be ramped up again in a way that would replace a significant portion of the missing supply from Russia. Odds on it will be if there is a big enough crisis this winter just as is the case with German nuclear power plants.

...maybe but the Dutch could ramp up production from the Groningen gas field and the Germans could reverse their decision to phase out nuclear power.

The NATO meeting on Thursday to decide how to provide Ukraine with further military support is probably what it's mainly aimed at:

Ukrainians also advance in Donetsk oblast and gain a bridgehead over the Northern Donetsk river: and an issue with ball bearings for rail freight carraiges that was predicted months ago is really starting to bite apparently: Big problem for Vlad when about 50% of all freight in Russia moves by rail.

Might explain some of the strikes in Crimea and southern mainland Ukraine that were beyond what had been assumed to be HIMARS range if a few of those were supplied along with the M270 MLRS vehicles that Germany gave the Ukrainians. There appears to be plenty of skepticism though that Germany would ever do something more radical than the Americans and that development is far enough along for there to be something to send in the first place. Ukraine appears to have captured a small town they have been after for months at the northern end of Kherson oblast: Have seen it claimed that it was difficult to take because it was on relatively high ground compared to the surrounding countryside. Was viewed as the logistical launching pad for any future Russian attack on the large steel producing city of Kryvyi Rih further to the north, which is Zelensky's hometown.

Managed to keep a straight face when a distraught ex-girlfriend told me about how an entire cheerleading squad had chanted "what else do you do when you are down on your knees?" at her because she was wearing kneepads during a university level basketball game in Canada.

Dublin 4 is not happy about the Harfoots: https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio/2022/08/31/rings-of-power-the-new-hobbits-are-filthy-hungry-simpletons-with-stage-irish-accents-thats-1bn-well-spent/

...so much for BRICS. Think that's a sign that China sees which way the wind is blowing now because Unionpay is linked to their central bank rather than a private company and was being actively promoted six months ago as the alternative Russians could use after visa and mastercard pulled out.

Seems to be some concern over whether the railway station will happen for Winchburgh: https://www.scottishconstructionnow.com/articles/council-concerned-that-winchburgh-railway-station-may-not-materialise

Could be complete bollocks but have seen quite a few mentions of this today. The Germans probably didn't take the news about Nord Stream 1 being out of commission too well so might now become more active in this sort of way. If true, the Kerch Bridge would finally be in range:

Elsewhere:

The Elvish king looked a bit like Iain Connell from Burnistoun so it took me out of it a bit in a waiting for a punch line sort of way. Liked that they tried to address the nagging question (for me anyway when I read the books) of how the inhabitants of Moria could sustain themselves with food. The one part that seemed a bit daft to me in a Danerys flies Drogon at jumbo jet speed to save Jon north of the wall sort of way is how far offshore would the Elvish ship have to be to reach the undying lands and what were the odds of Galadriel swimming straight to a floating raft of shipwreck survivors? That needed some mystical intervention to make sense or maybe I missed it.

Thought it was quite good and much closer to Tolkien's material than some of the relentlessly negative stuff that has been pushed online about it has been implying. Satisfied in my own mind now that the people who have been doing that are simply racists for the most part. Given what Tolkien himself did with Eowyn as a character the Galadriel angle isn't as far from the LoTR in spirit due to some woke agenda as some people have been implying.

Think it would be surprising if Whitburn didn't help them out on that but they have left the SJFA which was also somewhat surprising. Hope that means HibeeJibee tried to arrange fixtures that would be relatively easy to rearrange for the SJC Saturdays.

Don't claim any huge insight on that one but the number two angle was being stated a lot in the media back in February. The knock against China when this gets discussed appears to be that they never intervene anywhere far from their borders unlike Russia in Syria and when they do try to take on one of their neighbours such as Vietnam in 1978 and India more recently in some limited border dispute they tend to come off second best. That conveniently overlooks the Korean War though.

War is inherently a disaster in terms of casualties. Whichever side is losing ground will talk that angle up. What's significant is that after 6 months there is still a Ukrainian state capable of launching an offensive against what was supposed to be the number two military superpower. Not many people were predicting that back on Feb 24th.

Think the Russians were claimed to be down to one operational pontoon ferry for resupply across the Dniepr by last night. No idea how true that is but that angle is no doubt just as important as what happens on the frontline. HIMARS attacks on four key bridges across the Dniepr and Inhulets have made it very difficult for the Russians to resupply their forces on the far side of the river. Vlad is unlikely to let go easily though because Crimea's water supply is on the line at Nova Kakhovka along with any hope of a land bridge to Transnistria.