Independence - how would you vote?

[xbl]

Was the referendum question the very first question asked with no prior introduction?

Yep. Try again.

[Jamaldo]

"Polls which produced markedly different outcomes. YouGov (59-26%) and TNS-BMRB (47-25%) both suggested a clear No vote majority, while Panelbase's findings, commissioned by the SNP, were 44-43% in favour of independence." Panelbase? I wouldn't trust any of their polls.

How is YouGov a more trustworthy polling organisation than PanelBase? The bias you are displaying here is absolutely embarrassing.

[Ad Lib]

And the evidence is showing that the Yes campaign IS getting through. Its all progressing well...

Citation required.

Even using Panelbase and the 4% swing figure, that's literally unchanged from 12 months ago. What is your definition of "evidence that the Yes campaign is getting through" and can you post it please?

ETA: in fact since February of last year, it indicates, if anything, lost ground, given the swing was down to 2.5% back then.

[Baxter Parp]

Prof. Pat Pending...i mean Curtice's first impressions.

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2013/10/new-panelbase-poll-different-commissioner-same-result/

[barrysnotter]

Was the referendum question the very first question asked with no prior introduction?

Yep.

Not that I don't believe you but do you have a link to that?

[xbl]

Citation required.

Even using Panelbase and the 4% swing figure, that's literally unchanged from 12 months ago. What is your definition of "evidence that the Yes campaign is getting through" and can you post it please?

ETA: in fact since February of last year, it indicates, if anything, lost ground, given the swing was down to 2.5% back then.

Read wings boy. In case you can't remember the url:

http://wingsoverscotland.com/

[Baxter Parp]

 

 

 

Not that I don't believe you but do you have a link to that?

Prof Curtice seems happy.

[Ad Lib]

Read wings boy. In case you can't remember the url:http://wingsoverscotland.com/

For my sins, I *did* read Wings. And the interesting thing about their "how have your views changed" question is that it did not attempt to break down whether or not the strength of feeling led to a change in the way any individual actually voted. The actual *voting* figures are unchanged in terms of the gap in 12 months and in reverse over 18. All that poll question tells us is that more people feel more strongly in favour of independence than of the Union than 12 months ago. It doesn't tell us who feels stronger. That the actual polls haven't shifted in 12 months suggests the converted are becoming more evangelical on both sides but that really not that many minds have been changed at all.

[xbl]

Prof Curtice seems happy.

He does indeed:

Now in this poll Panelbase have tried to assess whether their panel is disproportionately pro-Yes in composition by conducting half of the poll amongst members of their own panel and half amongst those who are members of another (unnamed) panel. The balance of Yes and No supporters in the two halves was identical (though the non-Panelbase panel respondents did contain a higher proportion (20%) of Don’t Knows than the Panelbase ones (15%)). That would seem to dispel the concern about infiltration.

Meanwhile, we should note too that in this poll the question on referendum voting intention was not preceded by questions about Holyrood vote intention. We amongst others had previously speculated that perhaps having just said they would vote for the (relatively popular) SNP, this practice encouraged some respondents to say they would vote Yes too. In truth this was already coming to seem unlikely – it cannot account for the fact that Panelbase’s polls are now also clearly notable for having more SNP supporters too. And now the company has produced much the same result even when it has not asked Holyrood vote intention first.

[xbl]

For my sins, I *did* read Wings. And the interesting thing about their "how have your views changed" question is that it did not attempt to break down whether or not the strength of feeling led to a change in the way any individual actually voted. The actual *voting* figures are unchanged in terms of the gap in 12 months and in reverse over 18. All that poll question tells us is that more people feel more strongly in favour of independence than of the Union than 12 months ago. It doesn't tell us who feels stronger. That the actual polls haven't shifted in 12 months suggests the converted are becoming more evangelical on both sides but that really not that many minds have been changed at all.

Well of course that would be your interpretation. You must have worked really hard to come up with that excuse.

[Colkitto]

Fail. You must try harder

So, so you believe Westminster had the best interests of Scotland?

Also, what benefits does Scotland get from remaining within the union that we wouldn't if independent?

I see they have opened up a foodbank near me.

Yes a foodbank

Scotland 2013

JIM SILLARS 'It won’t be better together, it will be skint & poorer together. Scotland will become Wonga-land & full of food banks"

[Mr. Bojangles]

To be honest, given the lack of preamble, this is the first time there's been a poll that means anything at all. Hopefully other polls follow suit.

[Ad Lib]

Well of course that would be your interpretation. You must have worked really hard to come up with that excuse.

No, it's not "my interpretation".

I asked you for evidence that the message was getting through. You pointed me to a website that asked a question that SPECIFICALLY did not take into account whether or not the way people intended to vote had actually changed. Therefore you did not prove that "the message is getting through" because a) the Panelbase polling numbers have not advanced in 12 months and have regressed in 18 and b) because the statistics in that question to which you refer in Wings leaves completely open the possibility that the overwhelming majority of sentiment change in the last 12 months has been by those who have already decided how they are voting.

[wingsoverperthshire]

"Polls which produced markedly different outcomes. YouGov (59-26%) and TNS-BMRB (47-25%) both suggested a clear No vote majority, while Panelbase's findings, commissioned by the SNP, were 44-43% in favour of independence." Panelbase? I wouldn't trust any of their polls.

Panelbase were consistently on the money with polls taken prior to the Scottish Elections. There is no reason to doubt them.

[thepundit]

 

How is YouGov a more trustworthy polling organisation than PanelBase? The bias you are displaying here is absolutely embarrassing.

 

Remember, debate wins the day. Calm down. You've already been told previously, and to be fair you acknowledged the error of your ways on that occasion.

[wingsoverperthshire]

No, it's not "my interpretation".

I asked you for evidence that the message was getting through. You pointed me to a website that asked a question that SPECIFICALLY did not take into account whether or not the way people intended to vote had actually changed. Therefore you did not prove that "the message is getting through" because a) the Panelbase polling numbers have not advanced in 12 months and have regressed in 18 and b) because the statistics in that question to which you refer in Wings leaves completely open the possibility that the overwhelming majority of sentiment change in the last 12 months has been by those who have already decided how they are voting.

I agree with you about the polls not moving (in either direction).

I view this as an absolute triumph for the Yes campaign, give the media campaign of the last year. It also shows this is absolutely do-able. A 5% swing in the aftermath of a creditable whitepaper and salmond debating is almost probable.

Out of interest, can you remember the Swing to the Lib-Dems created by NIck Clegg in the UK leader debates?

[WILLIEA]

I see they have opened up a foodbank near me.

Yes a foodbank

Scotland 2013

They are opening food banks on the Cote D'Azur which is generally recognised as being pretty prosperous!

[wingsoverperthshire]

   

Remember, debate wins the day. Calm down. You've already been told previously, and to be fair you acknowledged the error of your ways on that occasion.

They why do you throw around false accusations that you're clearly googling on a whim, and then run away?

There is absolutely a place on here for anyone that willing to present a creditable case of the UK union. Indeed I think most would welcome it. All you're doing is filling in the middle ground between Deegas and Reynard.

[Jamaldo]

   

Remember, debate wins the day. Calm down. You've already been told previously, and to be fair you acknowledged the error of your ways on that occasion

I am calm, I'm just unimpressed with your stance that because the PanelBase polls display results that aren't to your liking then they can't be credible.

I would have thought the unionists would have been delighted with the fact that all the polls barring the ones done by PanelBase show a majority leaning towards No. Yet they still seem incredibly rattled at these results.

Perhaps it's because their polls are in fact a crock of shit.

[thepundit]

I am calm, I'm just unimpressed with your stance that because the PanelBase polls display results that aren't to your liking then they can't be credible.

I would have thought the unionists would have been delighted with the fact that all the polls barring the ones done by PanelBase show a majority leaning towards No. Yet they still seem incredibly rattled at these results.

Perhaps it's because their polls are in fact a crock of shit.

All the polls barring one you say? Well what does that imply?