Independence - how would you vote?

[Swampy]

She says in that blog post she isn't saying what side she's on. That's fine, I respect that. But I don't think her personal convictions matter when her material is based almost entirely around Bitter Together talking points.

[ForzaDundee]

Listen to Calman on Richard Herring's Edinburgh Fringe podcast from last August and I'm sure I remember her making her viewpoint pretty clear. She's a unionist just like her dad.

[doulikefish]

http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2013/04/bbc-the-new-hammer-of-the-scots/

[Swampy]

I try to separate a comedian's material from their convictions. They don't always match up. But her material certainly is clear.

[DeeGas]

http://www.susancalman.com/category/blog

Apparently Susan Calman got a lot of online grief about her appearence on the News Quiz on Radio 4. What did she say?

Hmm,i guess Scottish comedian makes jokes about Scottish politics including the SNP.She refuses to say her opinion on the referendum for artistic reasons (not sure I believe this).Nationalists get upset and have ago at her.

It's interesting how we hope our comedian heroes share the same political views as us.

I admit I am disappointed in Frankie Boyles stand for independence.

My guess is she is a Unionist because the nationalist comedians and celebs have been quick to come forward.Why are they so confident about shouting "independence"?

From afar there does seem to be a "Scotland belongs to nationalists and not Unionists' boast from nationalist.

An element of threat and bullying perhaps.

Dunno.

[Swampy]

From afar there does seem to be a "Scotland belongs to nationalists and not Unionists' boast from nationalist.

An element of threat and bullying perhaps.

Dunno.

Meanwhile, on planet earth, which side is running with promotional material including "I love Scotland too much to want separation"?

[xbl]

A few points I want to respond to here, so apologies if it seems like spamming.

Fair question, I have no idea why I would treat this any differently.

Are you saying that independence will have no impact on my employment?

Even if I knew your job, this would be an impossible question to answer. I mean will staying in the Union have an impact on your employment? If (for example), you work at a factory making Union flags, then unless Rangers get bumped back up to the SPL rapid, your employment might take a hit. Alternatively, if you work in the renewable sector, then staying in the Union might just be deadly. If you work in a border fence making company, then it will have absolutely no impact. Take the much hyped shipbuilding sector. If we get independence, then the Unionists tell us we'll lose jobs...but if we stay in the Union, then the Unionists are talking about closing a Scottish shipyard.

If David Cameron decides that we're going to war in Syria, then there might be government cutbacks to pay for it, so if you work in the unimportant public sectors like housing, health, or education, then you might lose your funding. But then, if you work in a prosthetic limb factory, then you're laughing!

So while it might seem important to you, and I can understand why, really it is a short term consideration, impossible to answer either way, and is not a good basis to make your decision on. Plus, what happens if you vote no, we all vote no, and then in November 2014, your company gets sold to a Korean conglomerate. You're going to be left feeling pretty stupid!

[ICTChris]

I try to separate a comedian's material from their convictions. They don't always match up. But her material certainly is clear.

I didn't think she was very funny in that programme. There's surely a lot of comedic potential in Scottish politics but she wasn't particularly funny. The whole programme, which I've never lsitened to before, sounded shite, like that Stewart Lee Radio 4 sketch.

[xbl]

It would need to be absolutely seismic now.

I am right on this one. I'm also going to be right that the Tories cant win the next general election.

I was also right that the bond yields of Italy started the Eurozone crisis. I'm right about lots of things, you shouldn't take your patter from children like XBL and his clownshoe hingers oan.

Really? "Seismic" 10 points will do it, which by weird coincidence is the distance Iain Gray was ahead of Alex Salmond back when you were predicting his retirement. What we're seeing from the polls is that the No vote is falling. The Unionists have given it everything right up to and including court cases, and still their numbers fall. The walls are cracking in the media, the polls are trending downwards for No, and they are panicking about Devo Max. Once again, I'm happy with my prediction. Are you?

As for your lies about Italy. Lets not forget that Swampy disproved all your nonsense at the time, and of course, let us never forget your classic line: "and that will be that". You and your right wing ilk laughed at my predictions, and yet you did a remarkable disappearing line. I called it right again, you called it wrong. How is Italy getting on with using the Lira? How are Greece enjoying the Drachma? If these currencies aren't predominantly in use in Greece and Italy, then you were wrong.

[xbl]

I didn't think she was very funny in that programme. There's surely a lot of comedic potential in Scottish politics but she wasn't particularly funny. The whole programme, which I've never lsitened to before, sounded shite, like that Stewart Lee Radio 4 sketch.

From the descriptions, it sounded an awful lot like HIGNFY last week, where they told us Scotch to bugger off and also made reference to Salmond using the Euro. Which is fine, as it is a satirical show. Although it was an awful lot like Question Time a few months back, where again, they told us Scotch to bugger off. Its weird actually, I'm seeing a theme developing here...

[DeeGas]

Meanwhile, on planet earth, which side is running with promotional material including "I love Scotland too much to want separation"?

It's a hot potato and perhaps not the easiest time for some comedians who maybe on the Unionist side and therefore part of the disgusting Tory Westminster league.

It would be interesting what exactly was said to the comedian.

[PottingPlant]

Deegas still getting Britain and the UK union mixed up I see.

[DeeGas]

I try to separate a comedian's material from their convictions. They don't always match up. But her material certainly is clear.

Their importance is probably exaggerated in this age of celebrity.

But they do have a public voice and satirical comedy is influential in GB.

[xbl]

I'm realistic about the vote and I know it's unlikely, but let's be honest, if people vote no it's because they are utter fucking morons. There's no other explanation needed tbh.

I've posted up my reasoning before, but honestly, it is now looking extremely likely. If we crack 40% by the end of this year, its definitely won. The main independence momentum won't be until the final 2 or so months of the campaign, and anything before then is a bonus. We just need to make sure the no vote doesn't increase. And it isn't. Its gradually falling. If we hit 40% anytime before next January, then its over for the Unionists.

[Mr Rational]

I've been at work, have I missed anything?

[xbl]

I've been at work, have I missed anything?

Tonight exciting new developments:

Ad Lib has defended the indefensible.

Reynard has predicted that the Yes campaign are going to lose.

HB is missing presumed Deegas.

[Mr Rational]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_FmADVggCk

Correct?

[DeeGas]

Deegas still getting Britain and the UK union mixed up I see.

where's my latest mistake regarding that please?

I mean I do know what the UK is and GB,so it might not be a mistake.

Just the usual, a Scot goes on Radio 4 and jumps Jimmy McCrow, totally over-simplifying the currency debate, for example. (I know it's a supposedly satirical quiz but saying things like "Salmond said it would definitely be the Euro" - which never happened - isn't satire. It's lying.)

If people are going over the top with their criticism and levelling sexist insults at her, I completely disagree with that... but at the same time, if you go on the most Establishment radio station in the country and come out with jokes about Lulu for the largely pro-union audience, people are more than entitled to criticise you in a civil manner.

Oh, and I think Susan Calman is pretty funny in general, just for full disclosure.

People can make up their own mind on the general tenor of her and the rest of the guests' comments here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01s0ss6

Thanks for the link.

Usual stuff indeed.Nothing to get uppity about in the slightest.

[renton]

I've posted up my reasoning before, but honestly, it is now looking extremely likely. If we crack 40% by the end of this year, its definitely won. The main independence momentum won't be until the final 2 or so months of the campaign, and anything before then is a bonus. We just need to make sure the no vote doesn't increase. And it isn't. Its gradually falling. If we hit 40% anytime before next January, then its over for the Unionists.

It really depends on what proportion of the polling numbers are solid, and to what extent people's answers to polls are reliable (I'm thinking about a variation of shy tory syndrome) There is, looking at various polling information, a suggestion that a lot of people want everything up to Indy, without taking that final splash - what we don't have is an accurate breakdown of how they'll break.

Based on BitterTogether's YG poll, 44% answered as definitely voting no in 2014. There is no reason yet to think that, that number is weak. At the same time definitely No, 17 months out is a long time. However, if we take that number as solid, and we take the standard Yes historic polling info around 33 - 35% then you have 79% of the vote tied up 17 months out with 21% undecided. Given that Yes needs 9% of that just to break even, then BT only need 7% of those undecideds to kill the thing stone dead.

That's a razor thin margin, even for an optimist. I'd be more comfortable if I thought the No vote had a larger, softer edge to it. Time will tell I suppose.

[Ad Lib]

What if the candidate lived most of their life in Jamaca or Somalia or Germany?

Then they're unlikely even to be eligible to stand in UK elections (in the first two instances at least) as they'd not meet the citizenship criteria.

If someone was coming from there and decided to get involved with local council politics, it would be far less evidence of carpetbagging than someone from Edinburgh. If they had lived in Germany or Jamaica and subsequently moved to Essex then stood for council in Hampshire, it would be absolutely legitimate to point out that they were not part of the community they sought to represent, and hailed from elsewhere.